Travis Kvapil Chase for the Cup

What If

Chances based on how well Travis Kvapil finishes out the season.

		100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:		Chance will be at position when the Chase starts
Points	Average	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20+	Count

3486	195	75	23	2																		1,000
3261	170			33	33	33																3
3216	165	2		20	38	22	11	4		2												45
3171	160		1	10	21	36	22	8	1	1												166
3126	155			1	9	28	31	22	9	1												904
3081	150			0	2	11	23	32	21	9	3	0										3,421
3036	145			0	0	2	8	22	29	23	11	3	1	0	0							10,916
2991	140				0	0	1	7	17	27	26	15	6	1	0	0						30,843
2946	135					0	0	1	4	13	23	27	20	10	3	1	0	0	0			76,519
2901	130						0	0	0	2	8	18	26	24	15	6	1	0	0			163,595
2856	125							0	0	0	1	4	12	23	27	20	9	3	0	0	0	313,644
2811	120								0	0	0	0	2	8	18	27	25	14	5	1	0	528,928
2766	115										0	0	0	1	5	14	25	28	19	7	2	800,093
2721	110											0	0	0	0	3	10	23	30	22	12	1,077,615
2676	105													0	0	0	2	7	20	30	41	1,298,172
2631	100														0	0	0	1	6	17	76	1,391,644
2586	95															0	0	0	1	4	95	1,325,738
2541	90																	0	0	0	100	1,120,622
2496	85																		0	0	100	825,348
2451	80																			0	100	530,079
2406	75																				100	292,909
2361	70																				100	135,918
2316	65																				100	51,666
2271	60																				100	15,268
2226	55																				100	3,425
2181	50																				100	488
2136	45																				100	31
1731	0																				100	1,000

Total simulation runs:																						10,000,000