Chicago Cubs Playoff Chances 50/50

Lost to Pirates 2-4, playoff odds down 1.3 to 5.7%

18-28 .391

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

If winner is:HomeAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win World Series	100.0*	Average seed
Cubs vs Brewers	+1.0-1.0		+0.1-0.1		+0.3-0.3

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win World Series	100.0*	Average seed
Cubs 6 Giants 7	-2.5		-0.3		-0.3

What If

Chances based on how well the Cubs finish out the regular season. Explain

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

101	-134				In		100															5,518	*
100		82	-	34	In		98			2												188
99		81	-	35	In		98	1		1												479
98		80	-	36	In		96	2		2												1,042
97		79	-	37	In		92	4		4	0											2,209
96		78	-	38	In		89	5	0	6	0											4,567
95		77	-	39	In		84	7	0	8	0											8,939
94		76	-	40	In		75	12	0	12	1											17,409
93		75	-	41	100.0	%	64	16	1	18	1	0										32,256
92		74	-	42	100.0		51	20	2	26	2	0										57,729
91		73	-	43	99.9		37	23	3	33	4	0	0									99,052
90		72	-	44	99.5		23	23	5	41	8	0	0									164,376
89		71	-	45	98.4		12	20	6	45	15	2	0	0								262,005
88		70	-	46	95.5		5	14	8	44	25	4	0	0	0							403,419
87		69	-	47	88.4		2	8	7	36	35	10	1	0	0	0						601,963
86		68	-	48	74.5		0	4	6	25	40	21	4	0	0	0						864,225
85		67	-	49	53.6		0	1	4	13	36	32	12	2	0	0	0					1,195,824
84		66	-	50	30.5		0	0	2	5	23	36	24	8	1	0	0	0				1,602,937
83		65	-	51	12.6		0	0	1	1	11	29	34	19	5	1	0	0	0			2,077,227
82		64	-	52	3.5			0	0	0	3	15	31	31	15	4	0	0	0			2,593,783
81		63	-	53	0.7			0	0	0	1	5	19	33	28	12	2	0	0	0		3,131,896
80		62	-	54	0.1				0	0	0	1	7	22	33	25	9	2	0	0		3,656,114
79		61	-	55	0.0				0	0	0	0	2	10	26	34	21	6	1	0	0	4,120,267
78		60	-	56	0.0				0		0	0	0	3	14	31	32	16	4	0	0	4,486,108
77		59	-	57	0.0						0	0	0	1	5	20	34	28	10	1	0	4,720,704
76		58	-	58	Out							0	0	0	2	9	27	36	21	5	0	4,802,806
75		57	-	59	Out							0	0	0	0	3	16	34	33	12	1	4,724,042
74		56	-	60	Out								0	0	0	1	8	26	39	23	3	4,485,992
73		55	-	61	Out									0	0	0	3	17	38	34	7	4,118,186
72		54	-	62	Out										0	0	1	9	32	44	14	3,654,814
71		53	-	63	Out										0	0	0	4	23	49	23	3,132,351
70		52	-	64	Out											0	0	2	15	49	34	2,592,351
69		51	-	65	Out										0	0	0	1	9	45	46	2,074,065
68		50	-	66	Out												0	0	5	38	57	1,605,411
67		49	-	67	Out												0	0	2	31	67	1,199,589
66		48	-	68	Out												0	0	1	24	75	862,620
65		47	-	69	Out												0	0	0	17	82	602,295
64		46	-	70	Out													0	0	12	87	403,453
63		45	-	71	Out														0	8	91	261,647
62		44	-	72	Out														0	6	94	164,026
61		43	-	73	Out														0	4	96	98,741
60		42	-	74	Out														0	2	98	57,886
59		41	-	75	Out															2	98	32,487
58		40	-	76	Out															1	99	17,387
57		39	-	77	Out															1	99	9,094
56		38	-	78	Out															0	100	4,484
55		37	-	79	Out															0	100	2,203
18	-54				Out																100	7,234	*

Total:					5.7	%	0	0	0	2	3	4	5	6	7	9	11	12	14	15	11	65,023,400

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Cubs finish out the regular season. Explain


If finish:							Chance will play in first round
TW		W	-	L	Win WS		Bye	Cardinals	Braves	Pirates	Reds	Giants	Diamondbacks	Rockies	Nationals	Phillies	Padres	Dodgers	Mets	Brewers	Marlins

101	-134				13.2	%	Yes
100		82	-	34	10.6		98	1	1	1
99		81	-	35	11.9		99	0	0	0	1
98		80	-	36	13.4		98		0	1	0	0	0		0			0	0
97		79	-	37	12.6		96	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0		0	0	0
96		78	-	38	12.4		94	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
95		77	-	39	11.8		92	2	0	2	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
94		76	-	40	11.4		87	3	1	3	3	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
93		75	-	41	11.6		81	4	1	4	4	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
92		74	-	42	10.8		72	6	1	6	6	2	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
91		73	-	43	10.2		62	8	2	8	8	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	0	1	0
90		72	-	44	9.4		51	10	2	10	10	3	3	3	2	2	1	1	0	1	0
89		71	-	45	8.6		39	13	3	12	12	4	4	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	0
88		70	-	46	7.6		27	14	3	14	14	5	4	5	3	2	2	1	1	1	0
87		69	-	47	6.6		17	14	3	14	14	5	5	5	3	3	2	1	1	1	0
86		68	-	48	5.3		10	12	3	12	12	5	4	5	3	3	2	1	1	1	0
85		67	-	49	3.6		5	9	2	9	9	4	3	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	0
84		66	-	50	2.0		2	5	1	5	5	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	1	0
83		65	-	51	0.8		1	2	1	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
82		64	-	52	0.2		0	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
81		63	-	53	0.0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
80		62	-	54	0.0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
79		61	-	55	0.0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
78		60	-	56	0.0		0	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0	0
77		59	-	57	No			0		0
18	-76				No

Total:					0.4	%	1.2	0.9	0.2	0.9	0.9	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0

Games Above .500 (Full Screen)

Chance Will Make Playoffs (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Cubs vs Brewers	-0.6+0.6

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Cubs 6 Giants 7	+0.7

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

					100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

101	-134				100
100		82	-	34	98	2	1
99		81	-	35	95	5
98		80	-	36	91	9	0
97		79	-	37	85	14	1
96		78	-	38	77	20	2	0
95		77	-	39	68	27	4	0	0
94		76	-	40	53	36	9	1	0	0
93		75	-	41	39	40	17	4	1	0	0				0
92		74	-	42	25	38	25	9	2	0	0	0	0		0
91		73	-	43	12	31	32	17	6	1	0	0	0		0	0
90		72	-	44	5	19	30	26	14	5	1	0	0		0	0
89		71	-	45	1	8	20	28	23	12	4	1	0	0	2	0	0
88		70	-	46	0	2	9	20	26	22	12	4	1	0	4	0	0	0
87		69	-	47	0	0	2	8	17	24	21	12	4	1	10	1	0	0	0
86		68	-	48	0	0	0	2	6	14	20	19	11	3	20	5	1	0	0	0
85		67	-	49		0	0	0	1	4	10	16	16	7	28	14	4	1	0	0	0	0
84		66	-	50			0	0	0	0	2	6	12	10	24	25	14	5	1	0	0	0	0	0
83		65	-	51					0	0	0	1	4	7	11	23	25	17	8	3	1	0	0	0	0
82		64	-	52						0	0	0	1	3	2	9	19	25	21	13	6	2	0	0	0	0
81		63	-	53								0	0	1	0	1	5	13	22	24	18	10	4	1	0	0	0	0
80		62	-	54								0	0	0	0	0	1	3	8	16	23	23	15	7	2	1	0	0	0	0
79		61	-	55									0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	11	20	24	20	12	5	1	0	0	0	0
78		60	-	56									0	0		0	0	0	0	0	2	7	15	23	24	17	8	3	1	0	0	0
77		59	-	57										0				0	0	0	0	1	4	11	20	25	21	12	4	1	0	0	0
76		58	-	58															0	0	0	0	1	3	9	18	25	23	15	6	1	0	0	0
75		57	-	59																0	0	0	0	0	2	7	16	25	25	16	7	1	0	0
74		56	-	60																	0	0	0	0	0	2	6	16	25	27	17	6	1	0
73		55	-	61																			0	0	0	0	2	6	17	27	28	16	4	0
72		54	-	62																				0	0	0	0	2	7	20	31	27	11	2
71		53	-	63																					0	0	0	0	2	10	25	34	22	5
70		52	-	64																						0	0	0	1	4	16	34	33	12
69		51	-	65																							0	0	0	1	9	28	41	21
68		50	-	66																								0	0	0	4	20	43	33
67		49	-	67																									0	0	1	12	41	46
66		48	-	68																									0	0	1	7	35	58
65		47	-	69																										0	0	3	28	69
64		46	-	70																										0	0	2	21	78
63		45	-	71																											0	1	15	85
62		44	-	72																											0	0	10	90
61		43	-	73																											0	0	7	93
60		42	-	74																												0	4	96
59		41	-	75																												0	3	97
58		40	-	76																												0	2	98
57		39	-	77																													1	99
56		38	-	78																													0	100
55		37	-	79																													0	100
54		36	-	80																														100
53		35	-	81																													0	100
52		34	-	82																													0	100
18	-51																																	100

Total:					0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	7	6