Cincinnati Bengals Playoff Chances 5 50/50

Plays Denver, playoff odds up 0.04 to 3.5%
8-6-0   .571

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday, 5/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
New England 34 Miami 13 +0.2
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Cincinnati vs Denver+3.5+2.9Out
+0.2*+0.1No
+0.6+0.5-0.6
Pittsburgh vs DetroitOut+2.1+3.5
No*+0.4+0.2
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Tennessee vs Indianapolis-1.2+2.0+1.2
-0.1*+0.1+0.1
-0.2+0.2+0.2
Buffalo vs Kansas City+1.2*+1.3-1.2
+0.1*-0.1-0.1
+0.2+0.2-0.2
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday, 5/3100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Super Bowl100.0*Average seed
Baltimore vs Pittsburgh+3.5+3.0Out
+0.2*-0.1No
+0.1+0.1-0.1
Chicago vs CincinnatiOut+2.4+3.5
No+0.5+0.2
-0.5+0.5+0.5
Kansas City vs LA Chargers-1.2+2.5+1.2
-0.1*+0.1+0.1
-0.2+0.2+0.2
Seattle vs Tennessee+1.2*+0.1-1.2
+0.1*-0.1-0.1
+0.1+0.1-0.1
Buffalo vs Miami+0.1+0.1-0.1
Jacksonville vs Indianapolis+0.0-0.1-0.0
Minnesota vs Washington+0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Cincinnati finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
102-0-014.1%1452305639,860
9.51-0-112.513523051,008
91-1-0Out945461,280,852
8.50-1-1Out638561,041
80-2-0Out5050639,975
Total:3.5%4183037122,562,736

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Cincinnati finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-L-TWin SBClevelandDenverNY JetsHouston
102-0-00.9%275
9.51-0-11.01704
8-9No
Total:0.2%0.41.80.01.3
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday, 5/1100.0*Lottery seed
New England 34 Miami 13 -0.3
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Cincinnati vs Denver-1.2-0.4+1.2
Tennessee vs Indianapolis+0.2-0.2-0.2
LA Rams vs Seattle-0.2*+0.1+0.2
Houston vs Cleveland+0.2+0.0-0.2
Buffalo vs Kansas City-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Green Bay vs San Francisco-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Baltimore vs Oakland-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Arizona vs Jacksonville+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Dallas vs LA Chargers+0.1-0.1-0.1
NY Giants vs Atlanta-0.1-0.1+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday, 5/3100.0*Lottery seed
Chicago vs Cincinnati+1.2-0.2-1.2
Kansas City vs LA Chargers+0.2-0.0-0.2
Atlanta vs New Orleans+0.2*-0.1-0.2
Dallas vs NY Giants-0.1*+0.2+0.1
Baltimore vs Pittsburgh-0.1-0.1+0.1
Buffalo vs Miami-0.1-0.1+0.1
Minnesota vs Washington-0.1-0.1+0.1
Cleveland vs Denver-0.1*-0.0+0.1
NY Jets vs New England+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Jacksonville vs Indianapolis-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Philadelphia vs Oakland+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Seattle vs Tennessee-0.0-0.1+0.0
Detroit vs Green Bay-0.0*+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
102-0-0510562550
9.51-0-12112436253
91-1-01144032101
8.50-1-18414110
80-2-005254524
Total:121513211811126