Martin Truex Jr. Chase for the Cup

What If

Chances based on how well Martin Truex Jr. finishes out the season.

		100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:		Chance will be at position when the Chase starts
Points	Average	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20+	Count

3119	195						1	11	31	32	19	6	1	0								1,670
3099	188						0	3	16	30	31	15	4	0								1,849
3089	185						0	2	11	26	32	21	7	1	0							5,620
3074	180						0	1	4	15	30	30	15	4	0	0						18,699
3059	175							0	2	8	22	32	24	10	2	0						34,484
3044	170							0	0	3	13	28	31	18	5	1	0					85,390
3029	165							0	0	1	6	20	33	28	11	2	0					143,973
3014	160							0	0	0	2	11	27	34	20	5	0					252,600
2999	155								0	0	1	5	19	35	30	10	0	0				381,735
2984	150								0	0	0	2	10	29	38	19	1	0				581,219
2969	145									0	0	1	5	21	41	30	3	0				844,370
2954	140										0	0	2	12	37	42	6	0				1,152,098
2939	135										0	0	1	6	30	51	12	1				1,519,409
2924	130										0	0	0	2	20	56	19	1	0			1,933,550
2909	125											0	0	1	12	56	28	3	0			2,379,449
2894	120												0	0	6	51	37	5	0			2,810,604
2879	115												0	0	3	43	45	9	0			3,190,778
2864	110													0	1	34	50	15	0	0		3,539,530
2849	105													0	0	25	53	22	0	0		3,785,934
2834	100														0	18	52	30	0	0		3,917,909
2819	95														0	12	48	39	1	0		3,896,963
2804	90														0	7	42	48	2	0		3,754,806
2789	85														0	4	35	57	4	0	0	3,478,549
2774	80														0	2	27	64	7	0	0	3,075,300
2759	75														0	1	19	67	12	0	0	2,602,196
2744	70														0	0	12	68	18	1	0	2,124,964
2729	65															0	7	64	26	2	0	1,657,065
2714	60															0	4	58	33	5	0	1,191,989
2699	55															0	2	49	40	9	1	798,292
2684	50															0	1	38	45	14	1	484,416
2669	45																0	28	47	21	3	249,349
2654	40																0	19	45	29	6	91,472
2639	35																	13	41	35	11	12,769
2534	0																		0	7	93	1,000

Total simulation runs:																						50,000,000