"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 8/13100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Promoted100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Tamworth 2 AFC Telford 1 -0.2
-0.2
-0.1
AFC Fylde 1 Brackley Town 1 +0.1
+0.2
FC Halifax Town 3 Worcester City 0 -0.1
-0.1
Curzon Ashton 1 Darlington 1883 2 -0.1
-0.1
Kidderminster H 0 Chorley 0 +0.1
+0.1
Harrogate Town 2 Altrincham 2 +0.1
+0.1
*-0.1
Darlington 1883 4 Boston United 1 -0.1
-0.1
-0.1
Alfreton Town 0 Curzon Ashton 1 +0.1
+0.1
Gloucester City 4 Gainsborough Tr 1 -0.1
Bradford Park A 1 Nuneaton Town 1 +0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Salford City vs FC United of Ma-1.8-0.5+2.3
-2.7-0.7+3.5
+1.8+0.2-2.2
-0.9-0.2+1.1
Boston United vs Tamworth+0.2+0.1-0.2
+0.2+0.1-0.2
+0.2-0.0-0.1
Worcester City vs Gloucester City+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.1+0.1-0.2
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Stockport County vs FC Halifax Town+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.0+0.1-0.1
Gainsborough Tr vs Harrogate Town+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Nuneaton Town vs Kidderminster H+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Altrincham vs AFC Fylde+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.0+0.1-0.1
Brackley Town vs Alfreton Town-0.1+0.1+0.0
-0.1+0.1+0.0
Chorley vs Bradford Park A-0.0+0.1-0.0
AFC Telford vs Stalybridge Cel+0.0-0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/20100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Promoted100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
FC United of Ma vs Worcester City+1.8-0.8-1.9
+2.7-1.2-2.9
-2.1+0.5+2.5
+0.9-0.3-1.1
Darlington 1883 vs Chorley-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.1-0.0+0.1
Nuneaton Town vs Salford City+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.1-0.0-0.1
FC Halifax Town vs Tamworth-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.2-0.1
Gloucester City vs Darlington 1883+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.0+0.1-0.1
Kidderminster H vs Stalybridge Cel-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.1-0.0+0.1
AFC Fylde vs Salford City+0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.1
Alfreton Town vs AFC Fylde+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.0+0.1-0.1
Bradford Park A vs Harrogate Town+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.0+0.1-0.1
Stockport County vs Brackley Town-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.0
Chorley vs Boston United-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.1-0.1+0.1
Gainsborough Tr vs Altrincham+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.1-0.1-0.1
Curzon Ashton vs AFC Telford-0.0-0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the FC United of Ma finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titlePromoted12345678910111213141516171819202122RelegatedCount
99-122YesYes100No207,054*
9829-6-4100.0%100.0%1000No3,743*
9729-5-5100.0100.01000No6,641*
9629-4-6100.0100.01000No11,456*
9528-6-599.999.91000No19,197*
9428-5-699.9100.01000No31,949*
9328-4-799.999.91000No51,779*
9227-6-699.999.91000No83,213*
9127-5-799.899.81000No130,004*
9026-7-699.799.81000No201,188*
8926-6-799.599.710000No305,450*
8826-5-899.299.49910No454,860*
8725-7-798.999.29910No670,450*
8625-6-898.498.89820No967,730*
8525-5-997.698.298200No1,377,315*
8424-7-896.597.496300No1,929,169*
8324-6-994.996.295500No2,663,492*
8223-8-892.894.693700No3,620,540*
8123-7-989.992.59010000No4,851,123*
8023-6-1086.289.68613100No6,398,649*
7922-8-981.386.08117100No8,316,558*
7822-7-1075.381.575222000No10,667,236*
7722-6-1168.176.168284000No13,474,602*
7621-8-1059.769.8603361000No16,786,503*
7521-7-1150.462.85038101000No20,589,640*
7421-6-1240.555.441411530000No24,934,064*
7320-8-1130.748.031422151000No29,769,492*
7220-7-1221.741.2224027920000No35,048,998*
7119-9-1114.035.314353215400000No40,670,549*
7019-8-128.130.78273421710000No46,554,882*
6919-7-134.127.0419322813410000No52,587,440*
6818-9-121.823.82112631208200000No58,554,477*
6718-8-130.620.41518292715510000No64,333,819*
6618-7-140.216.1021023292210310000No69,669,333*
6517-9-130.011.0014142528188200000No74,465,140*
6417-8-140.06.2001617272615610000No78,493,450*
6317-7-150.02.700028202724134100000No81,602,337*
6216-9-140.00.90000310212722114100000No83,665,044*
6116-8-15No0.2000141223272110310000No84,608,644*
6016-7-16No0.0000014132327209300000No84,376,035*
5915-9-15No0.0000015142427198200000No82,979,859*
5815-8-16No0.00000151425271872000000.0%80,494,237*
5715-7-17No0.0000016152526177200000.076,981,690*
5614-9-16NoNo000026162626166100000.072,591,659*
5514-8-17NoNo000027182725155100000.067,489,718*
5413-10-16NoNo000002819282413410000.161,841,996*
5313-9-17NoNo000003102128231130000.555,866,245*
5213-8-18NoNo0000141224282082002.049,736,190*
5112-10-17NoNo000015162728175106.343,617,577*
5012-9-18NoNo0000028203025123014.737,731,136*
4912-8-19NoNo000013122531207127.732,122,022*
4811-10-18NoNo00001618312913243.726,938,907*
4711-9-19NoNo0000311263421559.922,257,292*
4611-8-20NoNo00016193530973.818,104,539*
4510-10-19NoNo00031331371684.314,492,808*
4410-9-20NoNo00001726422491.411,424,938*
4310-8-21NoNo0000419433495.68,858,238*
429-10-20NoNo000213414497.96,756,810*
419-9-21NoNo0019375499.15,067,541*
409-8-22NoNo0005326399.63,740,875*
398-10-21NoNo003267199.82,709,639*
388-9-22NoNo002207899.91,929,458*
378-8-23NoNo011584100.01,348,632*
367-10-22NoNo001288100.0924,999*
357-9-23NoNo00891100.0623,389*
347-8-24NoNo00694100.0411,554*
336-10-23NoNo0496Yes266,931*
326-9-24NoNo0397Yes169,456*
316-8-25NoNo0298Yes105,206*
306-7-26NoNo0199Yes63,715*
295-9-25NoNo199Yes38,014*
285-8-26NoNo0100Yes21,754*
275-7-27NoNo0100Yes12,331*
264-9-26NoNo0100Yes6,844*
254-8-27NoNo0100Yes3,706*
5-24NoNo100Yes206,322*
Total:5.9%11.9%66666665555554444333226.3%1,791,089,472

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship