"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 8/14100.0*Chance wins title100.0*National League100.0*Demotion100.0*Average seed
Chorley 4 Southport 0 +3.3
+3.4
-0.3
+0.5
Stockport County 1 Guiseley 1 +0.4
+0.4
Hereford 2 Leamington 1 -0.3
-0.2
Boston United 2 Nuneaton Town 1 -0.2
-0.2
Altrincham 1 FC United 2 +0.2
+0.2
Telford United 2 Brackley Town 1 -0.2
-0.2
Darlington 1 Blyth Spartans 1 +0.2
+0.2
Bradford Park A 1 Spennymoor Town 0 -0.1
-0.1
Ashton United 0 York City 2 *+0.1
*+0.1
Week of 8/18100.0*Chance wins title100.0*National League100.0*Demotion100.0*Average seed
Chorley 1 Hereford 0 +5.1
+4.9
-0.1
+0.5
Altrincham 0 Boston United 2 -0.9
-0.8
Spennymoor Town 2 Telford United 3 -0.8
-0.7
Bradford Park A 1 Stockport County 1 +0.3
+0.3
Leamington 2 Guiseley 2 +0.3
+0.3
York City 1 Curzon Ashton 1 +0.2
+0.2
Alfreton Town 3 Blyth Spartans 1 +0.1
*+0.1
Ashton United 1 Brackley Town 5 *+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Chester vs Kidderminster H+1.4+0.5-2.3
+1.2+0.4-1.9

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Chorley finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceNationalChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleLeague12345678910111213141516171819202122DemotionCount
111-124YesYes100No132,544*
11026-4-2100.0%100.0%1000No22,916*
10926-3-3100.0100.01000No41,957*
10825-5-2100.0100.01000No74,580*
10725-4-3100.0100.01000No130,641*
10624-6-2100.0100.01000No220,267*
10524-5-3100.0100.01000No361,205*
10424-4-4100.0100.01000No575,135*
10323-6-399.9100.01000No892,190*
10223-5-499.999.91000No1,350,891*
10123-4-599.999.91000No1,998,917*
10022-6-499.999.91000No2,880,743*
9922-5-599.999.91000No4,057,087*
9821-7-499.999.91000No5,583,595*
9721-6-599.999.91000No7,510,458*
9621-5-699.999.91000No9,886,525*
9520-7-599.999.91000No12,731,421*
9420-6-699.899.910000No16,057,139*
9319-8-599.899.810000No19,803,723*
9219-7-699.899.810000No23,965,041*
9119-6-799.799.710000No28,381,240*
9018-8-699.699.610000No32,941,863*
8918-7-799.499.59910No37,460,131*
8818-6-899.199.299100No41,777,341*
8717-8-798.798.999100No45,687,712*
8617-7-898.098.498200No48,987,229*
8516-9-797.197.697300No51,508,152*
8416-8-895.896.596400No53,105,811*
8316-7-994.195.194600No53,745,124*
8215-9-891.793.092800No53,319,450*
8115-8-988.490.4881100No51,904,688*
8015-7-1084.286.98415100No49,559,008*
7914-9-978.982.47920100No46,442,334*
7814-8-1072.477.07225200No42,666,796*
7713-10-964.670.565314000No38,465,868*
7613-9-1055.763.1563771000No34,013,390*
7513-8-1146.055.04641111000No29,503,964*
7412-10-1036.046.63644173000No25,116,153*
7312-9-1126.338.626442461000No20,945,233*
7212-8-1217.831.5184030102000No17,135,448*
7111-10-1110.925.71133351741000No13,753,492*
7011-9-125.921.56253624820000No10,819,405*
6911-8-132.718.931632301541000No8,335,270*
6810-10-121.117.519243223920000No6,300,833*
6710-9-130.316.7041529291661000No4,661,148*
6610-8-140.116.10182130241231000No3,376,771*
659-10-130.014.800312242920920000No2,396,603*
649-9-140.012.500151526271762000No1,666,622*
639-8-150.09.1000271827251451000No1,131,619*
628-10-14No5.3000292028231241000No755,043*
618-9-15No2.4001311222822103000No490,999*
607-11-14No0.800141224282092000No311,619*
597-10-15No0.200151425271872000No194,165*
587-9-16No0.00016162627166100No118,002*
576-11-15No0.000271827261451000No69,606*
566-10-16NoNo0028202824124000No40,502*
556-9-17NoNo0031023292210200No22,418*
546-8-18NoNo00141225301971000.0%12,394*
535-10-17NoNo016162728165100.06,740*
525-9-18NoNo02921292411200.33,466*
514-11-17NoNo002122533207101.01,731*
504-10-18NoNo1619283013403.7790*
494-9-19NoNo02921322212113.3420*
484-8-20NoNo515312918219.9211*
473-10-19NoNo272536226129.485*
463-9-20NoNo51426361954.842*
453-8-21NoNo1030402060.010*
443-7-22NoNo40402060.05*
433-6-23NoNo100Yes1
412-7-23NoNo100Yes1
280-0-32NoNo0199Yes109,161
Total:80.1%83.4%8012421000000000000000000.0%965,523,084

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship