Toronto Blue Jays Playoff Chances

Lost to Braves 6-10, playoff odds down 2.2 to 5%
17-22   .436

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Blue Jays 6 Braves 10 -1.1
-0.3
Mariners 6 Athletics 5 -0.1
If winner is:HomeAway
Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Blue Jays vs Braves+0.8-0.9
+0.2-0.2
Rangers vs Phillies-0.1+0.1
Cardinals vs Red Sox+0.1-0.1
Twins vs Rockies-0.1+0.1
Tigers vs Orioles+0.1-0.1
Mariners vs Athletics-0.1+0.1
Royals vs Yankees+0.1-0.0

What If

Chances based on how well the Blue Jays finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-Lplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
107-140In100145,046*
10689-34In93715
10588-35In971176
10487-36In9641191
10386-37In9541474
10285-38In917011,246
10184-39In8990202,953
10083-40In8313036,828
9982-41In781705015,019
9881-42In712107031,737
9780-43In6227011066,146
9679-44100.0%533111500132,161
9578-45100.0423512100255,112
9477-46100.03237227100476,968
9376-47100.02337434200861,973
9275-4899.914346424001,499,530
9174-4999.782974880002,533,699
9073-5099.04229511410004,131,132
8972-5197.32149502230006,523,732
8871-5293.00884432610009,960,598
8770-5384.10473440142000014,708,606
8669-5469.101422412461000021,040,176
8568-5549.0002113534143000029,091,147
8467-5628.2001423362591000038,974,030
8366-5712.6001112933195100050,525,067
8265-584.10004163130144000063,410,250
8164-590.90001721322611200077,028,249
8063-600.200002102532228100090,596,922
7962-610.000003132832185100103,157,692
7861-620.000001517323013300113,718,882
7760-630.00000018233425810121,405,187
7659-640.00000021229351830125,460,583
7558-650.0000001519362991125,528,776
7457-66Out00002103038182121,565,524
7356-67Out000042040286113,985,713
7255-68Out0000212363812103,440,344
7154-69Out0000629452090,849,181
7053-70Out000320473177,217,740
6952-71Out000113444263,517,659
6851-72Out0007395350,537,670
6750-73Out0004326438,891,468
6649-74Out002257328,940,536
6548-75Out001188120,829,964
6447-76Out000138614,491,400
6346-77Out009919,743,100
6245-78Out006946,328,588
6144-79Out004963,968,116
6043-80Out02982,403,126
5942-81Out01991,408,129
5841-82Out0199794,494
5740-83Out00100430,645
5639-84Out0100226,130
5538-85Out0100114,690
5437-86Out010055,778
5336-87Out010026,096
5235-88Out010011,778
17-51Out100153,788*
Total:5.0%000234567911131515121,751,221,860

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Blue Jays finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-LWin WSByeAstrosYankeesIndiansOriolesTwinsRangersRed SoxWhite SoxTigersRaysMarinersAngelsRoyalsAthletics
106-1406.5%Yes
10588-353.9991
10487-365.8991
10386-378.099000
10285-387.09900000000
10184-395.798000000000000
10083-406.39700010000000000
9982-416.49500010100001000
9881-426.09200120110011000
9780-436.18901131111011100
9679-445.98511141211111100
9578-455.97911161321122100
9477-465.57212282321122100
9376-475.264132102432133200
9275-484.854253123542244200
9174-494.544263143752254200
9073-504.134284163863255300
8972-513.725294184963265300
8871-523.317294184973366300
8770-532.810294174963366300
8669-542.26274144863255300
8568-551.53153113642244200
8467-560.8113262321122100
8366-570.4001131111011100
8265-580.1000010000000000
8164-590.0000000000000000
8063-600.0000000000000000
7962-610.0000000000000000
7861-620.0000000000000000
7760-630.0000000000000000
7659-640.0000000000000
7558-65No00
17-74No
Total:0.2%0.70.10.50.31.00.30.50.40.20.20.40.30.20.00.0
Games Above .500  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday100.0*Lottery seed
Blue Jays 6 Braves 10 +0.5
If winner is:HomeAway
Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Blue Jays vs Braves-0.5+0.5

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
107-140100
10689-348713
10588-359631
10487-3688121
10386-3787130
10285-3880182
10184-39732430
10083-40623260
9982-415138910
9881-42404215200
9780-432942236100
9679-44193930112000
9578-451131341851000
9477-46522342610200000
9376-472132831186100000
9275-481619302613410000
9174-49021023302210200000
9073-50014132628197101000
8972-51001516262716513000
8871-52000171727251336100000
8770-53000027182722812300000
8669-54000027192615199200000
8568-55000028191921199200000
8467-56000029171524209310000
8366-57000039719262111410000
8265-5800014281926221251000000
8164-590001028182523156200000
8063-6000000261524251782000000
7962-61000000151322251910310000
7861-62000000141120262112410000
7760-6300000013919252314510000
7659-640000002817252415610000
7558-650000002717252516620000
7457-66000000271726251661000
7356-6700000027172625155100
7255-68000002819282513410
7154-69000003102229231020
7053-700000141325302071
6952-71000016173029142
6851-720000292435246
6750-7300001416343412
6649-74000019284120
6548-7500004204431
6447-760002134243
6346-77000173755
6245-78000043066
6144-790022375
6043-800011683
5942-81001188
5841-8200892
5740-8300595
5639-840397
5538-850298
5437-86199
5336-870199
5235-880100
5134-890100
5033-900100
48-49100
4730-93199
17-46100
Total:000000111112333445566777776543