Tony Stewart Chase for the Cup

What If

Chances based on how well Tony Stewart finishes out the season.

		100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:		Chance will be at position when the Chase starts
Points	Average	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20+	Count

3705	195	98	2																			1,000
3565	178	100																				1
3545	175	67	33																			12
3505	170	47	46	7																		111
3465	165	38	52	9	1																	527
3425	160	22	58	17	2	0																2,574
3385	155	11	50	32	6	0	0															9,286
3345	150	4	37	41	15	2	0															32,563
3305	145	1	21	42	28	7	1	0														88,203
3265	140	0	9	32	39	18	3	0	0													231,086
3225	135	0	3	17	38	32	9	1	0	0												484,747
3185	130	0	0	6	25	39	23	6	1	0	0											1,005,855
3145	125		0	1	11	32	35	17	4	1	0	0	0									1,693,502
3105	120		0	0	3	15	32	30	15	4	1	0	0	0								2,842,224
3065	115			0	0	4	17	30	28	15	5	1	0	0	0	0						3,899,270
3025	110			0	0	1	5	16	27	27	16	6	1	0	0	0						5,344,253
2985	105				0	0	1	4	13	25	27	19	8	2	0	0	0					5,998,625
2945	100					0	0	1	3	11	22	27	22	11	3	1	0	0	0			6,706,085
2905	95						0	0	0	2	8	18	27	25	14	5	1	0	0	0		6,126,581
2865	90							0	0	0	1	5	15	26	28	17	6	1	0	0	0	5,570,305
2825	85								0	0	0	1	4	12	25	30	20	7	1	0	0	4,050,492
2785	80										0	0	0	3	11	25	31	21	7	1	0	2,907,921
2745	75											0	0	0	2	10	25	33	22	7	1	1,623,637
2705	70												0	0	0	2	10	26	33	20	7	845,206
2665	65													0	0	0	2	11	28	32	27	360,504
2625	60															0	0	3	12	27	58	134,812
2585	55																0	0	3	12	85	32,632
2545	50																	0	0	3	97	6,352
2505	45																			0	100	601
2465	40																				100	33
2145	0																				100	1,000

Total simulation runs:																						50,000,000