Houston Texans Playoff Chances 5 50/50

Plays Cleveland, average seed down 0.05 to 3.6
10-4-0   .714

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday, 5/1100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
New England 34 Miami 13 -0.2
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Cincinnati vs Denver+0.4*+1.4-0.4
+0.2-0.2-0.2
Houston vs Cleveland+0.4*-0.4-0.4
+0.3-0.3-0.3
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday, 5/3100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Cleveland vs Denver-0.4*-0.6+0.4
+0.1-0.3-0.1
Houston vs LA Rams+0.4*-0.8-0.4
+0.3-0.3-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Houston finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
122-0-0In25750640,328
11.51-0-1In2674984
111-1-0In25751,279,853
10-10.5In100641,571*
Total:In631622,562,736

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Houston finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-L-TWin SBByeNY JetsNew EnglandPittsburghKansas CityTennesseeCincinnati
122-0-07.8%2500521752
11.51-0-16.1373717522
111-1-06.3373717512
10.50-1-16.05050
100-2-06.35050
Total:6.7%6.231.231.321.36.91.81.3
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs