How are these numbers calculated?

## Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

 Week of 3/2 100.0* Chance wins title 100.0* Promoted 100.0* Average seed Welling United 3 Maidenhead 2 -5.5 -4.1 -0.1 Salisbury City 1 Weston-S-Mare 1 -4.1 -3.1 -0.1 Staines Town 1 Chelmsford City 3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.0 Dover Athletic 2 Bath City 0 -0.2 -0.1 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Salisbury City vs Basingstoke +4.5-3.6-6.9 +3.5-2.7-5.3 +0.2-0.1-0.3 Weston-S-Mare vs Chelmsford City +0.5+0.3-0.6 +0.4+0.2-0.4 +0.1+0.0-0.1 Maidenhead vs Dover Athletic +0.2+0.1-0.3 +0.1+0.1-0.2 +0.1+0.0-0.1 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Week of 3/9 100.0* Chance wins title 100.0* Promoted 100.0* Average seed Weston-S-Mare vs Salisbury City -5.9-2.4+6.3 -4.5-1.8+4.8 -0.2-0.1+0.2 Welling United vs Tonbridge -3.5+3.4+7.7 -2.6+2.6+5.8 -0.0+0.0+0.1 Welling United vs Basingstoke -3.8+3.0+7.3 -2.8+2.3+5.5 -0.0+0.0+0.1 Chelmsford City vs AFC Hornchurch -0.4+0.3+0.6 -0.3+0.3+0.5 -0.1+0.0+0.1 Chelmsford City vs Tonbridge -0.4+0.4+0.6 -0.3+0.3+0.4 -0.1+0.0+0.1 Dover Athletic vs Havant and W -0.2+0.1+0.2 -0.1+0.1+0.2 -0.0+0.0+0.1 Dorchester Town vs Boreham Wood +0.1*+0.0-0.1 +0.1*+0.0-0.1 Eastleigh vs Boreham Wood +0.0*+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

## What If

Chances based on how well the Salisbury City finish out the regular season.   Explain

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance Chance will finish season at seed TP W - D - L wins title Promoted 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Relegated Count 93 10 - 0 - 0 99.0 % 99.3 % 99 1 No 5,938 91 9 - 1 - 0 95.4 96.6 95 5 No 24,995 90 9 - 0 - 1 90.6 92.9 91 9 No 28,809 89 8 - 2 - 0 87.9 91.0 88 12 0 No 65,929 88 8 - 1 - 1 79.8 84.8 80 20 0 No 151,923 87 7 - 3 - 0 74.6 81.0 75 25 0 No 102,494 8 - 0 - 2 69.5 77.1 69 30 0 No 86,141 86 7 - 2 - 1 63.4 72.6 63 36 0 No 350,763 85 7 - 1 - 2 51.6 63.7 52 48 0 No 398,805 6 - 4 - 0 56.5 67.4 57 43 0 No 105,018 84 6 - 3 - 1 44.1 58.1 44 55 1 0 No 473,804 7 - 0 - 3 39.6 54.7 40 59 1 0 No 150,398 83 6 - 2 - 2 32.7 49.5 33 65 2 0 No 807,202 5 - 5 - 0 36.9 52.7 37 61 2 0 No 72,626 82 6 - 1 - 3 22.6 42.0 23 72 5 0 0 No 608,100 5 - 4 - 1 25.7 44.3 26 70 4 0 No 410,550 81 5 - 3 - 2 16.9 37.6 17 74 9 0 0 No 929,988 6 - 0 - 4 14.5 35.9 15 76 10 0 0 No 170,612 4 - 6 - 0 19.3 39.5 19 73 7 0 No 35,116 80 5 - 2 - 3 10.1 32.6 10 75 15 0 0 No 1,046,533 4 - 5 - 1 11.8 33.8 12 75 13 0 0 No 237,152 79 4 - 4 - 2 6.6 29.9 7 71 21 1 0 No 669,897 5 - 1 - 4 5.5 29.1 6 70 23 1 0 No 598,291 * 78 4 - 3 - 3 3.3 27.4 3 64 30 3 0 No 1,002,550 5 - 0 - 5 2.7 27.0 3 62 32 4 0 No 130,814 3 - 6 - 1 3.9 27.9 4 65 28 2 0 No 91,255 77 4 - 2 - 4 1.4 26.1 1 53 39 6 0 0 No 839,124 3 - 5 - 2 1.8 26.4 2 55 37 6 0 No 309,335 * 76 3 - 4 - 3 0.7 25.5 1 43 45 11 1 0 No 573,827 4 - 1 - 5 0.5 25.4 1 41 46 12 1 0 No 395,911 * 75 3 - 3 - 4 0.2 25.2 0 31 49 19 2 0 No 640,621 2 - 6 - 2 0.3 25.2 0 32 48 17 2 0 No 88,327 4 - 0 - 6 0.2 25.1 0 29 49 20 2 0 No 69,295 * 74 3 - 2 - 5 0.1 25.0 0 20 47 28 4 0 0 No 425,089 2 - 5 - 3 0.1 25.0 0 21 48 27 4 0 No 199,596 * 73 2 - 4 - 4 0.0 25.0 0 13 43 36 8 0 0 No 272,147 3 - 1 - 6 0.0 25.0 0 12 42 37 9 0 0 No 171,021 * 72 2 - 3 - 5 0.0 24.8 0 6 34 44 15 1 0 No 266,019 * 1 - 6 - 3 No 24.9 7 36 42 14 0 0 No 37,510 * 71 2 - 2 - 6 0.0 24.5 0 3 23 47 25 2 0 0 No 132,531 1 - 5 - 4 0.0 24.6 0 3 25 47 23 2 0 No 63,413 * 70 1 - 4 - 5 No 23.8 1 16 44 34 5 0 0 No 67,985 2 - 1 - 7 No 23.7 1 14 44 36 5 0 0 No 44,749 * 69 1 - 3 - 6 No 22.2 0 8 37 44 10 1 0 No 61,584 * 68 1 - 2 - 7 No 19.4 0 3 26 48 19 3 0 0 No 31,044 * 67 0 - 4 - 6 No 15.4 0 1 15 45 30 7 1 0 No 13,367 * 66 0 - 3 - 7 No 10.7 0 0 7 36 39 15 3 0 No 5,029 * 65 0 - 2 - 8 No 6.4 0 3 22 40 25 8 1 No 1,739 64 0 - 1 - 9 No 3.3 1 13 29 33 21 3 0 No 428 63 0 - 0 - 10 No 1.0 0 4 18 36 29 11 2 0 No 1,574 Total: 15.8 % 36.8 % 16 52 22 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 No 13,466,968

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship