National League North Title Chances

																	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Chance will win title														National League			Chance will finish season at seed																								Demotion
	11/6		P	G	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change		%	Change		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	Avg.	Change	%	Change		RPI	Strength	Saturday

Chorley			30	1	9	-	3	-	3	14	40.5	%	-0.8	49.8	%	-0.6	40	21	13	9	6	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2.7	-0.03	0.0	%		2	.627	Darlington	Chorley

Spennymoor Town			29		8	-	5	-	3	15	19.1		-0.4	30.9		-0.3	19	19	16	13	10	8	6	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3.9	-0.03	0.0			5	.609	Stockport County	Spennymoor Town
Bradford Park A			30		9	-	3	-	4	10	10.8		-0.2	22.9		-0.2	11	14	15	14	12	10	8	6	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4.7	-0.02	0.0			3	.560	at Curzon Ashton	Bradford Park Avenue
Kidderminster H			29		8	-	5	-	3	11	9.4		-0.4	21.0		-0.4	9	12	13	13	12	11	9	7	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.1	-0.05	0.0			6	.563	at Nuneaton Town	Kidderminster Harriers
Chester	W	Nuneaton Town 3-2	29	1	8	-	5	-	2	8	9.1		+2.2	20.6		+2.9	9	12	13	13	12	10	9	7	5	4	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.2	+0.58	0.0		-0.0	1	.538	Altrincham	Chester
Brackley Town			26		7	-	5	-	4	12	4.4		-0.2	14.8		-0.2	4	8	10	11	12	12	11	9	8	6	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3	-0.02	0.0		+0.0	7	.579	Blyth Spartans	Brackley Town
Stockport County			23	1	6	-	5	-	4	8	2.7		-0.1	11.2		-0.1	3	5	7	8	10	11	11	11	10	8	6	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.3	-0.01	0.1		+0.0	8	.568	at Spennymoor Town	Stockport County

Boston United			25		8	-	1	-	7	5	1.8		-0.1	9.5		-0.1	2	4	5	7	9	10	11	11	11	9	7	5	4	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	7.8		0.1		+0.0	9	.535	at Telford United	Boston United
Telford United			25		6	-	7	-	3	2	1.0		-0.0	7.1		-0.1	1	2	4	5	7	9	10	11	11	10	9	7	5	4	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	8.7	+0.01	0.1		+0.0	4	.500	Boston United	Telford United
Altrincham			22	1	6	-	4	-	5	8	1.0		-0.0	6.5		-0.1	1	2	3	5	6	8	9	10	11	11	9	7	6	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	9.0	+0.01	0.2		+0.0	15	.538	at Chester	Altrincham
Leamington			19	1	5	-	4	-	6	-1	0.0		-0.0	1.1		-0.0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	6	7	9	10	11	10	10	8	7	5	3	2	1	0	13.2	+0.03	3.2		+0.2	13	.467	at York City	Leamington
Alfreton Town			18	1	5	-	3	-	7	-3	0.0		-0.0	1.0		-0.0	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	4	5	7	9	10	10	10	10	9	7	6	4	2	1	0	13.4	+0.03	4.0		+0.2	10	.447	at Ashton United	Alfreton Town
Guiseley	L	Ashton United 0-1	19		4	-	7	-	5	-2	0.0		-0.1	0.8		-0.8	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	5	7	8	10	10	11	10	9	8	6	4	3	1	0	13.6	-1.09	4.2		+1.9	14	.453	at Southport	Guiseley
Darlington			19		4	-	7	-	5	-2	0.0		-0.0	0.8		-0.0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	5	6	8	10	10	11	10	9	8	6	4	3	1	0	13.6	+0.03	4.3		+0.2	16	.458	at Chorley	Darlington
York City			19	1	5	-	4	-	6	-4	0.0		-0.0	0.8		-0.0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	5	6	8	9	10	10	10	9	8	6	5	3	1	0	13.7	+0.02	4.6		+0.3	12	.434	Leamington	York City
Curzon Ashton			20		5	-	5	-	6	-5	0.0		-0.0	0.6		-0.0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	4	5	7	9	10	11	11	10	9	7	5	4	2	0	14.2	+0.04	5.8		+0.2	11	.410	Bradford Park A	Curzon Ashton
Blyth Spartans			16	1	5	-	1	-	9	-8	0.0			0.2		+0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	6	7	9	10	11	12	11	9	7	4	1	15.7	+0.06	12.7		+0.3	18	.407	at Brackley Town	Blyth Spartans
Ashton United	W	Guiseley 1-0	17		4	-	5	-	7	-18	0.0			0.0		+0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	6	8	10	13	15	16	14	6	18.0	+0.62	35.6		-9.4	17	.345	Alfreton Town	Ashton United
Hereford			14	1	3	-	5	-	7	-9	0.0			0.0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	6	8	10	13	15	16	14	7	18.0		36.6		+1.0	19	.365	FC United	Hereford

