Miami Heat Playoff Chances 50/50

Lost to Indiana 84-90, playoff odds down 0.6 to 96.4%

16-6 .727

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Atlanta 107 LA Clippers 97	-0.1
Cleveland 98 Denver 88	-0.1

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Chicago 107 Miami 87	-1.2		-0.3

What If

Chances based on how well the Miami finish out the regular season. Explain

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

59	-76				In		100															1,231	*
58		42	-	18	In		99	1														1,668
57		41	-	19	In		98	2														3,602
56		40	-	20	In		97	3	0													7,368
55		39	-	21	In		95	5	0													13,847
54		38	-	22	In		91	9	0													24,667
53		37	-	23	In		85	15	0													40,573
52		36	-	24	In		78	22	0													62,330
51		35	-	25	In		69	31	0	0	0											90,695
50		34	-	26	In		58	41	1	0	0											121,392
49		33	-	27	In		46	51	3	0	0											153,818
48		32	-	28	In		33	60	7	0	0	0										180,598
47		31	-	29	In		21	63	15	1	1	0										199,695
46		30	-	30	In		11	58	26	2	3	0	0									205,928
45		29	-	31	In		5	44	36	6	8	1	0									199,805
44		28	-	32	In		2	26	39	12	17	4	0	0								180,517
43		27	-	33	100.0	%	0	11	30	18	26	11	2	0	0	0						154,010
42		26	-	34	99.8		0	3	16	19	28	23	9	2	0	0	0					122,164
41		25	-	35	97.6		0	0	5	13	20	29	21	9	2	0	0	0				90,524
40		24	-	36	86.3			0	1	6	8	21	29	22	10	3	0	0	0			62,627
39		23	-	37	58.1			0	0	2	2	7	19	28	24	13	4	1	0			40,468
38		22	-	38	25.3				0	1	0	1	6	17	26	26	16	5	1	0	0	24,660
37		21	-	39	6.1					0	0	0	1	5	14	25	28	18	7	1	0	13,859
36		20	-	40	0.9								0	1	4	13	25	30	20	7	1	7,306
35		19	-	41	0.0									0	1	3	14	26	32	19	5	3,615
34		18	-	42	Out										0	1	4	13	37	33	13	1,736
33		17	-	43	Out												1	7	23	40	28	674
32		16	-	44	Out												0	2	12	44	42	251
31		15	-	45	Out													1	8	29	62	125
30		14	-	46	Out															20	80	30
29		13	-	47	Out															13	88	8
16	-28				Out																100	169	*

Total:					96.4	%	24	34	16	5	8	5	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	2,009,960

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Miami finish out the regular season. Explain


If finish:					Win		Chance will play in first round
TW		W	-	L	title		Indiana	Atlanta	Charlotte	Detroit	Washington	Boston	Chicago	Cleveland	Toronto	Brooklyn	Philadelphia	Orlando	New York	Milwaukee

