How are these numbers calculated?

## Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

 Week of 7/31 100.0* Chance wins title 100.0* Copa Libertadores 100.0* Average seed Tijuana 1 Dorados 2 -0.1 Querétaro 1 Pachuca 2 -0.1 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Guadalajara vs Cruz Azul +0.6-0.4-0.6 +1.3-0.9-1.5 +1.1-0.6-1.5 León vs Veracruz +0.0+0.0-0.1 *-0.0+0.1-0.1 Morelia vs Tigres UANL -0.1+0.1+0.1 Toluca vs Pumas UNAM -0.1+0.1-0.0 Chiapas vs Santos Laguna -0.1+0.1+0.0 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Week of 8/7 100.0* Chance wins title 100.0* Copa Libertadores 100.0* Average seed Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara -0.5-0.1+1.2 -1.1-0.2+2.6 -0.9+0.1+1.8 Guadalajara vs Morelia +0.7-0.3-0.6 +1.7-0.7-1.5 +1.3-0.4-1.3 Monterrey vs Pachuca +0.1+0.0-0.1 +0.1+0.0-0.2 Pachuca vs América -0.1+0.1+0.1 -0.1+0.1+0.2 +0.0+0.0-0.1 Tijuana vs Veracruz +0.1+0.0-0.1 +0.1+0.0-0.2 América vs Dorados +0.0+0.0-0.1 +0.1+0.0-0.2 Puebla vs Toluca +0.0+0.0-0.1 *+0.0+0.1-0.1 Cruz Azul vs León +0.0+0.0-0.1 +0.1+0.0-0.1 Veracruz vs Chiapas -0.1+0.1+0.0 Pumas UNAM vs Atlas -0.1+0.1+0.1 León vs Tigres UANL -0.1+0.1+0.1 Dorados vs Querétaro -0.1+0.1+0.0 Toluca vs Morelia -0.0+0.1-0.0 Puebla vs Pumas UNAM -0.0+0.1-0.1 Chiapas vs Cruz Azul -0.1+0.1+0.1 Querétaro vs Santos Laguna -0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

## What If

Chances based on how well the Guadalajara finish out the regular season.   Explain

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance Copa Chance will finish season at seed TP W - D - L wins title Libertadores 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Count 43 -48 Yes Yes 100 35,573 * 42 13 - 3 - 0 99.8 % Yes 100 0 626 * 41 13 - 2 - 1 99.7 Yes 100 0 1,904 40 13 - 1 - 2 99.1 Yes 99 1 4,204 * 39 12 - 3 - 1 98.2 100.0 % 98 2 0 10,507 * 38 12 - 2 - 2 96.6 100.0 97 3 0 23,644 * 37 11 - 4 - 1 94.3 99.9 94 6 0 48,144 * 36 11 - 3 - 2 89.3 99.7 89 10 0 0 98,582 * 35 11 - 2 - 3 82.1 99.0 82 17 1 0 0 184,798 * 34 10 - 4 - 2 71.8 97.1 72 25 3 0 0 338,067 * 33 10 - 3 - 3 58.1 92.7 58 35 7 1 0 0 593,282 * 32 9 - 5 - 2 42.2 83.9 42 42 14 2 0 0 984,797 * 31 9 - 4 - 3 26.4 69.0 26 43 24 6 1 0 0 1,584,250 * 30 9 - 3 - 4 13.4 48.7 13 35 33 15 3 0 0 0 2,439,645 * 29 8 - 5 - 3 5.1 27.2 5 22 35 26 10 2 0 0 0 0 3,597,207 * 28 8 - 4 - 4 1.3 10.9 1 10 25 32 22 8 2 0 0 0 5,125,914 * 27 8 - 3 - 5 0.2 2.7 0 2 12 26 31 20 7 2 0 0 0 7,013,897 * 26 7 - 5 - 4 0.0 0.3 0 0 3 12 25 30 20 8 2 0 0 0 9,216,578 * 25 7 - 4 - 5 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 3 11 23 30 22 9 2 0 0 0 11,668,437 * 24 6 - 6 - 4 No 0.0 0 0 0 2 10 23 30 22 10 2 0 0 0 8,437,289 * 7 - 3 - 6 No 0.0 0 0 0 1 6 18 29 26 14 4 1 0 0 0 5,745,008 23 6 - 5 - 5 No No 0 0 0 1 6 18 29 27 14 4 1 0 0 0 16,601,830 * 22 6 - 4 - 6 No No 0 0 0 1 4 13 26 30 19 7 1 0 0 0 11,432,851 * 5 - 7 - 4 No No 0 0 0 1 6 18 29 27 14 4 1 0 0 7,248,156 * 21 5 - 6 - 5 No No 0 0 0 1 4 13 26 30 19 6 1 0 0 0 13,077,865 * 6 - 3 - 7 No No 0 0 0 2 9 22 30 23 10 2 0 0 0 7,090,355 20 5 - 5 - 6 No No 0 0 0 0 2 10 23 31 23 9 2 0 0 13,201,759 4 - 8 - 4 No No 0 0 0 0 3 11 24 30 22 9 2 0 0 7,726,217 * 19 5 - 4 - 7 No No 0 0 0 2 8 21 32 25 10 2 0 10,976,691 4 - 7 - 5 No No 0 0 0 2 10 24 31 22 8 1 0 9,857,463 * 18 4 - 6 - 6 No No 0 0 0 0 2 10 25 33 22 7 1 11,331,581 5 - 3 - 8 No No 0 0 0 2 9 23 33 24 8 1 8,546,261 * 17 4 - 5 - 7 No No 0 0 0 2 11 27 35 20 4 11,224,447 3 - 8 - 5 No No 0 0 0 3 12 28 34 19 4 6,928,426 * 16 4 - 4 - 8 No No 0 0 0 3 14 34 36 13 8,044,988 3 - 7 - 6 No No 0 0 0 4 17 35 33 11 7,807,410 * 15 3 - 6 - 7 No No 0 0 1 6 25 43 25 13,209,805 * 14 3 - 5 - 8 No No 0 0 0 2 14 42 43 10,487,212 * 13 3 - 4 - 9 No No 0 0 0 6 34 60 7,908,151 * 12 2 - 6 - 8 No No 0 0 2 23 74 5,644,603 * 11 2 - 5 - 9 No No 0 0 1 14 85 3,804,965 * 10 2 - 4 - 10 No No 0 0 8 92 2,413,245 * 9 1 - 6 - 9 No No 0 0 4 96 1,426,813 * 8 1 - 5 - 10 No No 0 2 98 783,034 * 7 1 - 4 - 11 No No 0 1 99 395,042 * 6 1 - 3 - 12 No No 0 100 180,835 * 5 0 - 5 - 11 No No 0 100 73,644 * 4 0 - 4 - 12 No No 0 100 26,053 * 3 0 - 3 - 13 No No 0 100 7,582 * 0 -2 No No 100 37,203 * Total: 0.9 % 2.4 % 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 11 254,646,840

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship