San Diego Padres Playoff Chances

Beat Diamondbacks 8-5, playoff odds up 1.1 to 2.6%
9-14   .391

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Diamondbacks 5 Padres 8 +0.4
+0.2
If winner is:HomeAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Diamondbacks vs Padres-0.5+0.6
-0.2+0.2

What If

Chances based on how well the Padres finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-Lplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
102-148In1004,510*
10192-47In95520
10091-48In97377
9990-49In9442163
9889-50In92602345
9788-51In87904714
9687-52In78160601,425
9586-53In71201802,758
9485-5499.9%6324211005,347
9384-55100.05130316109,528
9283-5699.939325222016,927
9182-5799.7273482840028,774
9081-5899.41732113371048,377
8980-5998.492715361320078,820
8879-6095.54191636204000124,347
8778-6189.311216312991000189,418
8677-6277.2061422341841000283,443
8576-6358.602111332281120000410,565
8475-6436.9017623342271000575,936
8374-6518.20421229311641000785,789
8273-666.8020418322812300001,040,277
8172-672.001017223324920001,342,908
8071-680.5000021126332161001,685,288
7970-690.1000031430311640002,051,178
7869-700.0000015193228122002,427,404
7768-710.00000192434238102,791,545
7667-720.000000313303317403,117,939
7566-730.00000162035281013,390,114
7465-74Out000021129351933,575,876
7364-75Out0001520373083,667,773
7263-76Out00002123239153,656,548
7162-77Out000162543263,541,681
7061-78Out00031743373,329,404
6960-79Out00011039503,043,354
6859-80Out000633612,700,627
6758-81Out00326712,325,227
6657-82Out00119801,949,112
6556-83Out00113861,584,766
6455-84Out009911,248,992
6354-85Out00694954,306
6253-86Out0496710,150
6152-87Out00298512,347
6051-88Out0199358,647
5950-89Out0199241,911
5849-90Out00100159,526
5748-91Out0100102,021
5647-92Out010063,173
5546-93Out010037,914
5445-94Out010021,928
5344-95Out010012,195
5243-96Out01006,492
5142-97Out01003,528
9-50Out1007,906*
Total:2.6%001112235681114192854,229,340

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Padres finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-LWin WSByeNationalsDiamondbacksCubsRockiesBrewersPhilliesMarlinsDodgersRedsCardinalsMetsPiratesBravesGiants
100-1486.6%Yes
9990-496.798111
9889-506.498011000
9788-514.69600011110000
9687-525.79411010101000000
9586-535.49111111111000000
9485-545.88911121111100000
9384-555.28322131222101000
9283-564.97623242233111000
9182-574.96934252334111000
9081-584.66045363445211110
8980-594.25056474556211111
8879-603.93967484666212111
8778-613.33067585776322111
8677-622.72167475766322111
8576-632.01355464554211111
8475-641.2833233333111110
8374-650.6411121221101000
8273-660.2200010110000000
8172-670.1100000000000000
8071-680.0000000000000000
7970-690.0000000000000000
7869-700.000000000000000
7768-710.0000000
7667-720.000
7566-730.00
9-74No
Total:0.1%0.90.20.20.10.20.10.20.20.20.10.10.10.00.00.0
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Diamondbacks 5 Padres 8 -0.4
If winner is:HomeAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Diamondbacks vs Padres+0.4-0.5

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
102-148100
10192-47955
10091-4887121
9990-4983151
9889-5083124
9788-517024510
9687-52573292
9586-53444013300
9485-543242205100
9384-55203828113000
9283-561130331862000
9182-57519302613410000
9081-582923292210310010
8980-5903122327209310200
8879-6001412222619920400000
8778-610014122124188292000
8677-62001310182217616510000
8576-630000281620122214510000
8475-640001614161822146200000
8374-65000151292023179310000
8273-660001628182421135200000
8172-670002026142223179310000
8071-68000001410182421146200000
7970-69000000261422241810310000
7869-70000000141018242213620000
7768-710000002715232417831000
7667-720000001513212520104100
7566-730000001411202621124100
7465-740000131020262312410
7364-750000013102128231130
7263-760000141223292181
7162-77000015152830174
7061-780000272133289
6960-790000312303718
6859-8000016234129
6758-810003154141
6657-8200193653
6556-8300053065
6455-840032374
6354-8500011782
6253-86011288
6152-8700892
6051-8800595
5950-8900397
5849-900298
5748-910199
5647-92199
5546-930100
5445-940100
5344-950100
5243-960100
5142-970100
5041-980100
4940-990100
9-48100
Total:000000001111111222334456689111316