"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 10/2100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Copa Libertadores100.0*Average seed
Querétaro 2 Tijuana 1 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Pumas UNAM vs Guadalajara-0.7-0.4+1.1
-2.4-1.4+3.7
-1.5-0.3+1.9
Monterrey vs León+0.3+0.1-0.3
+0.4+0.1-0.5
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Santos Laguna vs Toluca+0.2+0.1-0.2
+0.5+0.1-0.7
Dorados vs Veracruz+0.1*+0.0-0.1
+0.3+0.1-0.3
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Puebla vs Morelia-0.1*+0.0+0.0
-0.3+0.1+0.2
América vs Chiapas-0.2+0.1+0.1
Atlas vs Tigres UANL+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Pachuca vs Cruz Azul-0.1+0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/10100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Copa Libertadores100.0*Average seed
Veracruz vs Santos Laguna-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.3+0.1+0.3
-0.1+0.0+0.0
Tijuana vs América+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.2+0.1-0.3
Monterrey vs Puebla+0.1+0.1-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Guadalajara finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceCopaChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleLibertadores123456789101112131415161718Count
346-0-067.7%96.7%6829308,967
325-1-033.080.133471820047,126
315-0-114.155.21441341010050,381
304-2-06.135.56294020400111,978
294-1-11.112.41113235163000238,366
283-3-00.13.30318353011200140,488
4-0-20.12.10213323316400126,335
273-2-10.00.3004183329122000448,800
263-1-2No0.0003153131154000475,522
2-4-0No0.00162134271020099,284
252-3-1NoNo004163130143000421,685
3-0-3NoNo002112732206100169,321
242-2-2NoNo002112732206100671,685
1-5-0NoNo0041732291330037,520
232-1-3NoNo0017203126123000475,451
1-4-1NoNo0021126322171000198,086
221-3-2NoNo0016183027133000421,378
2-0-4NoNo003132731196100126,735
0-6-0NoNo02102633207105,970
211-2-3NoNo0003122631207100448,249
0-5-1NoNo0151730281430037,192
201-1-4NoNo00172132261020237,812
0-4-2NoNo0021126322171099,066
190-3-3NoNo001722342691140,324
1-0-5NoNo01517323113250,596
180-2-4NoNo00162137297111,890
170-1-5NoNo01524442647,740
160-0-6NoNo01837559,197
Total:0.7%2.8%12467891099876543115,457,144
Points
Chance Will Win Championship