Points
Chance Will Win Championship

Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
Chance will win titlePremier LeagueChance will finish season at seedDemotion
SaturdayPGW-D-LGD%Change%Change123456789101112131415161718192021222324Avg.Change%ChangeRPIStrengthTuesday
LeedsTMillwall 1-1154-3-01024.6%+1.650.7%+2.325171310865432221111000000004.4+0.240.1%-0.02.537PrestonLeeds
MiddlesbroughLNorwich 0-1144-2-1621.8-4.647.5-4.722161310865433221111100000004.7-0.400.1+0.13.537Middlesbrough
BrentfordWWigan 2-0144-2-1814.0+6.236.5+11.514131210976544332211111000005.8+1.660.3-0.44.525at IpswichBrentford
Bristol CityWSheffield Utd 1-0144-2-1611.9+4.633.2+9.112121110987654332221111000006.2+1.400.4-0.41.515at West BromBristol City
West Brom113-2-265.4-0.119.9-0.05788877766554433222111008.4-0.041.3+0.212.499Bristol CityWest Brom
Sheffield UtdLBristol City 0-1124-0-334.9-2.018.7-4.45678877766554433222111008.6-0.831.4+0.65.484Sheffield Utd
SwanseaTNottingham 0-0123-3-124.3-0.717.5-1.44677777766554433322111108.9-0.281.6+0.36.489at StokeSwansea
DerbyLRotherham 0-1124-0-313.2-1.714.2-4.33566777766655444332211109.7-1.032.2+0.918.468BlackburnDerby
WiganLBrentford 0-2103-1-311.9-1.69.6-4.723455666666655544433221111.2-1.474.1+1.99.468Hull CityWigan
Sheffield WedTStoke 2-2113-2-201.6-0.58.5-1.523345556666665554443322111.7-0.584.8+1.213.459Sheffield Wed
Aston Villaat Blackburn912-3-101.5-0.08.4+0.023345556666665554443322111.8-0.085.1+0.78.457RotherhamAston Villa
BoltonLQPR 1-2113-2-2-11.3-1.47.3-4.912344555666666555444332112.1-1.835.6+3.014.449Bolton
BlackburnAston Villa912-3-1-11.1-0.06.7-0.012334455566666555544332112.5-0.106.6+0.87.447at DerbyBlackburn
NottinghamTSwansea 0-081-5-101.0-0.06.1+0.112234455566666655554432212.8+0.057.3+0.410.459Nottingham
NorwichWMiddlesbrough 1-082-2-3-20.5+0.23.6+1.401122334455566666666554314.4+1.3111.6-4.719.443Norwich
MillwallTLeeds 1-161-3-3-20.2-0.11.9-0.300111223344455666777776616.1-0.4118.7+2.611.436Millwall
RotherhamWDerby 1-093-0-4-50.2+0.11.8+0.600111223334455666777777616.4+0.9620.2-5.115.408at Aston VillaRotherham
StokeTSheffield Wed 2-261-3-3-40.2+0.01.8+0.100111223334455666777777616.4+0.0820.2+0.316.427SwanseaStoke
Hull CityWIpswich 2-072-1-4-30.2+0.11.8+0.900111223334455666777777616.4+1.4620.2-8.522.431at WiganHull City
ReadingWPreston 3-251-2-4-30.1+0.11.4+0.900111122333445566777888716.9+1.8623.4-12.921.431Reading
Birmingham50-5-2-20.1-0.01.2-0.000011122233445566778899917.4-0.2226.6+2.520.429Birmingham
QPRWBolton 2-172-1-4-90.1+0.00.8+0.400001111222334456678910111218.3+1.2033.1-10.017.384QPR
PrestonLReading 2-351-2-4-50.1-0.10.6-0.500001111222334455678910121418.7-1.3736.3+11.123.413at LeedsPreston
IpswichLHull City 0-230-3-4-60.0-0.00.3-0.400000011111223344567911152220.0-1.5848.7+15.624.397BrentfordIpswich