76		60	-	0	4.8	%		8	5	8	6	7	11	13	8	7	8	8	4	7
67		51	-	9	No							Yes
66		50	-	10	No											Yes
65		49	-	11	No				Yes
64		48	-	12	No				50	25					25
63		47	-	13	No			17	17	8		17		8	8			8	8	8
62		46	-	14	13.3			10	10	7	7	7	10	7	7	10	7	10	3	7
61		45	-	15	4.3			11	11	9	11	10	2	11	3	5	6	10	8	4
60		44	-	16	6.1			8	11	11	8	10	9	11	6	4	5	5	6	7
59		43	-	17	7.0		1	7	10	9	9	6	10	9	8	7	6	7	6	5
58		42	-	18	7.0		1	9	9	10	9	7	8	9	7	7	6	8	6	5
57		41	-	19	6.1		0	9	9	9	9	8	9	9	8	6	7	7	5	6
56		40	-	20	6.0		0	9	9	9	9	7	9	9	7	7	6	7	5	6
55		39	-	21	6.5		1	9	9	10	9	7	9	9	7	6	6	8	5	6
54		38	-	22	6.4		0	8	9	10	9	7	10	9	7	6	6	7	5	5
53		37	-	23	6.4		1	9	9	10	10	7	9	9	7	6	6	7	5	6
52		36	-	24	6.3		1	9	9	10	10	7	10	9	6	6	6	7	5	5
51		35	-	25	6.2		1	9	10	10	10	7	10	9	6	6	6	7	5	5
50		34	-	26	6.2		1	9	10	10	10	7	10	9	6	6	6	7	5	5
49		33	-	27	6.3		1	10	10	10	10	7	10	9	6	6	6	7	4	5
48		32	-	28	6.2		1	10	10	10	10	7	10	9	6	5	5	7	4	5
47		31	-	29	6.3		1	10	11	11	10	7	10	9	6	5	5	6	4	5
46		30	-	30	6.2		1	11	11	11	11	7	10	9	6	5	5	6	4	4
45		29	-	31	6.3		1	11	11	11	10	8	10	9	6	5	5	6	4	4
44		28	-	32	6.2		2	11	11	10	10	9	9	8	7	6	5	5	4	3
43		27	-	33	6.4		3	11	10	10	10	10	9	7	8	7	6	4	4	3
42		26	-	34	6.2		5	12	11	9	10	10	8	6	7	6	5	3	4	2
41		25	-	35	6.1		11	12	11	9	9	9	8	5	6	5	4	3	3	2
40		24	-	36	5.3		21	10	8	7	8	7	6	4	4	4	3	2	2	1
39		23	-	37	3.6		24	6	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	0
38		22	-	38	1.7		14	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
37		21	-	39	0.5		4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
36		20	-	40	0.1		1	0	0	0	0		0		0
35		19	-	41	No		0
16	-34				No

Total:					6.0	%	3.1	10.0	10.0	9.6	9.6	7.4	9.0	8.0	6.0	5.5	5.1	5.3	4.0	3.9

Games Above .500 (Full Screen)

Chance Will Make Playoffs (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Utah 86 Indiana 95	+0.1
Atlanta 107 LA Clippers 97	+0.1

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Chicago 107 Miami 87	+0.6

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

					100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

60	-76				100
59		43	-	17	100	0
58		42	-	18	98	1	1
57		41	-	19	97	2	2
56		40	-	20	94	4	3		0
55		39	-	21	88	7	5	0	0
54		38	-	22	79	12	9	0	0
53		37	-	23	66	20	14	0	0
52		36	-	24	50	28	21	1	0
51		35	-	25	33	36	27	4	0	0	0		0
50		34	-	26	18	41	31	10	1	0	0		0
49		33	-	27	7	39	28	23	3	0	0		0
48		32	-	28	2	31	19	40	5	2	0	0	0	0	0
47		31	-	29	0	21	8	54	7	8	1	0	1	0	0
46		30	-	30	0	11	2	56	6	20	1	1	2	1	0	0	0
45		29	-	31	0	5	0	44	2	34	3	3	3	5	1	0	0	0
44		28	-	32		2	0	26	0	39	3	9	2	14	2	2	0	0	0	0
43		27	-	33		0		11	0	30	2	16	1	25	2	9	1	1	0	0	0	0
42		26	-	34		0		3		16	1	18	0	28	1	22	2	7	1	1	0	0	0
41		25	-	35		0		0		5	0	13		20	0	29	1	21	2	7	1	1	0	0	0	0
40		24	-	36				0		1	0	6		8		21	0	29	1	22	1	3	4	3	2	0	0	0
39		23	-	37				0		0	0	2		2		7		19	0	28	0	2	6	11	11	7	3	1	0	0
38		22	-	38						0		1		0		1		6		17	0	0	2	7	16	21	17	8	3	1	0	0
37		21	-	39								0		0		0		1		5			0	1	5	15	23	24	16	7	2	0	0
36		20	-	40														0		1			0	0	1	3	11	20	26	23	12	4	1	0
35		19	-	41																0					0	0	1	7	16	27	26	15	6	1
34		18	-	42																						0	0	1	4	13	30	30	18	4
33		17	-	43																								0	0	6	17	31	33	12
32		16	-	44																										1	7	25	41	26
31		15	-	45																										1		15	35	49
30		14	-	46																													40	60
29		13	-	47																													13	88
16	-28																																	100

Total:					8	15	9	25	2	13	1	4	1	7	0	4	0	3	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0