Patrick Carpentier Chase for the Cup

What If

Chances based on how well Patrick Carpentier finishes out the season.

		100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:		Chance will be at position when the Chase starts
Points	Average	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20+	Count

2608	195																	0	3	13	84	1,000
2510	183																				100	1
2488	180																				100	4
2448	175																				100	14
2408	170																				100	95
2368	165																				100	521
2328	160																				100	2,586
2288	155																				100	9,397
2248	150																				100	32,424
2208	145																				100	87,878
2168	140																				100	231,665
2128	135																				100	484,795
2088	130																				100	1,005,803
2048	125																				100	1,693,805
2008	120																				100	2,841,040
1968	115																				100	3,895,605
1928	110																				100	5,339,811
1888	105																				100	6,000,736
1848	100																				100	6,703,205
1808	95																				100	6,128,888
1768	90																				100	5,576,329
1728	85																				100	4,050,379
1688	80																				100	2,909,223
1648	75																				100	1,624,957
1608	70																				100	845,486
1568	65																				100	359,712
1528	60																				100	134,234
1488	55																				100	32,345
1448	50																				100	6,394
1408	45																				100	639
1368	40																				100	29
1048	0																				100	1,000

Total simulation runs:																						50,000,000