Brackley Town Title Chances 2018-2019 50/50

Did not play, title odds down 0.3 to 5.6%

26 points 7-5-4

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 10/13	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	National League	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Guiseley 2 Brackley Town 1	-1.5		-2.5		+1.7		-1.0
Telford United 1 Chorley 1	+0.2		+0.2
Bradford Park A 1 Kidderminster H 2	-0.1
Spennymoor Town 5 Ashton United 0	-0.1				-0.1
Southport 1 York City 2	-0.1		-0.1		-0.1
Boston United 4 Blyth Spartans 0			-0.1		*-0.1
FC United 1 Darlington 2					*-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Brackley Town finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance		National		Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	wins title		League		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	Demotion		Count

92	-104						Yes		Yes		100																						No		95,322	*
91		21	-	2	-	3	99.9	%	99.9	%	100	0																					No		3,298	*
90		20	-	4	-	2	99.9		99.9		100	0																					No		6,352	*
89		20	-	3	-	3	99.9		99.9		100	0																					No		12,637	*
88		19	-	5	-	2	99.8		99.8		100	0																					No		23,367	*
87		19	-	4	-	3	99.6		99.7		100	0																					No		42,438	*
86		19	-	3	-	4	99.5		99.6		99	1	0																				No		75,420	*
85		18	-	5	-	3	99.2		99.3		99	1																					No		129,232	*
84		18	-	4	-	4	98.7		98.9		99	1	0																				No		215,737	*
83		18	-	3	-	5	97.9		98.2		98	2	0																				No		351,323	*
82		17	-	5	-	4	96.8		97.3		97	3	0	0																			No		555,818	*
81		17	-	4	-	5	95.1		95.9		95	5	0	0																			No		859,386	*
80		16	-	6	-	4	92.8		94.0		93	7	0	0																			No		1,293,502	*
79		16	-	5	-	5	89.5		91.3		90	10	0	0																			No		1,909,820	*
78		16	-	4	-	6	85.2		87.7		85	14	1	0	0																		No		2,749,934	*
77		15	-	6	-	5	79.5		82.9		79	19	1	0	0																		No		3,862,427	*
76		15	-	5	-	6	72.4		77.0		72	25	3	0	0	0																	No		5,308,231	*
75		15	-	4	-	7	63.8		69.8		64	31	5	0	0	0																	No		7,144,635	*
74		14	-	6	-	6	53.9		61.6		54	37	9	1	0	0																	No		9,396,224	*
73		14	-	5	-	7	43.4		52.8		43	41	14	2	0	0	0																No		12,104,907	*
72		13	-	7	-	6	32.7		43.9		33	43	20	4	0	0	0																No		15,252,657	*
71		13	-	6	-	7	22.7		35.6		23	41	27	8	1	0	0	0															No		18,810,245	*
70		13	-	5	-	8	14.3		28.6		14	36	33	14	3	0	0	0	0														No		22,701,128	*
69		12	-	7	-	7	8.0		23.3		8	28	35	21	7	1	0	0	0														No		26,845,959	*
68		12	-	6	-	8	3.8		19.8		4	18	33	28	13	3	0	0	0	0													No		31,064,517	*
67		12	-	5	-	9	1.5		17.9		2	10	26	32	21	8	2	0	0	0	0												No		35,217,506	*
66		11	-	7	-	8	0.5		16.9		0	5	17	30	28	15	5	1	0	0	0												No		39,100,771	*
65		11	-	6	-	9	0.1		16.2		0	2	8	22	30	24	11	3	0	0	0	0											No		42,485,638	*
