SportsClubStats.com calculates each drivers odds of winning the championship and how well they have to finish out to have a shot. It knows the season schedule and results for past races. Each week it grabs any new results from the internet and simulates the rest of the season by randomly picking results for each remaining race. When the simulation "runs" a race it gives each driver an equal chance of finishing in any spot, like picking numbers from a hat. When it's finished "running" all the remaining races it applies the league's tie breaking rules to see where everyone finished. It repeats this random playing out of the season million of times (try it yourself), keeping track of how many "seasons" each driver finishes where. Finally it updates this page with the new results for you to read with your morning coffee.

To help flush out each drivers highest and lowest possible seeds, I force them to win or fail to qualify for the remaining races for 1000 of the simulation runs. All the change columns are since the end of yesterday for sports like baseball and hockey (lots of games each day), and since the end of last week for sports like football and racing. The biggest movers up and down are in bold. The drivers are ordered by their odds of winning the championship (more interesting than their record). Click on a driver to see their what if scenarios.

Chance of making the Chase: this is what we care about. The percentage of simulated seasons they made the Chase.

Average finish: Average finishing position at the start of the Chase. It is the arithmetic mean, so if they come in 1st half the time and 5th the other half the average would be 3 (even though they never actually finish 3rd). The sign of the average change is flipped to make it easier to read.