Curzon Ashton Title Chances 2018-2019

Did not play, title odds down 0.0005 to 0.02%

20 points 5-5-6

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 10/13	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	National League	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Leamington 0 Curzon Ashton 1	+0.1		+0.5		-7.6		+1.2
Southport 1 York City 2					-0.8
Boston United 4 Blyth Spartans 0					-0.3		+0.0
Spennymoor Town 5 Ashton United 0					-0.2		+0.0
Altrincham 3 Alfreton Town 1					+0.2
Stockport County 1 Hereford 1					*+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Curzon Ashton finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance		National		Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	wins title		League		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	Demotion		Count

98		26	-	0	-	0	100.0	%	100.0	%	100	0																					No		289,941
89	-91						Yes		Yes		100																						No		13	*
88		22	-	2	-	2	92.9		92.9		93	7																					No		14	*
87		21	-	4	-	1	Yes		Yes		100																						No		51	*
86		21	-	3	-	2	94.6		95.3		95	5																					No		129	*
85		21	-	2	-	3	90.4		92.0		90	9	0																				No		324	*
84		20	-	4	-	2	86.0		88.3		86	14	0																				No		729	*
83		20	-	3	-	3	81.5		84.6		81	17	1																				No		1,748	*
82		19	-	5	-	2	75.6		79.7		76	23	2	0																			No		3,596	*
81		19	-	4	-	3	66.3		71.9		66	30	4	0																			No		7,724	*
80		19	-	3	-	4	58.3		65.3		58	35	6	0																			No		15,598	*
79		18	-	5	-	3	48.0		56.6		48	41	10	1	0																		No		30,515	*
78		18	-	4	-	4	38.3		48.6		38	44	15	2	0	0																	No		58,688	*
77		18	-	3	-	5	28.0		40.0		28	45	22	4	0	0	0																No		109,183	*
76		17	-	5	-	4	19.3		32.8		19	42	29	8	1	0	0																No		198,026	*
75		17	-	4	-	5	12.1		26.8		12	36	35	14	3	0	0	0															No		349,014	*
74		16	-	6	-	4	6.9		22.4		7	28	37	21	6	1	0	0	0														No		599,647	*
73		16	-	5	-	5	3.4		19.5		3	19	35	28	11	2	0	0	0														No		999,648	*
72		16	-	4	-	6	1.5		17.9		1	12	29	33	18	5	1	0	0														No		1,630,076	*
71		15	-	6	-	5	0.5		17.1		1	6	21	33	26	11	2	0	0	0													No		2,576,437	*
70		15	-	5	-	6	0.2		16.7		0	3	13	28	31	18	5	1	0	0	0												No		3,992,352	*
69		15	-	4	-	7	0.0		16.2		0	1	7	20	32	26	11	3	0	0	0												No		6,022,825	*
68		14	-	6	-	6	0.0		15.4		0	0	3	12	27	31	19	6	1	0	0	0											No		8,865,181	*
67		14	-	5	-	7	0.0		13.9		0	0	1	6	19	31	27	13	3	0	0	0											No		12,731,514	*
66		14	-	4	-	8	0.0		11.6		0	0	0	2	10	25	32	22	8	1	0	0	0										No		17,851,275	*
65		13	-	6	-	7	0.0		8.6		0	0	0	1	5	16	30	29	15	4	0	0	0	0									No		24,423,261	*
64		13	-	5	-	8	No		5.5			0	0	0	2	8	23	32	24	9	2	0	0	0									No		32,625,009	*
63		12	-	7	-	7	No		3.0			0	0	0	0	4	14	29	31	17	5	1	0	0									No		42,569,155	*
62		12	-	6	-	8	No		1.3				0	0	0	1	7	21	33	26	10	2	0	0	0	0							No		54,185,223	*
61		12	-	5	-	9	No		0.5				0	0	0	0	3	12	28	33	19	5	1	0	0	0							No		67,384,678	*