64		11	-	5	-	10	0.0		15.0		0	0	3	12	25	29	20	8	2	0	0	0	0										No		45,200,791	*
63		10	-	7	-	9	0.0		12.6		0	0	1	5	15	27	28	17	6	1	0	0	0	0									No		47,107,757	*
62		10	-	6	-	10	0.0		9.0		0	0	0	1	7	18	28	26	14	5	1	0	0	0	0								No		48,066,522	*
61		10	-	5	-	11	No		4.9			0	0	0	2	8	20	28	24	13	4	1	0	0	0	0							No		47,985,554	*
60		9	-	7	-	10	No		2.0			0	0	0	0	2	9	21	28	23	12	4	1	0	0	0	0						No		46,903,945	*
59		9	-	6	-	11	No		0.5				0	0	0	0	3	10	22	28	22	11	3	1	0	0	0	0					No		44,837,335	*
58		8	-	8	-	10	No		0.1					0	0	0	0	3	11	22	28	22	10	3	0	0	0	0					No		41,943,501	*
57		8	-	7	-	11	No		0.0						0	0	0	1	3	11	23	28	21	10	3	0	0	0	0				No		38,382,901	*
56		8	-	6	-	12	No		0.0							0	0	0	1	4	12	23	28	21	9	2	0	0	0	0			0.0	%	34,330,423	*
55		7	-	8	-	11	No		0.0								0	0	0	1	4	12	24	28	20	9	2	0	0	0	0		0.0		29,999,861	*
54		7	-	7	-	12	No		No								0	0	0	0	1	4	13	25	28	19	8	2	0	0	0		0.0		25,629,668	*
53		7	-	6	-	13	No		No									0	0	0	0	1	5	15	26	27	17	6	1	0	0	0	0.1		21,371,897	*
52		6	-	8	-	12	No		No											0	0	0	1	6	17	28	27	15	5	1	0	0	0.9		17,388,647	*
51		6	-	7	-	13	No		No												0	0	0	2	8	20	29	25	12	3	0	0	3.5		13,810,042	*
50		6	-	6	-	14	No		No												0	0	0	0	3	11	24	30	22	9	2	0	10.2		10,689,625	*
49		5	-	8	-	13	No		No													0	0	0	1	4	15	28	30	17	5	0	22.2		8,055,958	*
48		5	-	7	-	14	No		No														0	0	0	1	7	20	32	27	10	1	38.7		5,912,649	*
47		5	-	6	-	15	No		No														0	0	0	0	3	12	28	34	19	4	56.6		4,215,655	*
46		4	-	8	-	14	No		No															0	0	0	1	6	21	36	29	8	72.5		2,924,065	*
45		4	-	7	-	15	No		No																0	0	0	3	13	33	37	15	84.3		1,967,452	*
44		4	-	6	-	16	No		No																	0	0	1	7	26	42	24	92.0		1,283,209	*
43		4	-	5	-	17	No		No																0		0	0	3	19	44	34	96.3		808,385	*
42		3	-	7	-	16	No		No																		0	0	2	12	41	45	98.4		493,116	*
41		3	-	6	-	17	No		No																		0	0	1	7	36	56	99.4		288,225	*
40		3	-	5	-	18	No		No																		0	0	0	4	30	66	99.8		163,518	*
39		2	-	7	-	17	No		No																			0	0	2	23	74	99.9		88,523	*
38		2	-	6	-	18	No		No																			0	0	1	18	81	100.0		45,700	*
37		2	-	5	-	19	No		No																				0	1	12	87	100.0		22,917	*
36		1	-	7	-	18	No		No																					0	8	91	Yes		10,822	*
35		1	-	6	-	19	No		No																					0	6	94	Yes		4,749	*
34		1	-	5	-	20	No		No																					0	5	95	Yes		1,984	*
33		1	-	4	-	21	No		No																						2	98	Yes		792	*
32		0	-	6	-	20	No		No																						2	98	Yes		225	*
31		0	-	5	-	21	No		No																						3	98	Yes		80	*
28	-30						No		No																							100	Yes		39	*
26		0	-	0	-	26	No		No																						0	100	Yes		92,441

Total:							5.6	%	12.8	%	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	1.9	%	817,647,404

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Win Championship