How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 6/16100.0*Chance in next round100.0*Average seed
Poland vs Senegal+25.5-0.9-25.0
+0.6-0.0-0.6
Colombia vs Japan-0.2+0.9-0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 6/21100.0*Chance in next round100.0*Average seed
Poland vs Colombia+25.5-0.9-25.0
+0.6-0.0-0.6
Japan vs Senegal-0.2+0.9-0.2

What If

Chances based on how well the Poland finish out the group.   Explain

100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish group at seed
TPW-D-Lnext round1234Count
93-0-0In10051,168,750
72-1-0In92875,155,754
62-0-195.7%40564153,327,643
51-2-098.93762136,836,330
41-1-151.4150481150,288,736
31-0-24.345936153,333,345
0-3-014.601472136,022,939
20-2-11.11465336,841,311
10-1-2Out89275,160,056
00-0-3Out10051,181,792
Total:50.0%25252525789,316,656
Points
Chance Will Make Next Round

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 6/16100.0*Lottery seed
Poland vs Senegal-5.5+0.7+5.2
Colombia vs Japan+0.0-0.2+0.0
Portugal vs Morocco+0.0-0.1+0.0
Iran vs Spain-0.0-0.0+0.1
Russia vs Egypt-0.0-0.0+0.1
Uruguay vs Saudi Arabia-0.0-0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 6/21100.0*Lottery seed
Poland vs Colombia-5.5+0.7+5.2
Japan vs Senegal+0.0-0.2+0.0
Saudi Arabia vs Egypt+0.0-0.1+0.0
Nigeria vs Iceland+0.0-0.1+0.0
Nigeria vs Argentina+0.0-0.1+0.0
Australia vs Peru+0.0-0.1+0.0
Spain vs Morocco+0.0-0.1+0.0
Brazil vs Costa Rica+0.0-0.1+0.0
Switzerland vs Costa Rica+0.0-0.1+0.0
Germany vs Sweden+0.0-0.1+0.0
South Korea vs Germany+0.0-0.1+0.0
Serbia vs Switzerland-0.0-0.0+0.1
Iran vs Portugal-0.0-0.0+0.1
Serbia vs Brazil-0.0-0.0+0.1
Argentina vs Croatia+0.1-0.0-0.0
Iceland vs Croatia+0.1-0.0-0.0
Denmark vs Australia-0.0-0.0+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish group at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
93-0-0392718104100
72-1-0141119232012371000
62-0-100002715151216149410040000
51-2-0000163003101818103010000
41-1-100010013812141114141163100000
31-0-200014027111517171383100000
0-3-000002131412212315720000
20-2-100100001512222620931000
10-1-20000028152122181030
00-0-3001511192737
Total:32233345333333334334444433332222