SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

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4 a.m.

Querétaro Title Chances 2015Apertura 50/50

Beat Tijuana 2-1, title odds up 0.03 to 0.05%

15 points 4-3-5

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 10/2	100.0*	Copa Libertadores	100.0*	Average seed
Querétaro 2 Tijuana 1	+0.3		+1.8
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Monterrey vs León	+0.1*+0.0-0.1		-0.1+0.0+0.1
Pumas UNAM vs Guadalajara	-0.1+0.0+0.1		+0.1+0.0-0.1
Santos Laguna vs Toluca	+0.1+0.0-0.1		-0.1+0.0+0.0
Dorados vs Veracruz	+0.1+0.0-0.1
Puebla vs Morelia	-0.1+0.0+0.0		+0.1+0.0-0.1
América vs Chiapas			+0.0+0.0-0.1
Pachuca vs Cruz Azul			-0.0+0.1-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/10	100.0*	Copa Libertadores	100.0*	Average seed
Veracruz vs Santos Laguna	-0.1+0.0+0.1
Monterrey vs Puebla	+0.0+0.0-0.1		-0.1+0.0+0.0
Tijuana vs América			-0.1+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Querétaro finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance		Copa		Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	wins title		Libertadores		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	Count

30		5	-	0	-	0	9.9	%	50.0	%	10	40	36	12	2	0													25,465
28		4	-	1	-	0	0.3		6.3		0	6	24	37	24	8	1	0	0										116,310
27		4	-	0	-	1	0.0		0.5		0	1	6	21	35	26	10	2	0	0									124,143
26		3	-	2	-	0	No		0.0			0	1	7	23	34	24	9	2	0	0								219,456
25		3	-	1	-	1	No		No				0	1	4	17	31	29	14	4	0	0	0						464,957
24		3	-	0	-	2	No		No					0	0	2	11	26	32	20	7	1	0	0					248,143
		2	-	3	-	0	No		No					0	1	4	17	31	29	14	3	0	0	0					205,985
23		2	-	2	-	1	No		No						0	0	2	10	25	32	22	8	1	0	0				658,955
22		2	-	1	-	2	No		No							0	0	1	5	18	31	28	13	3	0	0			700,426
		1	-	4	-	0	No		No							0	0	2	9	24	33	23	8	2	0				97,224
21		1	-	3	-	1	No		No								0	0	1	5	17	31	29	14	3	0	0		412,421
		2	-	0	-	3	No		No								0	0	0	3	13	28	31	19	5	1	0		248,384
20		1	-	2	-	2	No		No										0	0	3	12	28	32	19	5	1	0	659,304
		0	-	5	-	0	No		No										0	0	4	17	31	30	14	3	0		18,362
19		1	-	1	-	3	No		No											0	0	2	10	26	35	21	6	0	467,927
		0	-	4	-	1	No		No											0	0	3	13	30	33	17	4	0	96,803
18		0	-	3	-	2	No		No												0	0	2	12	31	35	17	3	205,690
		1	-	0	-	4	No		No												0	0	1	9	28	37	20	3	124,556
17		0	-	2	-	3	No		No													0	0	2	14	36	36	11	220,529
16		0	-	1	-	4	No		No														0	0	4	22	45	29	116,656
15		0	-	0	-	5	No		No															0	1	9	40	51	25,448

Total:							0.1	%	0.4	%	0	0	1	2	3	4	5	7	8	9	10	10	10	10	9	7	4	2	5,457,144

Points

Chance Will Win Championship