How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

 Week of 9/15 100.0* Chance wins title 100.0* UEFA CL 100.0* 2. Bundesliga 100.0* Average seed Bayern München 4 Mainz 05 0 -0.9 -4.0 +3.6 -0.8 Mainz 05 2 Hoffenheim 3 -0.2 -1.3 +4.8 -0.6 Werder Bremen 1 Schalke 04 2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 Hannover 96 2 Hamburger SV 0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Leipzig 2 Mönchengladbach 2 +0.2 *-0.1 Eintracht Frank 1 Augsburg 2 -0.1 Hamburger SV 0 Borussia Dortmund 3 -0.1 -0.2 Borussia Dortmund 5 Köln 0 -0.1 -0.6 Hoffenheim 1 Hertha BSC 1 +0.1 Freiburg 1 Hannover 96 1 +0.1 +0.0 Köln 0 Eintracht Frank 1 -0.3 Mönchengladbach 2 Stuttgart 0 -0.1 Wolfsburg 1 Werder Bremen 1 -0.3 Stuttgart 1 Wolfsburg 0 +0.1 Bayer Leverkusen 4 Freiburg 0 +0.1 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Week of 9/24 100.0* Chance wins title 100.0* UEFA CL 100.0* 2. Bundesliga 100.0* Average seed Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC +0.1-0.0-0.1 +1.2-0.2-0.8 -7.5+0.5+5.3 +0.9-0.1-0.6 Bayern München vs Wolfsburg -0.1+0.0+0.1 -0.5*+0.0+0.8 +0.0+0.0-0.1 Borussia Dortmund vs Mönchengladbach -0.1*-0.0+0.1 Hannover 96 vs Köln -0.1+0.1+0.1 -0.6*-0.0+1.3 Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04 -0.0+0.1*+0.0 -0.1*-0.0+0.1 Stuttgart vs Augsburg +0.1+0.0-0.1 +0.7*+0.0-0.5 Leipzig vs Eintracht Frank -0.1*-0.0+0.1 Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV *+0.0-0.2+0.1 Werder Bremen vs Freiburg +0.1-0.4+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Mainz 05 finish out the regular season.   Explain

