How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/14100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Promoted100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Lincoln City FC 1 Southport 0 +1.3
+2.5
-0.6
+0.8
Cambridge United 1 Gateshead FC 0 -0.5
-0.4
Dartford 1 Nuneaton Town 2 -0.4
-0.4
Barnet 1 Lincoln City FC 1 -0.3
-0.4
-0.1
Nuneaton Town 2 Hereford United 1 -0.3
-0.3
Alfreton Town 1 Cambridge United 1 +0.1
+0.2
Welling United 5 Forest Green Ro 2 +0.1
+0.2
Forest Green Ro 2 FC Halifax Town 1 -0.1
-0.1
Kidderminster H 2 Hyde FC 1 -0.1
-0.2
Tamworth 0 Kidderminster H 3 -0.1
-0.2
FC Halifax Town 4 Grimsby Town 0 +0.1
Macclesfield Town 0 Alfreton Town 1 -0.2
-0.1
Salisbury City 3 Chester FC 1 -0.1
Luton Town 3 Dartford 0 -0.1
Salisbury City 1 Braintree Town 1 +0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/21100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Promoted100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Luton Town vs Lincoln City FC-1.8-0.4+2.9
-2.9-0.4+4.5
+0.2-0.0-0.3
-0.6-0.0+1.0
Hereford United vs Lincoln City FC-1.9-0.7+2.5
-3.1-0.9+3.8
+0.2*-0.0-0.3
-0.7-0.1+0.9
Cambridge United vs Forest Green Ro-0.5+0.3+0.5
-0.4+0.3+0.3
Nuneaton Town vs Salisbury City-0.5+0.3+0.5
-0.4+0.3+0.4
Cambridge United vs Nuneaton Town-0.2+0.4-0.1
-0.1+0.3-0.1
Dartford vs Kidderminster H+0.2+0.1-0.2
+0.3+0.1-0.3
Barnet vs Macclesfield Town-0.1+0.1+0.2
-0.2+0.2+0.3
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Forest Green Ro vs Tamworth-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.2+0.1+0.3
Kidderminster H vs FC Halifax Town-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.1+0.2+0.1
Woking vs Luton Town+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.2+0.1-0.2
Alfreton Town vs Barnet+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.0+0.1-0.2
Southport vs Alfreton Town+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.1-0.2
Salisbury City vs Hyde FC-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.1+0.1+0.2
FC Halifax Town vs Hereford United-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.1+0.1+0.1
Grimsby Town vs Dartford-0.1+0.1+0.1
Hyde FC vs Welling United+0.1+0.0-0.1
Chester FC vs Grimsby Town+0.1+0.0-0.1
Welling United vs Aldershot Town-0.1+0.1+0.1
Aldershot Town vs Wrexham+0.0+0.0-0.1
Braintree Town vs Southport-0.0+0.1*-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Lincoln City FC finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titlePromoted123456789101112131415161718192021222324RelegatedCount
100-128YesYes100No32,997*
9923-13-198.4%98.8%982No243
95-98YesYes100No101*
9420-17-080.080.08020No5
9219-18-075.075.07525No4
9018-19-0YesYes100No10
8830-1-685.085.08515No20*
8616-21-050.050.05050No2
81-84YesYes100No201*
7930-2-596.896.8973No31*
7829-4-4YesYes100No354*
7728-6-399.599.51000No422
74-76YesYes100No1,018*
7225-10-299.799.710000No933*
7128-0-9YesYes100No20
709-26-2NoNo100No1
6918-18-182.185.78218No84
6827-0-10YesYes100No61
6722-14-198.398.7982No232
6320-16-194.695.9955No148
6119-17-184.787.685121111No137*
5717-19-173.880.37426No61
5612-23-222.233.322112244No9
5411-24-2No20.0404020No5
5315-21-150.058.350428No12
5215-20-230.347.730511631No195
5014-21-212.134.1124232113No91
4813-22-28.628.6917462063No35
4713-21-34.327.64223527102No352
454-26-7NoNo100No1
4311-23-3No13.32929183372No45
4110-24-3No7.1721212921No14
399-25-3NoNo252550No4
389-24-4NoNo41814251477444No28*
375-25-7NoNo252550No4
368-25-4NoNo20402020No5
349-0-28NoNo5050Yes2
337-25-5NoNo501733No6
313-25-9NoNo100No1
306-25-6NoNo102030102010No10
282-25-10NoNo5050Yes2
272-24-11NoNo100Yes1
2613-0-24NoNo31616282513No32
244-25-8NoNo100No1
2011-0-26NoNo3367Yes3
1929-5-3YesYes100No126
170-0-370.90.9109999.1%32,904*
1628-5-499.999.91000No763
1528-4-599.999.91000No2,081*
1427-6-499.999.91000No3,246*
1327-5-599.799.71000No6,275*
1226-7-499.899.81000No10,025*
1126-6-599.499.5991No17,816*
1026-5-699.399.49910000.028,739*
925-7-598.999.2991No45,036*
825-6-698.598.8982000.069,895*
724-8-597.798.39820No106,364*
624-7-696.997.6973000.0158,790*
524-6-795.596.6954000.0232,791*
423-8-693.895.49460No336,602*
323-7-791.793.892800No474,534*
223-6-888.991.78911000No658,150*
122-8-785.689.2861410No901,104*
022-7-881.486.0811810No1,208,285*
-121-9-776.482.37622200No1,598,414*
-221-8-870.577.97127300No2,075,372*
-321-7-963.972.96432400No2,650,653*
-420-9-856.567.456377000No3,336,143*
-520-8-948.661.5494110100No4,127,555*
-620-7-1040.555.44044142000No5,025,596*
-719-9-932.449.33245193000No6,022,208*
-819-8-1024.743.52545255100No7,104,379*
-918-10-917.838.418423091000No8,255,232*
-1018-9-1012.134.0123635143000No9,445,132*
-1118-8-117.530.5830372051000No10,627,396*
-1217-10-104.327.84223726920000No11,776,965*
-1317-9-112.225.621533311541000No12,851,596*
-1417-8-121.023.519263321710000No13,821,776*
-1516-10-110.421.0051832281341000No14,613,681*
-1616-9-120.117.70211263120820000No15,217,287*
-1716-8-130.013.70161830261441000No15,606,883*
-1815-10-120.09.4003112429219200000No15,764,621*
-1915-9-130.05.6001516272716610000No15,670,287*
-2014-11-120.02.8000292128241241000No15,336,322*
-2114-10-13No1.1001412242820920000No14,780,360*
-2214-9-14No0.30001616262616620000No14,022,539*
-2313-11-13No0.100028192724135100000No13,084,702*
-2413-10-14No0.0000131122272211310000No12,023,045*
-2513-9-15No0.00001413242719920000No10,869,099*
-2612-11-14No0.00001615252617720000No9,673,684*
-2712-10-15No0.00000281827251451000No8,470,361*
-2812-9-16NoNo0000392027231241000No7,289,078*
-2911-11-15NoNo00001412232821103000000.06,171,134*
-3011-10-16NoNo0001514252718720000.05,136,384*
-3111-9-17NoNo0002717272615510000.04,208,635*
-3210-11-16NoNo00002920282412310000.03,383,971*
-3310-10-17NoNo0001412242920920000.32,678,297*
-3410-9-18NoNo0001516272716610001.12,080,937*
-359-11-17NoNo0000282029251230003.61,587,978*
-369-10-18NoNo000141225302071009.01,188,544*
-379-9-19NoNo000161829271440018.4875,456*
-388-11-18NoNo00031024312281031.8632,647*
-398-10-19NoNo0015163029153047.6446,361*
-408-9-20NoNo002102433227163.2310,434*
-417-11-19NoNo001518323013276.2211,290*
-427-10-20NoNo000211283520486.2141,186*
-437-9-21NoNo0016213727792.692,191*
-446-11-20NoNo0031534351296.458,799*
-456-10-21NoNo0021030411898.436,836*
-466-9-22NoNo01624442699.322,383*
-475-11-21NoNo00318443499.713,305*
-485-10-22NoNo0213424499.97,756*
-495-9-23NoNo0193753100.04,319*
-504-11-22NoNo063261Yes2,404*
-514-10-23NoNo032869Yes1,323*
-524-9-24NoNo12376Yes682*
-534-8-25NoNo01783Yes344*
-543-10-24NoNo1792Yes152*
-553-9-25NoNo1990Yes77*
-563-8-26NoNo892Yes25*
-572-10-25NoNo1189Yes18*
-59--58NoNo100Yes9*
Total:7.1%16.8%7101010987765443322111000000.5%314,765,712

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship