Manchester City Title Chances

Beat Newcastle 5-0, title odds up 9.3 to 18.3%
55 points   16-7-3

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 2/21100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Average seed
Chelsea 1 Burnley 1 +3.4
+0.0
Man City 5 Newcastle 0 +2.0
+1.6
+0.1
Southampton 0 Liverpool 2 +0.1
+0.4
+0.1
Swansea 2 Man United 1 +0.1
+0.8
+0.1
Crystal Palace 1 Arsenal 2 -0.7
Tottenham 2 West Ham 2 +0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 2/28100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Average seed
Leicester vs Chelsea+10.2+4.9-3.7
+0.1+0.1-0.0
Liverpool vs Man City-6.8-3.0+6.5
-1.4*+0.0+1.1
-0.2-0.0+0.2
West Ham vs Chelsea+7.3+2.3-5.7
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Man City vs Leicester+2.8-5.6-8.9
+0.6-1.0-2.6
+0.1-0.2-0.3
QPR vs Arsenal+0.2+0.1-0.1
+0.3+0.2-0.2
Arsenal vs Everton-0.1+0.1+0.2
-0.2+0.2+0.4
West Brom vs Southampton+0.1+0.1-0.0
+0.4+0.2-0.2
Southampton vs Crystal Palace-0.0+0.1+0.1
-0.1+0.2+0.4
Newcastle vs Man United+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.4+0.2-0.2
Man United vs Sunderland-0.0+0.1+0.1
-0.1+0.2+0.4
Liverpool vs Burnley-0.1+0.1+0.2
QPR vs Tottenham+0.1+0.1-0.1
Tottenham vs Swansea-0.1+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Man City finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleUEFA CL1234567891011121314151617181920DemotedCount
9112-0-095.7%Yes964No674,580
8911-1-088.4Yes8812No2,687,676
8811-0-182.5Yes8317No3,037,217
8710-2-076.0Yes7624No5,366,180
8610-1-168.0Yes6832No12,035,998
8510-0-258.7Yes5941No6,596,449
9-3-059.5Yes5941No6,478,006
849-2-150.1Yes50500No21,587,315
839-1-240.9Yes41590No23,466,713
8-4-041.7Yes42580No5,255,901
828-3-132.7Yes336700No23,165,972
9-0-332.0Yes326800No8,311,376
818-2-224.8Yes257500No37,444,380
7-5-025.5Yes25740No3,023,613
808-1-317.8100.0%1881100No26,284,877
7-4-118.5Yes188110No16,528,132
797-3-212.6100.01385300No35,304,048
8-0-412.3100.01285300No8,027,254*
787-2-38.1100.0886600No36,854,062
6-5-18.6100.0987500No8,221,578
776-4-25.2100.05851000No21,773,010
7-1-44.8100.05831100No19,171,208*
766-3-32.8100.037917100No30,044,071
7-0-52.5100.037620100No3,735,540
5-6-13.0100.03821410No2,914,176
756-2-41.399.916927300No22,782,831
5-5-21.599.927224200No9,258,749*
745-4-30.699.715934600No15,698,990
6-1-50.699.515536700No9,718,175*
735-3-40.298.80444212100No19,866,353*
725-2-50.196.10294522400No9,224,453
4-5-30.197.30334519300No5,584,503*
714-4-40.092.301943307000No6,771,082
5-1-60.090.601741329100No3,465,571*
704-3-50.082.8010343815200No6,916,545*
694-2-60.069.105244126500No4,413,822*
683-4-50.052.20214373611100No2,625,338*
673-3-6No34.617274220300No1,512,167*
663-2-7No19.703174031810No816,493*
652-4-6No9.401933391620No410,350*
642-3-7No3.800422412750No196,467*
632-2-8No1.3011237381100No87,520*
621-4-7No0.400628442010No35,402*
611-3-8No0.10218443230No13,612*
601-2-9No0.00110394370No4,660*
590-4-8NoNo062850141No1,409*
580-3-9NoNo21655253No344*
570-2-10NoNo11643364No76
560-1-11NoNo838468No13
550-0-12NoNo0127521810No60,623
Total:18.3%98.4%186511410000000No487,454,880

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship