Kevin Harvick Chase for the Cup
Finished 20th at Talladega, odds of winning the cup down 1.1% to 3.5% | Chance of winning the Chase:
| 3.5 | % | Change: | -1.1 | | | Average finish: | 6.25 | | | -0.10 | |
Points: 5547 Back: -171 Starts: 30 Wins: 0 How are these numbers calculated? (show) What IfChances based on how well Kevin Harvick finishes out the season. Explain (show) | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | | If finish: | Chance driver will finish the season at position | | | Points | Average | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | | Count | | | | | 6717 | 195 | 100 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1,000 | | 6657 | 185 | 100 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1 | | 6647 | 183 | 100 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1 | | 6639 | 182 | 100 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2 | | 6632 | 181 | 100 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1 | | 6627 | 180 | 100 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 6 | | 6621 | 179 | 100 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 8 | | 6615 | 178 | 100 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 8 | | 6609 | 177 | 100 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 10 | | 6603 | 176 | 100 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 15 | | 6597 | 175 | 100 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 22 | | 6591 | 174 | 100 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 47 | | 6585 | 173 | 100 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 27 | | 6579 | 172 | 98 | 2 | | | | | | | | | | | | 63 | | 6573 | 171 | 100 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 75 | | 6567 | 170 | 99 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | 141 | | 6561 | 169 | 100 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 105 | | 6555 | 168 | 99 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | 227 | | 6549 | 167 | 99 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | 198 | | 6543 | 166 | 99 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | 364 | | 6537 | 165 | 98 | 2 | | | | | | | | | | | | 333 | | 6531 | 164 | 97 | 3 | | | | | | | | | | | | 617 | | 6525 | 163 | 98 | 2 | | | | | | | | | | | | 491 | | 6519 | 162 | 97 | 3 | | | | | | | | | | | | 955 | | 6513 | 161 | 97 | 3 | | | | | | | | | | | | 802 | | 6507 | 160 | 97 | 3 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | 1,462 | | 6501 | 159 | 95 | 5 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | 1,264 | | 6495 | 158 | 94 | 6 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | 2,248 | | 6489 | 157 | 93 | 7 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | 2,028 | | 6483 | 156 | 93 | 7 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | 3,337 | | 6477 | 155 | 93 | 7 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | 2,856 | | 6471 | 154 | 90 | 10 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | 4,919 | | 6465 | 153 | 89 | 11 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | 4,163 | | 6459 | 152 | 88 | 12 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | 6,961 | | 6453 | 151 | 86 | 13 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | 5,951 | | 6447 | 150 | 84 | 15 | 1 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | 9,937 | | 6441 | 149 | 82 | 17 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | 8,206 | | 6435 | 148 | 80 | 19 | 1 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | 13,333 | | 6429 | 147 | 79 | 20 | 1 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | 11,386 | | 6423 | 146 | 76 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | 18,369 | | 6417 | 145 | 74 | 24 | 2 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | 15,169 | | 6411 | 144 | 71 | 26 | 3 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | 24,784 | | 6405 | 143 | 68 | 28 | 3 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | 20,207 | | 6399 | 142 | 65 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | 32,559 | | 6393 | 141 | 62 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | 26,412 | | 6387 | 140 | 59 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | 41,880 | | 6381 | 139 | 56 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 0 | | | | | | | | | 34,165 | | 6375 | 138 | 52 | 38 | 8 | 1 | 0 | | | | | | | | | 53,573 | | 6369 | 137 | 49 | 40 | 10 | 1 | 0 | | | | | | | | | 43,267 | | 6363 | 136 | 46 | 42 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | 68,015 | | 6357 | 135 | 42 | 43 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | 54,180 | | 6351 | 134 | 39 | 44 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | 84,512 | | 6345 | 133 | 35 | 44 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | 66,941 | | 6339 | 132 | 32 | 45 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | 103,557 | | 6333 | 131 | 29 | 45 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | 81,685 | | 6327 | 130 | 26 | 44 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 0 | | | | | | | | 126,214 | | 6321 | 129 | 23 | 43 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | 99,033 | | 6315 | 128 | 20 | 42 | 28 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | 150,997 | | 6309 | 127 | 17 | 40 | 30 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | 118,471 | | 6303 | 126 | 15 | 39 | 33 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | 178,028 | | 6297 | 125 | 13 | 37 | 34 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | 138,697 | | 6291 | 124 | 11 | 34 | 35 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | 209,008 | | 6285 | 123 | 9 | 32 | 36 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | 161,089 | | 6279 | 122 | 7 | 29 | 37 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | 240,765 | | 6273 | 121 | 6 | 26 | 37 | 23 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | 185,140 | | 6267 | 120 | 5 | 23 | 36 | 26 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | 273,771 | | 6261 | 119 | 4 | 20 | 36 | 28 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | 209,010 | | 6255 | 118 | 3 | 18 | 34 | 30 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | 308,718 | | 6249 | 117 | 2 | 15 | 33 | 31 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | | 233,267 | | 6243 | 116 | 2 | 13 | 31 | 33 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | | | 344,945 | | 6237 | 115 | 1 | 10 | 28 | 34 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | | | 258,879 | | 6231 | 114 | 1 | 9 | 26 | 34 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | | | 379,781 | | 6225 | 113 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 34 | 25 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | | | | 281,457 | | 6219 | 112 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 33 | 27 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | | | | 411,856 | | 6213 | 111 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 32 | 29 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | 304,888 | | 6207 | 110 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 31 | 31 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | | 444,595 | | 6201 | 109 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 28 | 32 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | | 324,084 | | 6195 | 108 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 26 | 33 | 21 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | | 472,805 | | 6189 | 107 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 33 | 24 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | 340,569 | | 6183 | 106 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 33 | 26 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | 497,339 | | 6177 | 105 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 32 | 28 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | 354,627 | | 6171 | 104 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 30 | 30 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | 517,859 | | 6165 | 103 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 28 | 31 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | | 361,794 | | 6159 | 102 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 26 | 32 | 21 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 532,308 | | 6153 | 101 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 33 | 23 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 365,479 | | 6147 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 32 | 26 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | | 541,786 | | 6141 | 99 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 31 | 28 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 363,889 | | 6135 | 98 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 29 | 30 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | 545,003 | | 6129 | 97 | | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 28 | 31 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | 357,144 | | 6123 | 96 | | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 25 | 32 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | 541,486 | | 6117 | 95 | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 32 | 24 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | 346,032 | | 6111 | 94 | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 32 | 26 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | | 532,696 | | 6105 | 93 | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 31 | 29 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 0 | | 329,456 | | 6099 | 92 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 29 | 30 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 0 | | 516,957 | | 6093 | 91 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 27 | 32 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 0 | | 310,520 | | 6087 | 90 | | | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 25 | 32 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 0 | | 496,937 | | 6081 | 89 | | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 33 | 25 | 10 | 2 | 0 | | 286,073 | | 6075 | 88 | | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 32 | 27 | 12 | 2 | 0 | | 469,718 | | 6069 | 87 | | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 31 | 29 | 14 | 3 | 0 | | 261,367 | | 6063 | 86 | | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 29 | 31 | 17 | 4 | 0 | | 439,529 | | 6057 | 85 | | | | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 27 | 33 | 20 | 5 | 1 | | 233,451 | | 6051 | 84 | | | | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 25 | 33 | 22 | 7 | 1 | | 405,680 | | 6045 | 83 | | | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 34 | 25 | 8 | 1 | | 206,385 | | 6039 | 82 | | | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 28 | 10 | 1 | | 367,844 | | 6033 | 81 | | | | | 0 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 33 | 30 | 12 | 2 | | 179,888 | | 6027 | 80 | | | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 31 | 32 | 15 | 2 | | 330,822 | | 6021 | 79 | | | | | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 29 | 34 | 18 | 3 | | 152,144 | | 6015 | 78 | | | | | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 27 | 36 | 20 | 4 | | 291,745 | | 6009 | 77 | | | | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 25 | 36 | 23 | 5 | | 127,822 | | 6003 | 76 | | | | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 37 | 26 | 6 | | 253,118 | | 5997 | 75 | | | | | | 0 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 37 | 29 | 8 | | 105,083 | | 5991 | 74 | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 36 | 32 | 10 | | 215,323 | | 5985 | 73 | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 35 | 34 | 12 | | 84,602 | | 5979 | 72 | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 33 | 37 | 14 | | 179,839 | | 5973 | 71 | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 32 | 39 | 16 | | 67,145 | | 5967 | 70 | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 30 | 41 | 19 | | 146,972 | | 5961 | 69 | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 27 | 43 | 22 | | 52,792 | | 5955 | 68 | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 43 | 25 | | 118,229 | | 5949 | 67 | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 43 | 29 | | 40,282 | | 5943 | 66 | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 44 | 32 | | 92,426 | | 5937 | 65 | | | | | | | | 0 | 3 | 17 | 44 | 35 | | 30,163 | | 5931 | 64 | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 43 | 39 | | 70,291 | | 5925 | 63 | | | | | | | | 0 | 2 | 14 | 43 | 42 | | 22,019 | | 5919 | 62 | | | | | | | | 0 | 1 | 11 | 41 | 47 | | 52,616 | | 5913 | 61 | | | | | | | | 0 | 1 | 10 | 39 | 50 | | 15,549 | | 5907 | 60 | | | | | | | | 0 | 1 | 8 | 38 | 54 | | 38,224 | | 5901 | 59 | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 7 | 34 | 58 | | 11,048 | | 5895 | 58 | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 6 | 33 | 61 | | 26,728 | | 5889 | 57 | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 5 | 30 | 65 | | 7,455 | | 5883 | 56 | | | | | | | | | 0 | 3 | 29 | 67 | | 18,159 | | 5877 | 55 | | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 71 | | 4,822 | | 5871 | 54 | | | | | | | | | 0 | 3 | 24 | 74 | | 11,333 | | 5865 | 53 | | | | | | | | | 0 | 2 | 22 | 76 | | 2,999 | | 5859 | 52 | | | | | | | | | 0 | 1 | 20 | 79 | | 7,077 | | 5853 | 51 | | | | | | | | | 0 | 1 | 16 | 82 | | 1,810 | | 5847 | 50 | | | | | | | | | | 1 | 15 | 84 | | 4,134 | | 5841 | 49 | | | | | | | | | | 1 | 14 | 86 | | 987 | | 5835 | 48 | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 12 | 88 | | 2,224 | | 5829 | 47 | | | | | | | | | | 1 | 11 | 88 | | 498 | | 5823 | 46 | | | | | | | | | | 1 | 9 | 91 | | 1,158 | | 5817 | 45 | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 8 | 92 | | 250 | | 5811 | 44 | | | | | | | | | | | 5 | 95 | | 553 | | 5805 | 43 | | | | | | | | | | | 8 | 92 | | 79 | | 5799 | 42 | | | | | | | | | | | 5 | 95 | | 201 | | 5793 | 41 | | | | | | | | | | | 6 | 94 | | 35 | | 5787 | 40 | | | | | | | | | | | | 100 | | 66 | | 5781 | 39 | | | | | | | | | | | | 100 | | 9 | | 5775 | 38 | | | | | | | | | | | | 100 | | 8 | | 5769 | 37 | | | | | | | | | | | | 100 | | 2 | | 5547 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | 100 | | 1,000 | | | Total simulation runs: | | 20,000,000 |
| Race | Finish | Start | Laps | Lead | Points | Bonus | Penalty | Total | Money | | | Daytona 500 | 14 | 16 | 200 | | | | 121 | | | | | | 121 | | 322,224 | | Auto Club 500 | 8 | 10 | 250 | | 1 | | 142 | | 5 | | | | 147 | | 148,761 | | UAW-Dodge 400 | 4 | 17 | 267 | | | | 160 | | | | | | 160 | | 200,636 | | Kobalt Tools 500 | 7 | 8 | 325 | | | | 146 | | | | | | 146 | | 124,086 | | Food City 500 | 2 | 10 | 506 | | 32 | | 170 | | 5 | | | | 175 | | 167,011 | | Goody's Cool Orange 500 | 12 | 11 | 500 | | | | 127 | | | | | | 127 | | 119,961 | | Samsung 500 | 11 | 21 | 338 | | | | 130 | | | | | | 130 | | 167,411 | | Subway Fresh Fit 500 | 19 | 17 | 311 | | | | 106 | | | | | | 106 | | 113,336 | | Aaron's 499 | 24 | 39 | 188 | | 1 | | 91 | | 5 | | | | 96 | | 129,736 | | Crown Royal Presents Richmond 400 | 8 | 11 | 410 | | | | 142 | | | | | | 142 | | 125,411 | | Dodge Challenger 500 | 39 | 11 | 265 | | | | 46 | | | | | | 46 | | 116,711 | | Coca-Cola 600 | 14 | 19 | 400 | | | | 121 | | | | | | 121 | | 146,636 | | Dover 400 | 38 | 34 | 326 | | | | 49 | | | | | | 49 | | 122,831 | | Pocono 500 | 13 | 28 | 200 | | | | 124 | | | | | | 124 | | 118,061 | | Michigan 400 | 12 | 10 | 203 | | | | 127 | | | | | | 127 | | 124,786 | | Toyota/Save Mart 350 | 30 | 32 | 112 | | | | 73 | | | | | | 73 | | 118,861 | | Lenox Industrial Tools 301 | 14 | 3 | 284 | | 54 | | 121 | | 5 | | | | 126 | | 129,961 | | Daytona 400 | 12 | 14 | 162 | | | | 127 | | | | | | 127 | | 146,761 | | Chicagoland 400 | 3 | 13 | 267 | | | | 165 | | | | | | 165 | | 219,436 | | Allstate 400 at the Brickyard | 37 | 18 | 148 | | | | 52 | | | | | | 52 | | 186,661 | | Pennsylvania 500 | 4 | 21 | 200 | | | | 160 | | | | | | 160 | | 153,936 | | Centurion Boats at The Glen | 6 | 11 | 90 | | | | 150 | | | | | | 150 | | 134,661 | | 3M Performance 400 | 8 | 38 | 200 | | | | 142 | | | | | | 142 | | 134,186 | | Sharpie 500 | 4 | 6 | 500 | | | | 160 | | | | | | 160 | | 184,511 | | California 500 | 4 | 33 | 250 | | | | 160 | | | | | | 160 | | 170,786 | | Chevy Rock and Roll 400 | 7 | 7 | 400 | | 80 | | 146 | | 5 | | | | 151 | | 130,011 | | Sylvania 300 | 10 | 11 | 300 | | | | 134 | | | | | | 134 | | 132,111 | | Dover 400 Number 2 | 6 | 24 | 400 | | 1 | | 150 | | 5 | | | | 155 | | 139,461 | | Kansas 400 | 6 | 36 | 267 | | | | 150 | | | | | | 150 | | 156,411 | | Amp Energy 500 | 20 | 39 | 179 | | 22 | | 103 | | 5 | | | | 108 | | | | | | 191 | | 3795 | + | 35 | - | 0 | = | 3830 | |
$4,385,352 | |
| Average | Start: | 18.9 | | Finish: | 13.2 | | Money: | $151,219 |
Old graphs: Points Above 12th Chance Will Make Chase |