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance Chance will finish season at seed 2. TP W - D - L wins title UEFA CL 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Bundesliga Count 73 -90 Yes Yes 100 No 2,586 * 72 22 - 3 - 4 81.0 % Yes 81 19 No 21 * 71 21 - 5 - 3 92.5 Yes 93 8 No 40 * 70 21 - 4 - 4 88.4 Yes 88 12 No 69 * 69 20 - 6 - 3 84.2 Yes 84 15 1 No 133 * 68 20 - 5 - 4 83.6 Yes 84 15 1 No 275 * 67 20 - 4 - 5 75.0 Yes 75 23 2 No 480 * 66 19 - 6 - 4 70.1 Yes 70 27 3 0 No 825 * 65 19 - 5 - 5 65.1 Yes 65 30 5 0 No 1,381 * 64 18 - 7 - 4 53.5 Yes 54 38 8 1 No 2,322 * 63 18 - 6 - 5 44.5 99.9 % 44 43 11 1 0 No 3,883 * 62 18 - 5 - 6 34.9 99.9 35 45 17 3 0 No 6,122 * 61 17 - 7 - 5 25.7 99.3 26 45 24 5 1 0 No 9,499 * 60 17 - 6 - 6 16.5 98.6 17 41 31 10 1 0 0 No 14,424 * 59 17 - 5 - 7 10.5 96.5 10 33 36 16 3 0 0 No 21,337 * 58 16 - 7 - 6 5.6 92.3 6 26 37 24 7 1 0 No 31,655 * 57 16 - 6 - 7 2.7 84.6 3 17 34 30 13 3 0 0 No 45,571 * 56 16 - 5 - 8 1.0 72.8 1 10 28 34 20 6 1 0 No 63,924 * 55 15 - 7 - 7 0.4 56.8 0 4 19 33 28 12 3 0 0 0 No 88,546 * 54 15 - 6 - 8 0.1 39.2 0 2 10 27 33 20 6 1 0 0 No 119,760 * 53 14 - 8 - 7 0.0 23.0 0 1 5 18 32 29 13 3 0 0 0 No 158,132 * 52 14 - 7 - 8 0.0 10.9 0 0 2 9 24 33 23 8 2 0 0 No 206,406 * 51 14 - 6 - 9 No 4.1 0 0 4 15 29 30 16 5 1 0 0 No 263,720 * 50 13 - 8 - 8 No 1.2 0 0 1 7 21 32 26 11 2 0 0 0 No 329,572 * 49 13 - 7 - 9 No 0.2 0 0 2 11 26 32 21 7 1 0 0 No 403,884 * 48 13 - 6 - 10 No 0.0 0 0 0 1 4 16 30 29 16 4 1 0 0 No 486,674 * 47 12 - 8 - 9 No 0.0 0 0 1 7 21 32 26 11 2 0 0 0 No 574,481 * 46 12 - 7 - 10 No 0.0 0 0 0 2 11 26 32 21 7 1 0 0 0 0.0 % 666,064 * 45 12 - 6 - 11 No No 0 0 1 4 15 30 30 16 4 1 0 0 0 0.0 756,244 * 44 11 - 8 - 10 No No 0 0 1 7 21 32 26 11 2 0 0 0 0.0 842,874 * 43 11 - 7 - 11 No No 0 0 0 2 11 26 32 21 7 1 0 0 0.0 920,741 * 42 10 - 9 - 10 No No 0 0 1 4 16 31 30 15 3 0 0 0.2 985,373 * 41 10 - 8 - 11 No No 0 0 0 1 8 23 33 24 9 1 0 0 0.8 1,034,738 * 40 10 - 7 - 12 No No 0 0 0 3 13 29 32 18 4 0 0 2.6 1,062,581 * 39 9 - 9 - 11 No No 0 0 1 6 20 34 27 10 2 0 6.6 1,071,973 * 38 9 - 8 - 12 No No 0 0 2 12 29 34 19 4 0 13.7 1,058,418 * 37 9 - 7 - 13 No No 0 0 1 6 20 35 28 9 1 23.9 1,025,416 * 36 8 - 9 - 12 No No 0 0 2 12 31 35 17 2 36.6 966,467 * 35 8 - 8 - 13 No No 0 0 1 6 24 39 26 5 50.2 898,341 * 34 8 - 7 - 14 No No 0 0 0 3 15 37 35 10 63.2 814,213 * 33 7 - 9 - 13 No No 0 0 1 9 31 42 17 74.2 721,637 * 32 7 - 8 - 14 No No 0 0 5 24 46 25 83.0 625,957 * 31 7 - 7 - 15 No No 0 0 2 17 46 35 89.4 531,682 * 30 6 - 9 - 14 No No 0 1 11 43 46 93.7 439,735 * 29 6 - 8 - 15 No No 0 0 0 6 37 56 96.4 355,208 * 28 6 - 7 - 16 No No 0 0 4 31 66 98.1 278,687 * 27 5 - 9 - 15 No No 0 0 2 24 74 99.1 215,140 * 26 5 - 8 - 16 No No 0 1 18 81 99.6 160,669 * 25 5 - 7 - 17 No No 0 0 13 86 99.8 116,312 * 24 4 - 9 - 16 No No 0 9 90 99.9 82,128 * 23 4 - 8 - 17 No No 0 6 94 100.0 56,830 * 22 4 - 7 - 18 No No 0 4 96 100.0 37,454 * 21 3 - 9 - 17 No No 3 97 Yes 24,236 * 20 3 - 8 - 18 No No 2 98 Yes 14,953 * 19 3 - 7 - 19 No No 1 99 Yes 9,186 * 18 3 - 6 - 20 No No 1 99 Yes 5,254 * 17 2 - 8 - 19 No No 0 100 Yes 2,876 * 3 -16 No No 100 Yes 5,519 * Total: 0.1 % 1.9 % 0 0 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 10 27.4 % 18,622,628

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship