New York Mets Playoff Chances 2017 50/50

Lost to Diamondbacks 2-3, playoff odds down 0.04 to 0.05%
54-69   .439

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win World Series100.0*Average seed
Nationals 3 Mets 2 -2.0
-0.2
-0.3
Rockies 5 Reds 3 -0.3
Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win World Series100.0*Average seed
Nationals 11 Mets 4 -1.7
-0.2
-0.3
Rockies 1 Reds 8 +0.3
Braves 4 Astros 16 +0.2

What If

Chances based on how well the Mets finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-Lplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
9339-0In0800191664,171
9238-1In1001
9137-2In6427911
9036-3In3425014131
8935-498.3%202502521,193
8834-595.21134140508,566
8733-686.643295113047,674
8632-771.012165227200226,719
8531-849.101741429100902,495
8430-926.30022448223003,104,313
8329-1010.100010383812109,300,287
8228-112.6000220432860024,504,612
8127-120.40000732421720057,108,844
8026-130.00002164233700118,525,423
7925-140.000005304419100220,026,123
7824-150.00001154336500366,579,480
7723-160.000005304815100549,678,405
7622-170.00001164929500743,530,809
7521-180.000006364215100908,627,300
7420-19Out0012043305001,004,194,064
7319-20Out0008334315101,004,172,471
7218-21Out00219453030908,643,198
7117-22Out00083646100743,496,835
7016-23Out0022153221549,693,870
6915-24Out000948375366,567,961
6814-25Out003354912220,012,610
6713-26Out001215424118,517,656
6612-27Out0011494057,107,482
6511-28Out004385824,488,465
6410-29Out0225739,305,527
639-30Out0015853,102,988
628-31Out0892902,597
617-32Out0397225,913
606-33Out019948,046
595-34Out01008,476
584-35Out01001,228
54-57Out100664,316*
Total:0.0%00000013818212218728,013,990,260

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Mets finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-LWin WSByeDodgersNationalsRockiesDiamondbacksCubsBrewersCardinalsMarlinsPiratesBravesPadresRedsGiants
9339-011.3%80136000000
9238-1NoYes
9137-2No64279
9036-35.33743172111
8935-47.9220452621110
8834-57.013005027111100
8733-65.87004827121100
8632-74.7300412311110000
8531-83.1100291611110000
8430-91.7000169000000000
8329-100.60006300000000
8228-110.20002100000000
8127-120.00000000000000
8026-130.00000000000000
7925-140.00000000000
7824-150.0000
7723-160.000
75-760.00
54-74No
Total:0.0%0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday100.0*Lottery seed
Nationals 3 Mets 2 +0.6
Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Nationals 11 Mets 4 +0.6

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
9339-0325016200
9238-1100
9137-29182745
9036-32112739183
8935-4418343011202
8834-50062033259205
8733-6017202921811300
8632-700161825175263000
8531-8001513191136122000
8430-90003101331261241000
8329-100002813262617720000
8228-1100022921272212410000
8127-1200001515252617720000
8026-130000003102128231231000
7925-14000000161628271651000
7824-1500000141327301961000
7723-16000000311263320610000
7622-170000021027332061000
7521-180000021128331951000
7420-1900003132932184000
7319-2000003153132153000
7218-210001417333112100
7117-2200016213728700
7016-230001928401930
6915-2400002143934101
6814-25000052642234
6713-2600113383711
6612-270005264524
6511-28001144341
6410-290063460
639-300022276
628-31011288
617-320694
606-330298
595-34199
584-35199
54-57100
Total:00000000000000112357101213131210621