"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/8100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFACL100.0*Championship100.0*Average seed
Arsenal vs West Ham+1.5-1.0-2.0
+4.5-2.7-6.0
-3.8+1.9+5.7
+0.9-0.5-1.3
Chelsea vs Swansea City-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Everton vs Watford-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Newcastle United vs Southampton-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Stoke City vs Liverpool-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.0-0.1-0.0
West Brom vs Manchester City-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Norwich City vs Crystal Palace-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Leicester City vs Sunderland-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.0-0.1*-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/15100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFACL100.0*Championship100.0*Average seed
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal-1.3-0.1+2.9
-3.6*+0.0+7.7
+2.9-0.5-5.6
-0.7+0.1+1.5
Aston Villa vs Manchester United-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Watford vs West Brom-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Manchester City vs Chelsea-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Sunderland vs Norwich City-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Tottenham Hotspur vs Stoke City-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Swansea City vs Newcastle United-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Liverpool vs Bournemouth-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1*-0.0
West Ham vs Leicester City-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Southampton vs Everton-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1*-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Arsenal finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleUEFACL1234567891011121314151617181920ChampionshipCount
87-114YesYes100No75,481*
8626-8-499.9%Yes1000No1,047*
8526-7-5YesYes100No1,979*
8426-6-699.9Yes1000No3,608*
8325-8-599.9Yes1000No6,343*
8225-7-699.9Yes1000No10,876*
8124-9-599.9Yes1000No17,825*
8024-8-699.9Yes1000No29,951*
7924-7-799.8Yes1000No48,208*
7823-9-699.7Yes1000No76,662*
7723-8-799.5Yes991No119,691*
7623-7-899.2Yes9910No183,764*
7522-9-798.7Yes9910No278,549*
7422-8-898.0Yes9820No411,507*
7321-10-796.9Yes97300No596,823*
7221-9-895.3Yes9550No853,131*
7121-8-993.0Yes93700No1,199,645*
7020-10-889.6Yes901000No1,653,873*
6920-9-985.1100.0%8514100No2,246,514*
6820-8-1079.1100.07919200No2,998,953*
6719-10-971.5100.072253000No3,936,763*
6619-9-1062.2100.062326000No5,080,080*
6518-11-951.699.952381010000No6,447,553*
6418-10-1040.199.84042153000No8,044,774*
6318-9-1128.799.229422361000No9,866,381*
6217-11-1018.497.61839301120000No11,921,472*
6117-10-1110.393.710313418510000No14,150,290*
6017-9-124.985.5521332611300000No16,521,008*
5916-11-111.871.3211273120720000No18,971,119*
5816-10-120.551.31517292715510000No21,423,513*
5715-12-110.129.801820292412410000No23,790,875*
5615-11-120.012.90021022292210310000No25,975,024*
5515-10-130.03.80003112328219300000No27,906,902*
5414-12-120.00.700014122328209300000No29,465,716*
5314-11-13No0.100014122328209300000No30,586,565*
5214-10-14No0.000001412232821103000000.0%31,225,132*
5113-12-13No0.000001311222821103000000.031,335,807*
5013-11-14No0.00000131122282210300000.030,894,222*
4913-10-15NoNo0000131022282211300000.029,945,185*
4812-12-14NoNo000013112228221030000.428,524,040*
4712-11-15NoNo0000131123292192002.326,691,790*
4612-10-16NoNo000014132529207108.524,542,901*
4511-12-15NoNo000015162829165021.322,151,731*
4411-11-16NoNo00002720312711239.719,650,270*
4311-10-17NoNo0000311263421559.617,106,073*
4210-12-16NoNo0000151834311176.314,613,507*
4110-11-17NoNo000021029391987.812,260,902*
4010-10-18NoNo0001521433094.410,084,769*
399-12-17NoNo000214414397.78,139,911*
389-11-18NoNo0018365599.16,436,122*
378-13-17NoNo0004306699.74,997,798*
368-12-18NoNo0002237599.93,799,767*
358-11-19NoNo0011782100.02,829,820*
347-13-18NoNo0001188100.02,059,972*
337-12-19NoNo00892100.01,467,559*
327-11-20NoNo00595100.01,025,677*
317-10-21NoNo00397100.0700,089*
306-12-20NoNo0298Yes466,330*
296-11-21NoNo0199Yes303,713*
286-10-22NoNo0199Yes192,783*
275-12-21NoNo0100Yes119,287*
265-11-22NoNo0100Yes71,919*
255-10-23NoNo0100Yes42,000*
244-12-22NoNo0100Yes24,343*
234-11-23NoNo0100Yes13,506*
224-10-24NoNo0100Yes7,081*
213-12-23NoNo0100Yes3,916*
0-20NoNo100Yes77,773*
Total:5.0%20.0%5555555555555555555515.0%596,708,160

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship