Matt Kenseth Chase for the Cup

What If

Chances based on how well Matt Kenseth finishes out the season.

		100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:		Chance will be at position when the Chase starts
Points	Average	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20+	Count

3368	195		0	5	28	47	19															1,608
3348	188			2	19	46	33	0														1,988
3338	185			1	13	44	41	0														5,576
3323	180			0	7	37	54	1	0													18,762
3308	175			0	4	29	64	3	0													34,652
3293	170			0	2	22	71	6	0	0												85,470
3278	165			0	1	13	75	10	0	0												144,830
3263	160			0	0	8	75	16	1	0												253,862
3248	155			0	0	4	70	23	2	0	0											381,964
3233	150				0	2	62	31	5	0	0											581,714
3218	145				0	0	52	38	9	1	0											844,132
3203	140					0	40	43	15	2	0	0										1,152,569
3188	135					0	29	45	22	4	0	0	0									1,517,661
3173	130					0	19	41	30	9	1	0	0									1,934,386
3158	125					0	11	34	36	15	3	0	0	0								2,378,668
3143	120					0	6	25	38	24	7	1	0	0								2,811,664
3128	115					0	3	16	34	31	13	3	0	0	0							3,188,865
3113	110					0	1	9	27	35	21	6	1	0	0							3,539,921
3098	105						0	4	18	33	29	12	3	0	0							3,787,530
3083	100						0	1	10	27	34	21	6	1	0							3,916,115
3068	95						0	0	4	18	33	29	13	3	0	0						3,899,326
3053	90						0	0	2	10	26	34	21	6	1	0						3,756,860
3038	85						0	0	0	4	18	33	30	12	2	0	0					3,478,883
3023	80							0	0	2	10	27	35	21	5	0	0					3,071,174
3008	75							0	0	0	4	18	35	31	10	0	0					2,601,880
2993	70								0	0	2	10	30	38	19	1	0	0				2,122,110
2978	65								0	0	0	5	21	41	29	3	0	0				1,656,503
2963	60									0	0	2	13	37	40	7	0	0				1,191,701
2948	55									0	0	1	7	30	49	13	1	0				798,719
2933	50										0	0	3	20	53	21	3	0				485,311
2918	45											0	1	12	51	30	5	0				249,832
2903	40											0	0	6	45	38	10	1				92,025
2888	35												0	3	37	43	16	2				12,739
2783	0														0	10	42	44	4	0		1,000

Total simulation runs:																						50,000,000