"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/14100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Inter Milan 1 Juventus 1 +0.3
+0.4
Napoli 2 Atalanta 0 -0.2
-0.2
Torino 2 AC Milan 2 +0.1
+0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Fiorentina vs Cagliari+2.6-1.5-3.3
+5.5-3.0-7.2
-1.3+0.5+2.0
+0.8-0.4-1.1
Parma vs Roma+0.3+0.1-0.5
+0.4+0.2-0.6
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Livorno vs Catania-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.2+0.2+0.2
-0.0-0.0+0.1
Udinese vs Bologna-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.2+0.2+0.1
-0.0-0.0+0.1
Verona vs Sassuolo-0.1+0.1+0.0
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0-0.0+0.1
Lazio vs Chievo-0.0+0.1+0.0
-0.1+0.2+0.0
Sampdoria vs Genoa-0.1+0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/22100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Inter Milan vs Fiorentina-2.4-0.1+4.8
-4.8+0.1+9.2
+1.0-0.2-1.7
-0.6+0.0+1.2
Atalanta vs Fiorentina-2.4-0.5+4.0
-5.0-0.7+8.0
+1.2-0.1-1.7
-0.7-0.0+1.1
Napoli vs Sassuolo-0.4+0.3+0.6
-0.5+0.4+0.6
-0.1+0.0+0.2
AC Milan vs Napoli+0.3+0.2-0.6
+0.2+0.2-0.5
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Sassuolo vs Inter Milan+0.3+0.1-0.5
+0.5+0.2-0.7
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Chievo vs Juventus+0.3+0.1-0.5
+0.4+0.2-0.6
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Sampdoria vs Roma+0.3+0.1-0.5
+0.3+0.2-0.6
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Juventus vs Verona-0.3+0.2+0.3
-0.4+0.3+0.4
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Roma vs Lazio-0.3+0.2+0.3
-0.4+0.3+0.3
-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Genoa vs Livorno+0.1+0.0-0.2
+0.2+0.1-0.4
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Bologna vs AC Milan+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.1+0.1-0.3
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Chievo vs Udinese+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.1+0.1-0.3
+0.1-0.0-0.0
Udinese vs Genoa-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.2+0.2+0.2
-0.0-0.0+0.1
Bologna vs Torino+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.1-0.2
Livorno vs Cagliari-0.1+0.1*-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.0
Lazio vs Catania-0.1+0.1+0.0
-0.2+0.2+0.1
-0.0-0.0+0.1
Cagliari vs Sampdoria-0.0+0.1+0.0
-0.1+0.2+0.0
Parma vs Atalanta+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.1-0.2
Torino vs Verona-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
Catania vs Parma+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.0-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Fiorentina finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleUEFA CL1234567891011121314151617181920Serie BCount
93-114YesYes100No121,757*
9227-5-499.9%Yes1000No874*
9126-7-399.9Yes1000No1,687*
9026-6-4YesYes100No3,034*
8926-5-5100.0Yes1000No5,582*
8825-7-4100.0Yes1000No10,051*
8725-6-5100.0Yes1000No17,507*
8624-8-499.9Yes1000No29,366*
8524-7-599.9Yes1000No49,296*
8424-6-699.9Yes1000No79,828*
8323-8-599.8Yes1000No127,916*
8223-7-699.7Yes1000No201,152*
8123-6-799.5Yes10000No310,547*
8022-8-699.3Yes9910No469,762*
7922-7-798.9Yes9910No696,811*
7821-9-698.4Yes9820No1,013,035*
7721-8-797.6Yes9820No1,448,633*
7621-7-896.4100.0%96400No2,040,685*
7520-9-794.8100.095500No2,812,626*
7420-8-892.6100.093700No3,819,253*
7319-10-789.5100.09010000No5,095,972*
7219-9-885.5100.08614100No6,676,971*
7119-8-980.4100.08018100No8,596,795*
7018-10-874.199.974242000No10,891,339*
6918-9-966.499.866294000No13,560,959*
6818-8-1057.699.458357100No16,603,014*
6717-10-947.998.64840111000No19,985,758*
6617-9-1037.897.03843163000No23,656,573*
6517-8-1127.993.928432351000No27,543,126*
6416-10-1019.088.3194029102000No31,536,735*
6316-9-1111.779.41234341640000No35,500,283*
6215-11-106.366.7625352481000No39,313,148*
6115-10-112.950.931632301541000No42,805,666*
6015-9-121.134.0192432239200000No45,800,885*
5914-11-110.319.10415292916510000No48,230,364*
5814-10-120.18.601720302512310000No49,929,513*
5714-9-130.02.9003112430219200000No50,818,990*
5613-11-120.00.7001414262818710000No50,826,763*
5513-10-130.00.10001617282715510000No49,998,696*
5413-9-14No0.00002719282514410000No48,338,937*
5312-11-13No0.000002820282412410000No45,916,965*
5212-10-14No0.0000029212823113100000.0%42,869,435*
5111-12-13NoNo000031022282211300000.039,331,497*
5011-11-14NoNo000131123282110300000.035,442,457*
4911-10-15NoNo00001412242820920000.031,378,186*
4810-12-14NoNo0001413252819720000.227,266,713*
4710-11-15NoNo0000151527281761001.123,269,132*
4610-10-16NoNo000027182826144104.519,487,410*
459-12-15NoNo000029223024102012.616,019,476*
449-11-16NoNo00013132631206126.312,914,864*
439-10-17NoNo0001618312913244.010,216,028*
428-12-16NoNo000210263422562.07,919,869*
418-11-17NoNo000151834321177.06,019,789*
408-10-18NoNo00021030391987.54,478,708*
397-12-17NoNo001522432993.93,266,830*
387-11-18NoNo000215424097.32,327,574*
377-10-19NoNo00019385198.91,626,709*
366-12-18NoNo0005326299.61,110,468*
356-11-19NoNo003267199.9738,728*
346-10-20NoNo011979100.0481,370*
335-12-19NoNo011485100.0307,138*
325-11-20NoNo001090100.0189,433*
315-10-21NoNo00793100.0115,263*
305-9-22NoNo0496Yes67,068*
294-11-21NoNo0397Yes38,315*
284-10-22NoNo0298Yes21,571*
274-9-23NoNo199Yes11,406*
263-11-22NoNo199Yes6,012*
253-10-23NoNo0100Yes3,086*
243-9-24NoNo0100Yes1,450*
233-8-25NoNo0100Yes719*
6-22NoNo100Yes121,402*
Total:10.0%28.6%10109887665544433222113.6%971,934,960

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Win Championship  (Full Screen)