60		11	-	7	-	8	No		0.1					0	0	0	1	5	19	33	28	12	2	0	0	0	0						No		81,824,190	*
59		11	-	6	-	9	No		0.0						0	0	0	2	10	26	33	21	6	1	0	0	0						No		97,013,865	*
58		11	-	5	-	10	No		0.0						0	0	0	1	4	17	32	29	13	3	0	0	0						No		112,285,743	*
57		10	-	7	-	9	No		0.0							0	0	0	2	9	25	33	22	8	1	0	0	0					No		126,899,457	*
56		10	-	6	-	10	No		0.0							0	0	0	0	4	16	30	30	15	4	1	0	0	0				No		139,996,813	*
55		10	-	5	-	11	No		0.0								0	0	0	1	8	23	33	24	9	2	0	0	0	0			0.0	%	150,750,784	*
54		9	-	7	-	10	No		No								0	0	0	0	3	14	29	31	17	5	1	0	0	0			0.0		158,386,411	*
53		9	-	6	-	11	No		No								0	0	0	0	1	7	21	32	26	11	2	0	0	0			0.0		162,373,304	*
52		9	-	5	-	12	No		No									0	0	0	0	3	12	27	32	19	6	1	0	0	0		0.0		162,413,466	*
51		8	-	7	-	11	No		No										0	0	0	1	6	19	32	28	12	2	0	0	0		0.0		158,374,022	*
50		8	-	6	-	12	No		No										0	0	0	0	2	10	26	33	21	6	1	0	0	0	0.0		150,527,053	*
49		7	-	8	-	11	No		No											0	0	0	1	5	17	32	30	13	3	0	0	0	0.2		139,452,642	*
48		7	-	7	-	12	No		No												0	0	0	2	9	25	34	22	7	1	0	0	0.9		125,838,520	*
47		7	-	6	-	13	No		No												0	0	0	0	4	16	33	31	13	3	0	0	2.7		110,528,595	*
46		6	-	8	-	12	No		No													0	0	0	1	9	26	35	22	6	1	0	6.7		94,498,770	*
45		6	-	7	-	13	No		No													0	0	0	0	4	17	34	31	12	2	0	14.0		78,566,573	*
44		6	-	6	-	14	No		No														0	0	0	1	10	28	36	21	4	0	25.1		63,491,013	*
43		5	-	8	-	13	No		No														0	0	0	0	4	19	37	30	9	1	39.1		49,826,809	*
42		5	-	7	-	14	No		No															0	0	0	2	12	32	37	16	1	54.2		37,953,142	*
41		5	-	6	-	15	No		No															0	0	0	1	6	25	41	25	3	68.5		28,017,777	*
40		4	-	8	-	14	No		No																0	0	0	3	17	40	34	6	80.2		20,031,305	*
39		4	-	7	-	15	No		No																	0	0	1	10	35	43	11	88.6		13,862,520	*
38		4	-	6	-	16	No		No																	0	0	0	6	28	49	17	94.1		9,264,504	*
37		4	-	5	-	17	No		No																	0	0	0	3	21	52	24	97.2		5,977,683	*
36		3	-	7	-	16	No		No																		0	0	1	14	51	33	98.8		3,709,154	*
35		3	-	6	-	17	No		No																		0	0	0	9	48	43	99.5		2,215,132	*
34		3	-	5	-	18	No		No																			0	0	5	42	52	99.8		1,267,432	*
33		2	-	7	-	17	No		No																				0	3	36	62	100.0		693,689	*
32		2	-	6	-	18	No		No																			0	0	1	29	70	100.0		361,321	*
31		2	-	5	-	19	No		No																				0	1	22	77	100.0		179,423	*
30		1	-	7	-	18	No		No																					0	17	83	Yes		84,120	*
29		1	-	6	-	19	No		No																					0	12	88	Yes		37,023	*
28		1	-	5	-	20	No		No																					0	9	91	Yes		14,980	*
27		1	-	4	-	21	No		No																					0	6	94	Yes		5,783	*
26		0	-	6	-	20	No		No																						4	96	Yes		2,054	*
25		0	-	5	-	21	No		No																						3	97	Yes		617	*
24		0	-	4	-	22	No		No																						1	99	Yes		157	*
21	-23						No		No																							100	Yes		43	*
20		0	-	0	-	26	No		No																						0	100	Yes		289,941

Total:							0.0	%	0.6	%	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	4	5	7	9	10	11	11	10	9	7	5	4	2	0	5.8	%	2,564,537,404

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Win Championship