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Toluca Title Chances 2015Apertura 50/50
Plays at Santos Laguna, title odds up 0.02 to 19%
22 points 7-1-3
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How are these numbers calculated?
Big Games
How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain
| If winner is:HomeDrawAway | ||||||
| Week of 10/2 | 100.0* | Chance wins title | 100.0* | Copa Libertadores | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Santos Laguna vs Toluca | -9.4-3.4+12.6 | -14.7-4.0+18.4 | -0.9-0.1+1.0 | |||
| Monterrey vs León | +4.3+1.2-5.4 | +3.3+0.7-4.0 | +0.1+0.0-0.1 | |||
| Pumas UNAM vs Guadalajara | -3.5+1.0+2.6 | -4.4+1.3+3.2 | -0.1+0.0+0.1 | |||
| Puebla vs Morelia | -1.3+0.5+0.9 | -2.6+0.9+1.8 | -0.1+0.0+0.1 | |||
| Dorados vs Veracruz | +0.5+0.2-0.7 | +1.6+0.7-2.2 | +0.1+0.0-0.1 | |||
| América vs Chiapas | -0.4+0.3+0.2 | -1.2+0.9+0.4 | -0.1+0.0+0.0 | |||
| Atlas vs Tigres UANL | *+0.0+0.1-0.2 | +0.2+0.3-0.5 | +0.0+0.0-0.1 | |||
| If winner is:HomeDrawAway | ||||||
| Week of 10/10 | 100.0* | Chance wins title | 100.0* | Copa Libertadores | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Monterrey vs Puebla | +0.9+0.4-1.3 | +1.8+0.8-2.6 | +0.1+0.0-0.1 | |||
| Veracruz vs Santos Laguna | -0.7+0.2+0.5 | -2.2+0.7+1.5 | -0.1+0.0+0.1 | |||
| Tijuana vs América | +0.4+0.1-0.5 | +1.2+0.5-1.7 | +0.1+0.0-0.1 | |||
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.
What If
Chances based on how well the Toluca finish out the regular season. Explain
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||||||||
| If finish: | Chance | Copa | Chance will finish season at seed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| TP | W | - | D | - | L | wins title | Libertadores | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | Count | ||||
| 40 | 6 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 99.4 | % | Yes | 99 | 1 | 9,160 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 38 | 5 | - | 1 | - | 0 | 96.6 | 100.0 | % | 97 | 3 | 0 | 47,412 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 37 | 5 | - | 0 | - | 1 | 92.8 | 100.0 | 93 | 7 | 0 | 50,755 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 36 | 4 | - | 2 | - | 0 | 86.6 | 99.8 | 87 | 13 | 0 | 112,501 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 35 | 4 | - | 1 | - | 1 | 76.3 | 99.0 | 76 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 238,632 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 34 | 3 | - | 3 | - | 0 | 64.2 | 97.2 | 64 | 33 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 140,345 | |||||||||||||||||
| 4 | - | 0 | - | 2 | 60.7 | 96.1 | 61 | 35 | 4 | 0 | 126,822 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 33 | 3 | - | 2 | - | 1 | 46.1 | 91.1 | 46 | 45 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 447,698 | |||||||||||||||||
| 32 | 3 | - | 1 | - | 2 | 26.9 | 76.3 | 27 | 49 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 476,653 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2 | - | 4 | - | 0 | 31.2 | 81.3 | 31 | 50 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 98,732 | |||||||||||||||||
| 31 | 2 | - | 3 | - | 1 | 14.6 | 60.2 | 15 | 46 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 421,815 | ||||||||||||||||
| 3 | - | 0 | - | 3 | 11.8 | 53.5 | 12 | 42 | 35 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 168,599 | ||||||||||||||||
| 30 | 2 | - | 2 | - | 2 | 4.5 | 32.6 | 4 | 28 | 41 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 671,822 | |||||||||||||||
| 1 | - | 5 | - | 0 | 6.3 | 40.2 | 6 | 34 | 41 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 37,193 | ||||||||||||||||
| 29 | 2 | - | 1 | - | 3 | 0.7 | 11.2 | 1 | 11 | 32 | 35 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 476,237 | |||||||||||||
| 1 | - | 4 | - | 1 | 1.2 | 15.3 | 1 | 14 | 37 | 33 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 198,059 | |||||||||||||||
| 28 | 1 | - | 3 | - | 2 | 0.1 | 3.0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 35 | 30 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 420,694 | |||||||||||||
| 2 | - | 0 | - | 4 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 31 | 34 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 126,177 | ||||||||||||||
| 0 | - | 6 | - | 0 | 0.1 | 5.2 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 38 | 26 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 5,749 | |||||||||||||||
| 27 | 1 | - | 2 | - | 3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 32 | 31 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 447,300 | |||||||||||
| 0 | - | 5 | - | 1 | No | 0.4 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 35 | 27 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 37,548 | |||||||||||||||
| 26 | 1 | - | 1 | - | 4 | No | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 29 | 32 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 239,073 | |||||||||||
| 0 | - | 4 | - | 2 | No | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 32 | 30 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99,506 | ||||||||||||
| 25 | 0 | - | 3 | - | 3 | No | No | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 27 | 32 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 140,661 | |||||||||||
| 1 | - | 0 | - | 5 | No | No | 0 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 33 | 24 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50,396 | |||||||||||||
| 24 | 0 | - | 2 | - | 4 | No | No | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 32 | 27 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 110,857 | ||||||||||
| 23 | 0 | - | 1 | - | 5 | No | No | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 27 | 31 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 47,521 | ||||||||||||
| 22 | 0 | - | 0 | - | 6 | No | No | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 31 | 28 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9,227 | |||||||||||
| Total: | 19.0 | % | 41.1 | % | 19 | 22 | 18 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5,457,144 | ||||||||
Points
Chance Will Win Championship
Updated Saturday, 2023-11-4 2:41 PM Eastern (GMT-04:00)
