After each simulated season I record the driver's record in addition to where they finished. This lets me show their probabilities broken down by record. Because I pull numbers from a hat when simulating a race, this chart tends to be generous. The driver will probably need to do better to make the Chase.

If they finish the season with:

    Points: Total points.

    Average: Average points per remaining races.

Chance will finish the season at position: Rounded percentages. As Count gets smaller there are fewer times to flush out the different possible finishing positions, so the numbers are less accurate.

Count: How many times I saw them finish the season with that many (or close to that many) total points. Notice the 1000 times I force them to win or not qualify in all their races. As Count gets smaller there are fewer times to flush out the different possible finishing positions, so the position numbers are less accurate.