FC United			14		3	-	5	-	8	-12	0.0			0.0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	6	8	12	15	18	19	10	18.8	-0.01	47.6		+1.1	20	.364	at Hereford	FC United
Southport			11	1	2	-	5	-	8	-8	0.0			0.0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	6	8	11	14	18	21	12	18.9	-0.02	50.6		+1.2	21	.397	Guiseley	Southport
Nuneaton Town	L	Chester 2-3	10		2	-	4	-	10	-21	0.0			0.0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	5	9	19	62	21.2	-0.16	90.2		+2.7	22	.298	Kidderminster H	Nuneaton Town

Week of 10/13
Bradford Park A 1 Kidderminster H 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	National League	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Chorley	-1.8		-1.5
Spennymoor Town	-0.2
Bradford Park A	-0.7		-2.1		+0.2		-0.9
Kidderminster H	+3.1		+3.7				+0.7

Telford United 1 Chorley 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	National League	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Chorley	-0.7		-0.5
Spennymoor Town	+0.2		+0.2
Kidderminster H	+0.4		+0.3
Brackley Town	+0.1
Telford United	-0.3		-0.6				-0.2

Spennymoor Town 5 Ashton United 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	National League	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Chorley	-0.6		-0.5
Spennymoor Town	+0.9		+1.5				+0.5
Darlington					-0.2
Curzon Ashton					-0.2
Blyth Spartans					-0.2
Ashton United			-0.2		+2.2		-0.4
Hereford					-0.3
FC United					-0.3
Southport					-0.3
Nuneaton Town					-0.4

Guiseley 2 Brackley Town 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	National League	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Chorley	+0.4		+0.3
Brackley Town	-0.7		-1.6				-0.6
Guiseley			+1.1		-1.1		+0.9
Hereford					+0.2

Boston United 4 Blyth Spartans 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	National League	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Chorley	-0.2		-0.2
Boston United	+0.4		+1.3		-0.2		+0.6
Darlington					-0.3
Curzon Ashton					-0.3
Blyth Spartans			-0.2		+2.9		-0.5
Ashton United					-0.2
Hereford					-0.4
FC United					-0.3
Southport					-0.4
Nuneaton Town					-0.5

Southport 1 York City 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	National League	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Chorley	-0.2
Altrincham					-0.3
Guiseley					-0.2
Darlington					-0.8
York City	+0.3		+1.6		-0.8		+1.0
Curzon Ashton					-0.8
Blyth Spartans					-0.7
Ashton United					-0.6
Hereford					-1.1
FC United					-0.8
Southport					+7.7		-0.5
Nuneaton Town					-1.1

Stockport County 1 Hereford 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	National League	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Stockport County	-0.2		-1.0		+0.3		-0.6
Darlington					*+0.1
Curzon Ashton					*+0.1
Blyth Spartans					+0.1
Ashton United					*+0.1
Hereford					-1.5		+0.1
FC United					+0.1
Southport					+0.2
Nuneaton Town					+0.2

Leamington 0 Curzon Ashton 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	National League	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Altrincham					+0.3
Leamington	-0.2		-1.5		+1.5		-1.2
Darlington					+0.7
Curzon Ashton			+0.5		-7.6		+1.2
Blyth Spartans					+0.5
Ashton United					+0.5
Hereford					+0.8
FC United					+0.8
Southport					+1.0
Nuneaton Town					+1.0

Altrincham 3 Alfreton Town 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	National League	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Altrincham			+0.5		-2.2		+0.7
Alfreton Town			-0.8		+0.6		-0.6
Darlington					+0.2
Curzon Ashton					+0.2
Hereford					+0.2
FC United					+0.2
Southport					+0.2
Nuneaton Town					+0.3

FC United 1 Darlington 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	National League	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Darlington			+0.3		-7.1		+0.9
FC United	No				+7.2		-0.4

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

National League North Title Chances

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