Oakland Athletics Playoff Chances

Lost to Yankees 3-7, playoff odds down 1.2 to 2.6%

9-16 .360

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Yankees 7 Athletics 3	-0.5		-0.1

If winner is:HomeAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Yankees vs Athletics	-0.4+0.6		-0.1+0.2

What If

Chances based on how well the Athletics finish out the regular season. Explain

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

102	-146				In		100															7,308	*
101		92	-	45	In		85	15														13
100		91	-	46	In		70	30														23
99		90	-	47	In		69	29	3													70
98		89	-	48	In		66	30	4	1												138
97		88	-	49	In		53	40	6	1												368
96		87	-	50	In		45	43	11	1												751
95		86	-	51	In		33	50	15	2	0											1,549
94		85	-	52	In		22	52	22	3	1	0										3,251
93		84	-	53	In		14	48	33	4	1	0										6,298
92		83	-	54	100.0	%	8	42	43	5	2	0	0									11,710
91		82	-	55	99.9		4	33	52	7	4	1	0									21,382
90		81	-	56	99.7		2	23	59	7	6	2	0	0								37,376
89		80	-	57	99.1		1	15	63	7	10	4	1	0	0							64,109
88		79	-	58	97.2		0	8	62	6	12	8	2	0	0							107,048
87		78	-	59	92.6		0	4	59	4	13	13	6	1	0	0						171,523
86		77	-	60	83.8		0	2	51	2	11	18	12	4	0	0	0					267,903
85		76	-	61	70.1		0	1	43	1	8	18	19	9	2	0	0	0				406,868
84		75	-	62	53.3			0	33	0	4	15	24	17	5	1	0	0				598,889
83		74	-	63	36.1			0	24	0	2	10	24	25	12	2	0	0	0			853,791
82		73	-	64	22.2			0	17	0	1	5	19	30	21	7	1	0	0			1,183,596
81		72	-	65	12.6			0	10	0	0	2	12	28	30	14	3	0	0			1,592,996
80		71	-	66	6.7			0	6	0	0	1	6	21	33	24	8	1	0	0		2,078,173
79		70	-	67	3.4			0	3	0	0	0	2	12	29	32	17	4	0	0		2,640,478
78		69	-	68	1.6				2		0	0	1	6	21	34	26	9	1	0		3,249,494
77		68	-	69	0.6				1			0	0	2	12	30	34	18	4	0	0	3,881,223
76		67	-	70	0.2				0			0	0	1	6	21	36	27	9	1	0	4,503,587
75		66	-	71	0.1				0			0	0	0	2	12	31	35	16	2	0	5,075,634
74		65	-	72	0.0				0			0	0	0	1	6	23	39	26	5	0	5,548,359
73		64	-	73	0.0				0				0	0	0	3	15	37	36	10	0	5,897,811
72		63	-	74	0.0				0					0	0	1	8	30	43	17	0	6,068,789
71		62	-	75	0.0				0					0	0	0	4	22	46	26	1	6,068,011
70		61	-	76	0.0				0						0	0	2	14	45	37	2	5,892,744
69		60	-	77	Out										0	0	1	9	40	47	3	5,551,188
68		59	-	78	Out											0	0	5	33	57	6	5,069,885
67		58	-	79	Out											0	0	2	25	63	9	4,497,694
66		57	-	80	Out											0	0	1	18	67	14	3,864,994
65		56	-	81	Out												0	0	12	68	20	3,227,377
64		55	-	82	Out												0	0	8	66	26	2,609,479
63		54	-	83	Out												0	0	5	62	33	2,051,267
62		53	-	84	Out												0	0	3	56	41	1,558,272
61		52	-	85	Out													0	1	50	49	1,149,417
60		51	-	86	Out													0	1	43	57	820,423
59		50	-	87	Out													0	0	35	64	567,617
58		49	-	88	Out														0	29	71	382,481
57		48	-	89	Out														0	23	77	246,736
56		47	-	90	Out														0	18	82	155,253
55		46	-	91	Out														0	13	87	94,831
54		45	-	92	Out														0	10	90	55,539
53		44	-	93	Out														0	7	93	31,484
52		43	-	94	Out															5	95	17,445
51		42	-	95	Out															3	97	9,095
50		41	-	96	Out															2	98	4,644
49		40	-	97	Out															2	98	2,367
48		39	-	98	Out															1	99	1,112
47		38	-	99	Out															1	99	571
46		37	-	100	Out															0	100	231
9	-45				Out																100	7,455	*

Total:					2.6	%	0	0	2	0	0	1	1	3	4	7	10	15	22	27	7	88,218,120

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Athletics finish out the regular season. Explain


If finish:							Chance will play in first round
TW		W	-	L	Win WS		Bye	Guardians	Orioles	Royals	Yankees	Red Sox	Rangers	Mariners	Tigers	Blue Jays	Angels	Twins	Rays	Astros

99	-146				4.6	%	Yes
98		89	-	48	4.3		99			1
97		88	-	49	4.1		99			1					0
96		87	-	50	2.9		99	0	0	0	0	0	0
95		86	-	51	4.1		98	0	1	1	0	0		0	0				0
94		85	-	52	4.1		96	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0
93		84	-	53	4.0		95	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
92		83	-	54	3.6		93	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
91		82	-	55	3.6		89	1	2	2	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
90		81	-	56	3.6		84	2	2	3	2	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
89		80	-	57	3.2		78	2	2	4	2	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
88		79	-	58	2.8		71	2	3	4	3	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
87		78	-	59	2.5		63	2	2	4	2	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
86		77	-	60	2.1		53	2	2	3	2	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
85		76	-	61	1.7		43	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
84		75	-	62	1.3		33	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
83		74	-	63	0.9		24	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
82		73	-	64	0.6		17	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
81		72	-	65	0.4		10	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
80		71	-	66	0.2		6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
79		70	-	67	0.1		3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0				0
78		69	-	68	0.1		2	0		0	0					0
70	-77				0.0		0
9	-69				No

Total:					0.1	%	1.9	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Yankees 7 Athletics 3	+0.3

If winner is:HomeAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Yankees vs Athletics	+0.2-0.4

What If

This is basically a projection of most winningest teams at the end of the season.

					100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

102	-146				100
101		92	-	45	85	15
100		91	-	46	61	35	4
99		90	-	47	59	33	9
98		89	-	48	46	41	11	1
97		88	-	49	34	43	18	3	2
96		87	-	50	24	40	24	9	2	0
95		86	-	51	14	34	30	16	4	1
94		85	-	52	5	24	34	24	10	2	0	0
93		84	-	53	3	13	29	30	18	7	1	0	0
92		83	-	54	1	7	18	30	25	14	5	1	0	0			0
91		82	-	55	0	2	9	21	28	22	12	4	1	0	0		0
90		81	-	56	0	0	3	11	22	27	21	11	4	1	0	0	0	0
89		80	-	57	0	0	1	4	12	21	26	20	10	3	1	0	1	0	0
88		79	-	58		0	0	1	4	12	21	25	20	10	3	0	2	0	0	0
87		78	-	59		0	0	0	1	4	10	20	25	20	10	3	6	1	0	0	0
86		77	-	60			0	0	0	1	3	9	19	24	20	8	11	4	1	0	0	0
85		76	-	61				0	0	0	0	2	8	18	24	18	16	10	3	1	0	0	0
84		75	-	62						0	0	0	2	7	18	25	16	17	10	3	1	0	0	0
83		74	-	63							0	0	0	2	9	25	10	19	18	11	4	1	0	0	0	0
82		73	-	64								0	0	0	3	19	4	12	20	20	13	6	2	0	0	0	0
81		72	-	65								0	0	0	1	12	1	5	13	21	22	16	7	2	0	0	0	0
80		71	-	66									0	0	0	7	0	1	5	12	21	24	18	9	3	1	0	0	0
79		70	-	67										0	0	3	0	0	1	4	12	21	25	20	10	3	1	0	0	0
78		69	-	68											0	2	0	0	0	1	4	11	21	26	21	11	3	1	0	0	0
77		68	-	69											0	1		0	0	0	1	4	11	21	27	21	11	3	1	0	0	0
76		67	-	70											0	0		0	0	0	0	1	4	11	22	27	21	10	3	0	0	0	0
75		66	-	71												0			0	0	0	0	1	4	12	23	28	21	9	2	0	0	0
74		65	-	72												0				0	0	0	0	1	5	14	25	28	19	7	1	0	0
73		64	-	73												0					0	0	0	0	1	6	17	28	28	15	4	0	0	0
72		63	-	74												0						0	0	0	0	2	8	21	31	25	10	2	0	0
71		62	-	75												0							0	0	0	0	3	12	27	33	19	5	0	0
70		61	-	76												0								0	0	0	1	6	19	34	29	10	1	0
69		60	-	77																				0	0	0	0	2	11	29	36	19	4	0
68		59	-	78																					0	0	0	1	5	20	38	28	8	0
67		58	-	79																						0	0	0	2	12	34	36	14	1
66		57	-	80																							0	0	1	7	27	41	22	3
65		56	-	81																								0	0	3	19	41	31	6
64		55	-	82																								0	0	1	12	37	40	10
63		54	-	83																								0	0	0	7	31	46	17
62		53	-	84																									0	0	3	23	49	24
61		52	-	85																									0	0	2	16	48	33
60		51	-	86																										0	1	11	46	43
59		50	-	87																										0	0	7	40	53
58		49	-	88																										0	0	4	34	62
57		48	-	89																											0	2	28	70
56		47	-	90																											0	1	21	78
55		46	-	91																											0	0	16	83
54		45	-	92																												0	12	88
53		44	-	93																											0	0	8	92
52		43	-	94																												0	6	94
51		42	-	95																													4	96
50		41	-	96																												0	2	98
49		40	-	97																													2	98
48		39	-	98																													1	99
47		38	-	99																													1	99
46		37	-	100																													0	100
9	-45																																	100

Total:					0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	10	12	13	12	8	4