"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 3/6100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Average seed
Marseille 2 Amiens 2 *No
+0.1
Rennes 5 Montpellier 0 -2.4
-0.8
Lille 1 Lyonnais 0 -0.6
Reims 1 Brest 0 -0.1
Saint-Étienne 1 Bordeaux 1 +0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/13100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Average seed
Montpellier vs Marseille+0.6-0.1-0.3
+1.1-0.1-0.7
Bordeaux vs Rennes+0.2+0.0-0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Brest vs Lille+0.1+0.0-0.1
Monaco vs Saint-Étienne-0.1+0.0+0.1
PSG vs Nice+0.1-0.0-0.1
Nantes vs Nîmes-0.1+0.0+0.1
Strasbourg vs Dijon-0.1+0.0+0.1
Amiens vs Angers+0.1+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Montpellier finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleUEFA CL1234567891011121314151617181920Ligue 2Count
7010-0-0No91.3%484390No3,985
689-1-0No71.02150263No6,360
679-0-1No55.812443770No7,983
668-2-0No44.173744120No23,710
658-1-1No28.0226492200No60,590
647-3-0No17.2116483310No91,225*
637-2-1No9.1094246300No201,130
627-1-2No3.604305610100No251,672
6-4-0No4.7053455600No78,622
616-3-1No1.602216016100No389,725
7-0-3No1.201175821300No104,441
606-2-2No0.4001053306000No724,478
5-5-0No0.601135825300No77,206
596-1-3No0.1003374115200No599,139
5-4-1No0.105443811100No481,300
585-3-2No0.0012642246100No1,190,107
6-0-4No0.0012341268100No238,072*
575-2-3No0.000113335174000No1,464,382
4-5-1No0.000153732133000No394,425
564-4-2No0.0005223526102000No1,212,810
5-1-4NoNo03183429133000No920,961*
554-3-3NoNo0192534228100No1,976,577
5-0-5NoNo01621342610200No218,421
3-6-1NoNo02122933185100No214,652
544-2-4NoNo002112732206100No1,803,573
3-5-2NoNo003153031164000No794,899*
533-4-3NoNo01417313014300No1,593,760
4-1-5NoNo00314293117400No948,669*
523-3-4NoNo001519332912200No1,923,874
2-6-2NoNo00172234259100No316,961
4-0-6NoNo00416313115300No176,363*
513-2-5NoNo0017223526910No1,401,994*
2-5-3NoNo000292535237100No764,851
502-4-4NoNo00211293619300No1,148,951
3-1-6NoNo0029273621400No625,366*
492-3-5NoNo000315353412100No1,093,145
1-6-3NoNo0041836311010No204,231*
3-0-7NoNo00212333614200No93,179
482-2-6NoNo0005224126500No647,918
1-5-4NoNo0016254123400No369,474*
471-4-5NoNo001113638131000.0%428,775
2-1-7NoNo001103439141000.0240,278*
461-3-6NoNo0032243265000.0334,216
0-6-4NoNo00423432540No78,867*
451-2-7NoNo0110383812100.0232,431*
440-4-6NoNo042545234000.2111,866*
430-3-7NoNo0113403510100.948,790*
420-2-8NoNo05304220302.918,305
410-1-9NoNo2164133808.54,493
400-0-10NoNo07294320121.23,758
Total:No0.4%0028101112121111974200000.0%26,340,960

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship