Dale Earnhardt Jr. Chase for the Cup

What If

Chances based on how well Dale Earnhardt Jr. finishes out the season.

		100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:		Chance will be at position when the Chase starts
Points	Average	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20+	Count

4064	195	100																				1,000
3904	175	100																				9
3864	170	100																				103
3824	165	100	0																			517
3784	160	99	1																			2,611
3744	155	98	2																			9,465
3704	150	97	3																			32,709
3664	145	93	7	0																		87,856
3624	140	87	13	0																		230,335
3584	135	79	21	0	0																	483,618
3544	130	67	32	1	0																	1,003,796
3504	125	54	44	2	0	0																1,692,334
3464	120	39	55	6	0	0																2,839,875
3424	115	25	62	13	1	0																3,899,077
3384	110	13	61	23	2	0	0															5,341,985
3344	105	6	51	36	7	0	0	0														6,001,907
3304	100	2	36	45	16	1	0	0	0													6,707,105
3264	95	0	20	45	29	5	0	0	0													6,132,017
3224	90	0	8	34	40	15	2	0	0	0												5,575,590
3184	85	0	2	19	40	28	9	1	0	0	0	0										4,052,048
3144	80	0	0	7	27	36	21	7	1	0	0	0	0									2,908,436
3104	75		0	1	11	28	32	19	7	1	0	0	0	0								1,620,984
3064	70		0	0	3	12	26	29	19	8	2	0	0	0	0							842,787
3024	65			0	0	3	11	23	28	21	10	3	1	0	0	0						360,365
2984	60				0	0	2	9	19	26	23	13	5	1	0	0						132,930
2944	55					0	0	1	5	14	24	26	18	8	2	0	0					32,559
2904	50							0	1	3	11	20	28	22	11	3	1	0				6,356
2864	45									0	2	7	16	24	28	17	5	1				596
2824	40												3	33	17	13	27	7				30
2504	0																			0	100	1,000

Total simulation runs:																						50,000,000