Big Games

Who should we root for?   Explain

Week of 9/14
Norwich 1 Middlesbrough 0
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Premier League100.0*Demotion100.0*Average seed
Leeds+1.1
+0.7
Middlesbrough-4.4
-5.2
-0.5
Brentford+0.4
+0.5
Bristol City+0.4
+0.4
West Brom+0.4
+0.4
Sheffield Utd+0.4
+0.4
Swansea+0.3
+0.4
Derby+0.3
+0.3
Wigan+0.2
+0.3
Norwich+0.2
+0.9
-4.2
+1.0
Rotherham+0.4
Stoke+0.3
Hull City+0.4
Reading+0.5
Birmingham+0.4
QPR+0.5
Preston+0.4
Ipswich+0.4
Bristol City 1 Sheffield Utd 0
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Premier League100.0*Demotion100.0*Average seed
Bristol City+1.8
+3.9
-0.3
+0.7
Sheffield Utd-1.5
-3.2
+0.2
-0.6
Brentford 2 Wigan 0
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Premier League100.0*Demotion100.0*Average seed
Leeds-0.2
-0.2
Brentford+1.8
+3.8
-0.3
+0.7
Wigan-0.9
-2.4
+0.5
-0.6
Rotherham 1 Derby 0
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Premier League100.0*Demotion100.0*Average seed
Leeds+0.3
+0.4
Middlesbrough+0.3
+0.4
Brentford+0.2
Bristol City+0.2
Sheffield Utd+0.2
Derby-1.3
-3.3
+0.5
-0.7
Norwich+0.3
Millwall+0.4
Rotherham+0.5
-5.4
+0.9
Stoke+0.4
Hull City+0.5
Reading+0.5
Birmingham+0.4
QPR+0.6
Preston+0.4
Ipswich+0.5
Bolton 1 QPR 2
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Premier League100.0*Demotion100.0*Average seed
Middlesbrough+0.2
+0.4
Bolton-1.2
-3.8
+1.8
-1.3
Norwich+0.6
Millwall+0.6
Rotherham+0.8
Stoke+0.7
Hull City+0.8
Reading+0.9
Birmingham+0.7
QPR+0.4
-10.1
+1.1
Preston+0.8
Ipswich+0.9
Swansea 0 Nottingham 0
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Premier League100.0*Demotion100.0*Average seed
Swansea-1.1
-2.6
+0.3
-0.5
Nottingham+0.1
-0.4
+0.1
Millwall 1 Leeds 1
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Premier League100.0*Demotion100.0*Average seed
Leeds-0.9
-0.8
-0.0
Middlesbrough+0.3
+0.2
Brentford+0.1
+0.1
Bristol City+0.1
+0.1
Sheffield Utd+0.1
Millwall-0.4
+1.3
-0.3
Reading-0.1
Sheffield Wed 2 Stoke 2
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Premier League100.0*Demotion100.0*Average seed
Sheffield Wed-0.5
-1.7
+0.7
-0.6
Stoke-0.8
+0.1
Birmingham 1 West Brom 1
Fri100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Premier League100.0*Demotion100.0*Average seed
Leeds+0.1
Middlesbrough+0.1
West Brom-0.3
-0.6
-0.1
-0.1
Rotherham-0.2
Hull City-0.2
Reading-0.2
Birmingham-0.3
+1.9
-0.4
QPR-0.2
Preston-0.2
Ipswich-0.2
Preston 2 Reading 3
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Premier League100.0*Demotion100.0*Average seed
Reading+0.5
-9.7
+1.2
Preston-0.5
+8.1
-1.1
Hull City 2 Ipswich 0
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Premier League100.0*Demotion100.0*Average seed
Hull City+0.3
-5.2
+0.7
Ipswich-0.2
+4.4
-0.6
Leeds vs PrestonIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Tue100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Premier League100.0*Demotion100.0*Average seed
Leeds28.021.218.1
55.046.642.3
0.10.10.3
4.04.85.2
Preston0.0*0.00.2
0.5*0.61.2
39.735.026.6
19.118.617.4
Middlesbrough vs BoltonHomeDrawAway
Wed100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Premier League100.0*Demotion100.0*Average seed
Middlesbrough25.118.715.8
52.043.639.1
0.10.20.3
4.25.15.6
Bolton0.91.32.4
5.97.611.3
6.65.13.0
12.712.010.6
Ipswich vs BrentfordHomeDrawAway
Tue100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Premier League100.0*Demotion100.0*Average seed
Brentford10.813.018.2
31.235.243.1
0.50.30.1
6.56.05.0
Ipswich0.50.20.2
41.250.755.6
19.220.220.7
West Brom vs Bristol CityHomeDrawAway
Tue100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Premier League100.0*Demotion100.0*Average seed
Bristol City9.6*11.816.9
29.133.541.7
0.50.30.2
6.86.25.2
West Brom6.94.33.1
23.617.514.3
0.81.62.1
7.78.99.6
Stoke vs SwanseaHomeDrawAway
Tue100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Premier League100.0*Demotion100.0*Average seed
Swansea3.14.16.4
14.316.922.7
2.21.50.8
9.79.07.7
Stoke0.30.10.1
2.51.41.0
15.522.026.0
15.516.817.4
Sheffield Utd vs BirminghamHomeDrawAway
Wed100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Premier League100.0*Demotion100.0*Average seed
Sheffield Utd6.13.83.0
21.916.213.7
0.91.72.5
7.99.29.9
Birmingham0.10.10.3
0.8*1.12.0
30.025.818.6
18.017.316.1
Derby vs BlackburnHomeDrawAway
Tue100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Premier League100.0*Demotion100.0*Average seed
Derby4.12.51.8
16.912.09.8
1.42.73.6
9.010.311.1
Blackburn0.8*1.12.0
5.46.810.1
7.96.23.7
13.212.411.0
Blackburn vs Aston VillaHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Premier League100.0*Demotion100.0*Average seed
Aston Villa1.11.52.6
6.7*8.412.1
6.34.82.8
12.511.710.3
Blackburn1.50.80.6
8.45.54.3
4.77.79.7
11.713.113.8
Nottingham vs Sheffield WedHomeDrawAway
Wed100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Premier League100.0*Demotion100.0*Average seed
Sheffield Wed1.11.52.6
6.8*8.512.3
5.94.52.5
12.411.610.2
Nottingham1.30.70.5
7.64.93.8
5.38.410.7
12.013.414.2
Wigan vs Hull CityHomeDrawAway
Tue100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Premier League100.0*Demotion100.0*Average seed
Wigan2.41.41.0
11.68.06.4
2.84.96.5
10.411.812.6
Hull City0.1*0.20.4
1.3*1.83.1
23.019.313.3
17.016.214.9
Aston Villa vs RotherhamHomeDrawAway
Tue100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Premier League100.0*Demotion100.0*Average seed
Aston Villa2.01.10.8
10.06.85.5
3.76.18.1
11.012.413.2
Rotherham0.1*0.20.4
1.4*1.83.1
23.019.113.1
16.916.214.9
Reading vs NorwichHomeDrawAway
Wed100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Premier League100.0*Demotion100.0*Average seed
Norwich0.30.40.8
2.73.55.6
14.011.06.9
15.114.413.0
Reading0.20.10.1
1.91.10.8
18.826.230.8
16.117.418.1
QPR vs MillwallHomeDrawAway
Wed100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Premier League100.0*Demotion100.0*Average seed
Millwall0.10.20.4
1.31.83.0
22.718.612.5
16.916.214.8
QPR1.10.60.4
26.835.641.0
17.518.719.3
Week of 9/21
Middlesbrough vs SwanseaIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Premier League100.0*Demotion100.0*Average seed
Middlesbrough25.318.815.4
52.243.638.7
0.10.20.3
4.25.15.6
Swansea3.24.57.4
14.818.024.5
2.01.40.7
9.58.87.5
Leeds vs BirminghamHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Premier League100.0*Demotion100.0*Average seed
Leeds28.121.418.3
55.146.842.5
0.00.10.3
3.94.75.2
Birmingham0.1*0.10.3
0.8*1.22.1
29.725.618.5
17.917.316.0
Derby vs BrentfordHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Premier League100.0*Demotion100.0*Average seed
Brentford11.113.618.9
31.736.144.2
0.40.30.1
6.45.94.9
Derby4.42.61.8
17.712.610.1
1.42.53.3
8.810.110.9
Wigan vs Bristol CityHomeDrawAway
Fri100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Premier League100.0*Demotion100.0*Average seed
Bristol City9.511.616.5
29.0*33.141.1
0.50.40.2
6.86.25.2
Wigan2.51.41.0
12.18.26.5
2.74.66.0
10.311.712.4
West Brom vs MillwallHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Premier League100.0*Demotion100.0*Average seed
West Brom6.64.23.3
23.117.214.6
0.81.62.3
7.79.09.7
Millwall0.10.20.4
1.4*2.03.3
21.418.012.3
16.716.014.6
Sheffield Utd vs PrestonHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Premier League100.0*Demotion100.0*Average seed
Sheffield Utd6.03.83.0
21.716.213.6
0.91.82.6
8.09.29.9
Preston0.4*0.61.2
40.135.326.8
19.218.617.4
Aston Villa vs Sheffield WedHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Premier League100.0*Demotion100.0*Average seed
Sheffield Wed1.11.52.6
6.8*8.512.3
5.94.52.6
12.411.610.2
Aston Villa2.01.20.8
10.37.05.5
3.66.07.7
10.912.313.1
Ipswich vs BoltonHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Premier League100.0*Demotion100.0*Average seed
Bolton0.81.12.0
5.67.010.3
7.25.43.1
13.012.210.8
Ipswich0.40.20.1
42.051.756.8
19.320.320.8
Stoke vs BlackburnHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Premier League100.0*Demotion100.0*Average seed
Blackburn0.81.11.9
5.36.69.8
8.26.33.7
13.312.511.1
Stoke0.30.10.1
2.41.41.0
16.022.726.7
15.616.917.5
Nottingham vs RotherhamHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Premier League100.0*Demotion100.0*Average seed
Nottingham1.30.70.5
7.54.93.9
5.28.511.0
12.013.414.2
Rotherham0.10.20.4
1.3*1.83.0
23.219.413.3
17.016.314.9
QPR vs NorwichHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Premier League100.0*Demotion100.0*Average seed
Norwich0.30.40.8
2.63.35.3
14.611.47.2
15.214.513.1
QPR1.10.60.4
26.835.640.8
17.518.719.3
Reading vs Hull CityHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Premier League100.0*Demotion100.0*Average seed
Hull City0.10.20.4
1.31.72.9
23.619.313.2
17.016.315.0
Reading0.20.10.1
1.91.10.8
18.826.331.1
16.217.418.1

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Thank you kevinyoung90 for adding this league.