Washington Nationals Playoff Chances

Lost to Dodgers 2-11, playoff odds down 6.5 to 7.1%

10-13 .435

Add your own league!

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win World Series	100.0*	Average seed
Nationals 2 Dodgers 11	-1.9		-0.1		-0.3
Giants 2 Mets 8	-0.1
Cardinals 5 Diamondbacks 1	+0.1
Cubs 4 Astros 3	-0.1
Rockies 2 Padres 5	-0.1
Pirates 2 Brewers 3	+0.1
Braves 4 Marlins 3	-0.1

If winner is:HomeAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win World Series	100.0*	Average seed
Nationals vs Dodgers	+1.1-1.2				+0.2-0.2
Cubs vs Astros	-0.1+0.1
Rockies vs Padres	+0.1-0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Nationals finish out the regular season. Explain

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

106	-149				In		100															50,344	*
105		95	-	44	In		98	2														117
104		94	-	45	In		98	2		1												332
103		93	-	46	In		97	2		1												783
102		92	-	47	In		96	2		2												1,567
101		91	-	48	In		94	3		3												3,516
100		90	-	49	In		90	5	0	5												7,495
99		89	-	50	In		85	8	0	7	0											15,037
98		88	-	51	In		79	11	0	10	0											29,553
97		87	-	52	In		71	15	0	14	0											56,175
96		86	-	53	In		60	20	1	19	0	0										104,219
95		85	-	54	100.0	%	49	24	2	24	1	0	0									187,233
94		84	-	55	100.0		36	28	3	30	2	0	0									324,631
93		83	-	56	100.0		25	29	5	36	4	0	0									545,432
92		82	-	57	100.0		15	27	8	41	8	1	0	0								895,698
91		81	-	58	99.9		8	23	10	42	15	2	0	0	0							1,417,175
90		80	-	59	99.5		4	17	11	40	23	5	0	0	0	0						2,180,453
89		79	-	60	98.3		1	11	12	34	31	10	2	0	0	0						3,264,293
88		78	-	61	94.8		0	6	10	24	35	19	5	1	0	0	0					4,732,243
87		77	-	62	86.9		0	3	8	15	33	28	11	2	0	0	0					6,661,802
86		76	-	63	72.8		0	1	6	7	26	33	20	6	1	0	0	0				9,112,772
85		75	-	64	53.4		0	0	4	3	16	31	29	14	3	0	0	0				12,101,221
84		74	-	65	32.9		0	0	2	1	7	23	32	24	9	2	0	0	0			15,598,079
83		73	-	66	16.5		0	0	1	0	3	13	28	31	18	5	1	0	0			19,520,689
82		72	-	67	6.6			0	0	0	1	5	18	31	28	13	3	0	0	0		23,735,569
81		71	-	68	2.1			0	0	0	0	2	9	24	33	23	8	1	0	0		28,033,469
80		70	-	69	0.5			0	0	0	0	0	4	15	30	32	16	3	0	0	0	32,135,780
79		69	-	70	0.1			0	0	0	0	0	1	7	22	35	26	8	1	0	0	35,778,978
78		68	-	71	0.0				0	0	0	0	0	3	13	31	35	16	2	0	0	38,714,961
77		67	-	72	0.0				0		0	0	0	1	6	23	38	26	6	0	0	40,653,693
76		66	-	73	0.0				0		0	0	0	0	3	14	36	35	11	1	0	41,471,251
75		65	-	74	0.0				0			0	0	0	1	7	29	41	20	2	0	41,075,583
74		64	-	75	0.0				0				0	0	0	3	20	43	30	4	0	39,514,221
73		63	-	76	0.0				0			0	0	0	0	1	12	39	39	8	0	36,897,023
72		62	-	77	Out									0	0	0	7	32	46	14	1	33,464,643
71		61	-	78	Out									0	0	0	3	23	49	22	2	29,464,162
70		60	-	79	Out										0	0	1	16	48	30	5	25,198,406
69		59	-	80	Out										0	0	1	10	43	38	8	20,900,063
68		58	-	81	Out										0	0	0	5	36	45	14	16,824,209
67		57	-	82	Out										0	0	0	3	28	49	21	13,145,802
66		56	-	83	Out											0	0	1	20	49	29	9,965,952
65		55	-	84	Out												0	1	14	47	38	7,328,726
64		54	-	85	Out												0	0	9	43	48	5,228,880
63		53	-	86	Out												0	0	5	37	58	3,616,403
62		52	-	87	Out												0	0	3	30	67	2,425,196
61		51	-	88	Out													0	2	24	74	1,578,339
60		50	-	89	Out													0	1	18	81	995,089
59		49	-	90	Out													0	0	13	86	606,300
58		48	-	91	Out														0	9	91	358,698
57		47	-	92	Out														0	6	94	205,613
56		46	-	93	Out														0	4	96	114,672
55		45	-	94	Out														0	2	97	61,023
54		44	-	95	Out														0	2	98	31,704
53		43	-	96	Out														0	1	99	15,825
52		42	-	97	Out															1	99	7,697
51		41	-	98	Out															0	100	3,519
50		40	-	99	Out															0	100	1,669
49		39	-	100	Out															0	100	727
10	-48				Out																100	50,776	*

