Jimmie Johnson Chase for the Cup

What If

Chances based on how well Jimmie Johnson finishes out the season.

		100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:		Chance will be at position when the Chase starts
Points	Average	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20+	Count

3975	195	100																				1,000
3750	170	100																				7
3705	165	98	2																			40
3660	160	99	1																			187
3615	155	93	6	0																		876
3570	150	88	11	0																		3,484
3525	145	78	20	1	0																	11,112
3480	140	63	33	4	0																	30,925
3435	135	45	43	11	1	0																76,282
3390	130	27	47	22	3	0	0															163,759
3345	125	13	41	36	10	1	0															311,705
3300	120	4	27	43	22	4	0	0														529,135
3255	115	1	12	37	36	12	2	0	0													798,640
3210	110	0	4	22	40	26	7	1	0	0												1,080,512
3165	105	0	1	8	29	37	20	5	1	0	0	0										1,298,973
3120	100	0	0	2	13	31	32	17	5	1	0	0	0									1,391,779
3075	95		0	0	3	15	30	30	16	5	1	0	0	0								1,327,648
3030	90		0	0	0	3	14	27	29	18	7	2	0	0	0							1,117,766
2985	85				0	0	3	11	23	28	21	10	3	1	0	0	0					826,699
2940	80				0	0	0	2	8	18	26	24	14	5	1	0	0	0				529,704
2895	75					0	0	0	1	5	13	23	27	19	9	3	0	0	0			292,082
2850	70							0	0	0	2	8	18	26	24	14	5	1	0	0		135,485
2805	65									0	0	1	5	13	24	27	19	8	2	0	0	51,732
2760	60										0	0	0	2	9	21	28	24	12	3	1	15,561
2715	55												0	0	1	6	16	26	28	16	7	3,369
2670	50															1	5	13	26	25	31	505
2625	45																	3	6	25	66	32
2592	41																				100	1
2220	0																				100	1,000

Total simulation runs:																						10,000,000