I wrote a computer program that randomly generates results for each remaining race. Then it tallies each driver's position and repeats, millions of times. When the simulation "runs" a race it gives each of the top 36 drivers an equal chance of finishing in any of the 36 spots, like picking numbers from a hat. If you think a driver is better than that you could mentally bump his chances up. To help flush out each drivers highest and lowest possible seeds, in 1000 of the simulated seasons I force them to always win and in 1000 of the simulated seasons I never let them qualify. Here is an interactive chart that gives you a feel for how playing the season 10 million times sheds light on the possible finishing scenarios.

Chance will win championship: this is what we care about.

Change: the change since last week. If it was 60% last week and 62.5% today, the change would be 2.5. The biggest movers are bold.

Chance driver will finish the season at position: the numbers are rounded percentages, so a 0 means a very small number that rounded to 0. You can hover your mouse above a number to see the "full" percentage and what the driver did to get there. If there is a blank space for a position, the driver never finished there after any of the millions of simulated seasons, although it still might be mathematically possible.