Total:					7.1	%	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	6	8	11	15	18	18	10	4	606,415,480

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Nationals finish out the regular season. Explain


If finish:							Chance will play in first round
TW		W	-	L	Win WS		Bye	Braves	Brewers	Cubs	Dodgers	Reds	Diamondbacks	Mets	Phillies	Padres	Pirates	Giants	Cardinals	Rockies	Marlins

105	-149				6.7	%	Yes
104		94	-	45	6.6		99			0					0
103		93	-	46	5.4		99		0		0	0		0	0		0
102		92	-	47	6.8		98		0		0	0	0	0	1	0	0
101		91	-	48	6.2		97	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
100		90	-	49	6.4		95	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
99		89	-	50	6.3		93	0	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
98		88	-	51	6.2		90	0	2	2	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
97		87	-	52	6.0		86	1	2	2	1	2	1	2	2	1	1	0	0		0
96		86	-	53	5.9		81	1	3	3	1	3	1	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
95		85	-	54	5.6		75	1	4	4	1	4	1	3	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
94		84	-	55	5.3		67	2	5	5	2	4	2	4	5	1	2	0	0	0	0
93		83	-	56	4.9		59	3	6	6	2	6	2	5	6	2	2	0	0	0	0
92		82	-	57	4.5		50	4	7	7	3	7	3	6	7	2	3	0	0	0	0
91		81	-	58	4.1		41	5	8	9	3	8	3	7	8	2	3	1	0	0	0
90		80	-	59	3.5		32	5	9	10	3	9	3	8	8	3	4	1	0	0	0
89		79	-	60	3.0		24	5	10	10	4	9	4	8	8	3	4	1	0	0	0
88		78	-	61	2.4		17	5	9	9	3	8	4	7	7	3	4	1	0	0	0
87		77	-	62	1.7		11	3	7	8	3	7	3	5	6	2	3	1	0	0	0
86		76	-	63	1.1		7	2	5	5	2	5	2	4	4	2	2	0	0	0	0
85		75	-	64	0.6		4	1	3	3	1	3	1	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
84		74	-	65	0.3		2	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
83		73	-	66	0.1		1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
82		72	-	67	0.0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
81		71	-	68	0.0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
80		70	-	69	0.0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
79		69	-	70	0.0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
78		68	-	71	0.0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
77		67	-	72	0.0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0	0
76		66	-	73	0.0		0			0
73	-75				0.0		0
10	-72				No

Total:					0.1	%	1.1	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Nationals 2 Dodgers 11	+0.5

If winner is:HomeAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Nationals vs Dodgers	-0.4+0.4

What If

This is basically a projection of most winningest teams at the end of the season.

					100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

106	-149				100
105		95	-	44	97	3
104		94	-	45	95	5
103		93	-	46	91	9	0
102		92	-	47	88	12	1
101		91	-	48	82	17	1	0
100		90	-	49	72	25	3	0
99		89	-	50	62	32	6	0		0
98		88	-	51	51	38	10	1	0	0
97		87	-	52	38	41	17	3	0	0	0
96		86	-	53	26	41	24	7	1	0	0	0
95		85	-	54	16	36	31	14	3	0	0	0					0
94		84	-	55	8	26	34	22	8	2	0	0	0	0			0
93		83	-	56	3	16	30	29	16	5	1	0	0	0			0
92		82	-	57	1	7	20	29	25	13	4	1	0	0	0		0	0
91		81	-	58	0	2	10	22	28	22	11	4	1	0	0	0	0	0
90		80	-	59	0	1	4	12	22	27	20	10	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
89		79	-	60	0	0	1	4	12	22	26	20	10	3	1	0	2	0	0	0
88		78	-	61	0	0	0	1	4	11	21	25	20	10	3	0	5	1	0	0	0	0
87		77	-	62		0	0	0	1	3	10	19	24	19	9	2	11	2	0	0	0	0
86		76	-	63			0	0	0	1	3	9	17	22	16	5	18	7	1	0	0	0	0
85		75	-	64			0	0	0	0	0	2	7	15	19	10	23	16	6	1	0	0	0	0	0
84		74	-	65				0	0	0	0	0	2	6	13	12	20	25	15	6	1	0	0	0	0
83		73	-	66					0	0	0	0	0	1	5	9	11	24	25	16	6	2	0	0	0	0	0
82		72	-	67							0	0	0	0	2	5	4	14	24	25	17	7	2	0	0	0	0	0
81		71	-	68								0	0	0	0	2	1	5	14	24	26	18	8	3	0	0	0	0
80		70	-	69								0	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	13	23	26	19	9	3	1	0	0	0	0
79		69	-	70									0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	12	22	26	20	10	3	1	0	0	0	0
78		68	-	71										0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	11	22	27	21	10	3	1	0	0	0
77		67	-	72											0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	11	22	27	21	10	3	0	0	0	0
76		66	-	73											0	0		0	0	0	0	1	4	12	23	28	20	9	2	0	0	0
75		65	-	74												0			0	0	0	0	1	5	14	25	28	19	7	1	0	0	0
74		64	-	75												0				0	0	0	0	1	6	16	27	28	16	5	1	0	0	0
73		63	-	76												0				0	0	0	0	0	2	8	20	30	26	12	3	0	0	0
72		62	-	77																	0	0	0	0	0	3	11	24	31	22	8	1	0	0
71		61	-	78																		0	0	0	0	1	4	15	30	30	16	4	0	0
70		60	-	79																			0	0	0	0	1	8	22	34	25	9	1	0
69		59	-	80																				0	0	0	0	3	14	30	33	16	3	0
68		58	-	81																					0	0	0	1	7	23	36	26	7	0
67		57	-	82																						0	0	0	3	15	33	34	13	1
66		56	-	83																						0	0	0	1	8	27	39	22	3
65		55	-	84																							0	0	0	4	19	40	31	6
64		54	-	85																							0	0	0	2	12	36	40	11
63		53	-	86																								0	0	1	7	29	46	17
62		52	-	87																								0	0	0	3	22	49	25
61		51	-	88																									0	0	2	15	49	35
60		50	-	89																									0	0	1	10	45	44
59		49	-	90																										0	0	6	40	54
58		48	-	91																										0	0	3	34	63
57		47	-	92																											0	2	27	71
56		46	-	93																											0	1	21	78
55		45	-	94																												0	16	84
54		44	-	95																												0	11	89
53		43	-	96																												0	8	92
52		42	-	97																												0	6	94
51		41	-	98																												0	4	96
50		40	-	99																													3	97
49		39	-	100																													2	98
48		38	-	101																													1	99
47		37	-	102																													2	98
10	-46																																	100

Total:					0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	3	3	4	4	5	6	6	7	8	8	8	8	7	6	4	2	1