Chinese Taipei Playoff Chances 2ndround2018

Lost to Thailand 0-2, playoff odds down 21.8 to 5%

0 points 0-0-1

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 6/11	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Qualified	100.0*	Average seed
Laos 2 Myanmar 2	+0.1		+0.1
Malaysia 1 Timor-Leste 1	+0.1		+0.1
Afghanistan 0 Syria 6	*-0.1		*-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Chinese Taipei vs Indonesia	+4.4-2.0-3.7		+4.4-2.0-3.7		+3.6-0.9-3.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Chinese Taipei finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in				Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		Qualified		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	Count

21	7	-	0	-	0	In		Yes		57	30	8	2	0				2																																1,722
19	6	-	1	-	0	In		Yes		12	27	26	14	5	1	0	0	14	0																															6,876
18	6	-	0	-	1	100.0	%	100.0	%	2	8	16	20	13	5	1	0	29	6	0	0					0																								17,991
17	5	-	2	-	0	99.9		99.9		0	2	7	15	18	13	6	1	23	12	2	0	0				0																								14,144
16	5	-	1	-	1	97.8		97.8		0	0	1	3	8	12	11	4	18	23	13	5	1	0	0		1	0																							72,236
15	5	-	0	-	2	78.5		78.5				0	0	1	3	7	7	4	15	22	19	10	3	1	0	7	1	0	0					0																91,188
	4	-	3	-	0	88.4		88.4				0	0	2	6	12	10	5	15	21	16	7	2	0	0	1	0	0																						15,952
14	4	-	2	-	1	48.4		48.4					0	0	1	4	8	1	4	12	20	21	14	5	1	7	3	1	0	0				0																119,634
13	4	-	1	-	2	9.7		9.7						0	0	0	3	0	0	1	5	13	19	18	7	9	12	8	3	1	0	0		1	0	0														298,381
	3	-	4	-	0	18.0		18.0							0	1	7		0	2	8	18	23	19	6	5	6	3	1	0	0			0																10,430
12	4	-	0	-	3	0.3		0.3								0	0		0	0	0	1	5	13	15	3	10	16	15	9	3	1	0	7	1	0	0					0								244,616
	3	-	3	-	1	1.3		1.3								0	1			0	0	2	9	21	22	3	9	13	11	6	2	0	0	2	0	0														103,185
11	3	-	2	-	2	0.0		0.0									0				0	0	1	5	18	0	2	7	14	17	14	6	1	10	3	1	0	0				0								380,098
	2	-	5	-	0	0.2		0.2									0					0	2	10	34	0	2	7	11	14	10	4	1	4	1	0														4,040
10	3	-	1	-	3	Out		No														0	0	0	5	0	0	1	3	8	15	17	10	13	15	9	3	1	0	0		2	0	0						615,597
	2	-	4	-	1	Out		No															0	1	13	0	0	1	4	10	19	19	9	9	10	4	1	0	0			0	0							49,179
9	3	-	0	-	4	Out		No																0	0			0	0	0	2	8	13	4	12	19	16	9	3	1	0	12	2	0	0					370,221
	2	-	3	-	2	Out		No																0	2		0	0	0	1	4	13	20	4	12	17	13	6	2	0	0	5	1	0	0					236,712
	1	-	6	-	0	Out		No																0	7				0	1	8	20	22	3	9	14	9	3	1			2								859
8	2	-	2	-	3	Out		No																	0				0	0	0	2	10	0	3	9	16	18	12	5	1	15	7	1	0	0	0			565,300
	1	-	5	-	1	Out		No																	0					0	0	4	18	0	3	10	17	17	11	4	1	10	4	1	0					12,036
7	2	-	1	-	4	Out		No																							0	0	2	0	0	1	4	9	14	13	6	15	20	12	4	1	0	0		671,116
	1	-	4	-	2	Out		No																	0						0	0	4	0	0	1	5	12	17	14	5	14	16	8	2	0	0		0	71,901
	0	-	7	-	0	Out		No																									6		1	3	9	17	30	4	3	9	10	7						89
6	2	-	0	-	5	Out		No																								0	0		0	0	0	1	4	9	9	6	18	24	18	8	2	0	0	315,572
	1	-	3	-	3	Out		No																								0	0	0	0	0	0	2	6	13	12	6	18	22	15	6	1	0	0	226,719
	0	-	6	-	1	Out		No																									1				0	2	9	16	12	6	17	19	12	4	0			1,233
5	1	-	2	-	4	Out		No																									0				0	0	1	4	10	1	7	18	25	21	11	3	0	399,106
	0	-	5	-	2	Out		No																									0				0	0	1	4	11	1	9	19	26	18	9	2	0	8,604
4	1	-	1	-	5	Out		No																															0	0	4	0	1	5	15	26	28	16	4	369,224
	0	-	4	-	3	Out		No																															0	1	5	0	1	6	17	27	26	14	3	33,379
3	1	-	0	-	6	Out		No																																0	1	0	0	1	3	13	28	36	19	140,897
	0	-	3	-	4	Out		No																																0	1		0	1	4	14	29	34	17	77,572
2	0	-	2	-	5	Out		No																																	0		0	0	0	3	15	39	42	106,401
1	0	-	1	-	6	Out		No																																					0	0	4	25	71	80,325
0	0	-	0	-	7	Out		No																																						0	0	6	94	26,025

Total:						5.0	%	5.0	%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	5	6	5	5	5	4	4	3	5,758,560

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs