Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
Chance will make playoffsWorld Cup BirthChance will finish regular season at seedEliminated
PGW-D-LGD%Change%Change12345678910Avg.Change%ChangeRPI
Uruguay196-1-21472.7%+8.378.5%+8.0342316128521002.7+0.430.2%-0.92Uruguay
Brazil185-3-11264.4+10.171.3+10.22522181410631003.0+0.560.4-1.71Brazil
Ecuador165-1-3444.5+9.552.8+10.912151716151174104.0+0.691.5-4.24Ecuador
Argentina164-4-1344.2-8.052.5-6.712151716151284104.0-0.281.5-0.83Argentina
Colombia165-1-3344.3+8.852.5+10.212151716151284104.0+0.661.5-4.05Colombia
Paraguay123-3-3-314.7-11.920.1-12.82581114181814825.9-0.6710.2+1.47Paraguay
Chile113-2-4-210.5-10.914.8-12.22369121720171136.3-0.7114.5+2.76Chile
Peru82-2-5-72.9-2.04.6-2.40123610172425117.6-0.0336.7-4.48Peru
Bolivia72-1-6-91.7-3.52.8-4.6001248142331168.0-0.4847.1+7.59Bolivia
Venezuela20-2-7-150.1-0.30.1-0.50000013820679.5-0.1786.6+4.410Venezuela

Big Games

Who should we root for?   Explain

Week of 10/6
Paraguay 0 Colombia 1
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*World Cup Birth100.0*Eliminated100.0*Average seed
Uruguay-0.5
-0.4
Brazil-0.7
-0.5
Ecuador-0.6
-0.5
-0.1
Argentina-0.7
-0.5
Colombia+14.0
+14.6
-3.5
+0.8
Paraguay-10.8
-11.9
+4.9
-0.8
Chile-0.5
-0.4
-0.2
Peru-0.1
-0.2
-0.4
Bolivia-0.2
-0.2
-0.4
Venezuela-0.2
Ecuador 3 Chile 0
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*World Cup Birth100.0*Eliminated100.0*Average seed
Uruguay-0.7
-0.5
Brazil-0.8
-0.6
-0.1
Ecuador+13.8
+14.4
-3.7
+0.8
Argentina-0.9
-0.7
-0.1
Colombia-0.7
-0.6
-0.1
Paraguay-0.7
-0.6
-0.2
Chile-9.5
-10.8
+6.1
-0.8
Peru-0.2
-0.2
-0.7
Bolivia-0.2
-0.2
-0.7
Venezuela-0.5
Brazil 5 Bolivia 0
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*World Cup Birth100.0*Eliminated100.0*Average seed
Uruguay-1.7
-1.3
-0.2
-0.1
Brazil+13.7
+13.1
-1.7
+0.7
Ecuador-1.7
-1.5
-0.7
Argentina-1.9
-1.5
-0.4
-0.1
Colombia-1.7
-1.5
-0.7
Paraguay-1.5
-1.3
-1.1
Chile-1.4
-1.2
-1.3
Peru-0.4
-0.5
-3.3
+0.0
Bolivia-3.3
-4.3
+11.1
-0.6
Venezuela-0.1
-1.7
+0.1
Uruguay 3 Venezuela 0
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*World Cup Birth100.0*Eliminated100.0*Average seed
Uruguay+12.3
+11.2
-0.9
+0.6
Brazil-2.1
-1.7
-0.2
-0.1
Ecuador-1.9
-1.6
-0.5
-0.1
Argentina-2.1
-1.7
-0.2
-0.1
Colombia-1.9
-1.7
-0.5
-0.1
Paraguay-1.7
-1.6
-0.7
-0.1
Chile-1.5
-1.4
-0.9
Peru-0.5
-0.5
-1.6
Bolivia-0.5
-0.6
-1.7
Venezuela-0.3
-0.5
+7.2
-0.3
Peru 2 Argentina 2
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*World Cup Birth100.0*Eliminated100.0*Average seed
Uruguay+0.7
+0.6
+0.0
Brazil+0.8
+0.7
-0.1
+0.0
Ecuador+0.6
+0.6
-0.2
Argentina-2.6
-2.2
-0.3
-0.1
Colombia+0.7
+0.7
-0.2
Paraguay+0.6
+0.6
-0.2
Chile+0.5
+0.5
-0.3
Peru-1.3
-1.7
+2.4
-0.2
Bolivia+0.2
+0.2
-0.7
+0.0
Venezuela-0.4
+0.0
Colombia vs UruguayIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Tue100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*World Cup Birth100.0*Eliminated100.0*Average seed
Uruguay60.071.985.9
67.778.189.7
0.40.10.0
3.22.72.0
Brazil63.565.164.7
70.471.871.7
Ecuador43.745.444.8
51.753.453.3
Argentina43.545.144.5
51.553.253.0
Colombia60.141.330.3
67.849.939.0
0.41.42.7
3.24.14.7
Paraguay14.415.3*14.7
19.420.520.3
10.3*10.210.0
Chile10.211.0*10.5
14.315.315.1
14.6*14.514.3
Peru2.83.0*2.9
4.34.74.7
36.9*36.736.4
Bolivia1.61.8*1.7
2.73.02.9
47.3*47.146.8
Venezuela86.7*86.686.5
Argentina vs ParaguayHomeDrawAway
Tue100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*World Cup Birth100.0*Eliminated100.0*Average seed
Uruguay71.473.773.3
77.779.378.8
Brazil62.965.565.1
70.372.271.6
Ecuador42.945.745.4
51.553.953.3
1.4*1.51.6
Argentina59.341.631.0
67.550.338.9
0.31.32.8
3.24.14.7
Colombia42.645.445.1
51.353.653.0
1.4*1.51.6
Paraguay6.812.124.4
10.417.231.6
15.610.64.4
6.66.15.1
Chile9.811.010.9
14.115.515.1
13.814.415.1
Peru2.63.13.0
4.34.84.7
35.536.637.9
Bolivia1.61.81.8
2.73.02.9
45.747.048.5
Venezuela85.986.587.3
Bolivia vs EcuadorHomeDrawAway
Tue100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*World Cup Birth100.0*Eliminated100.0*Average seed
Uruguay74.473.370.6
79.979.176.9
0.30.20.1
2.62.62.7
Brazil66.365.161.9
72.871.969.3
0.50.40.3
3.03.03.1
Ecuador32.641.658.5
40.750.266.5
3.01.10.2
4.64.13.3
Argentina46.445.041.6
54.453.250.1
1.91.41.2
3.94.04.1
Colombia46.445.041.6
54.453.250.1
1.91.41.2
3.94.04.1
Paraguay15.815.113.4
21.320.518.5
12.09.88.5
Chile11.410.89.5
15.815.213.6
16.914.012.4
Peru3.23.02.5
5.04.74.1
41.435.832.5
7.77.67.6
Bolivia3.51.00.4
5.61.80.8
33.649.958.7
7.58.28.5
Venezuela88.586.284.9
9.59.49.4
Venezuela vs BrazilHomeDrawAway
Tue100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*World Cup Birth100.0*Eliminated100.0*Average seed
Uruguay74.473.170.7
79.878.877.0
2.62.62.8
Brazil53.162.177.1
61.169.582.6
0.80.30.0
3.63.12.5
Ecuador46.845.042.0
54.753.150.6
1.71.41.3
3.94.04.1
Argentina46.444.741.7
54.452.950.4
1.71.41.3
3.94.04.1
Colombia46.544.741.7
54.452.850.4
1.71.41.4
3.94.04.1
Paraguay16.015.013.3
21.320.318.6
11.29.89.4
Chile11.510.79.4
15.915.013.7
15.814.013.4
Peru3.22.92.5
5.04.64.1
38.936.034.9
Bolivia1.91.81.5
3.12.92.5
49.246.445.5
8.18.08.0
Venezuela0.20.00.0
0.30.00.0
78.989.092.6
9.29.59.7
Chile vs PeruHomeDrawAway
Tue100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*World Cup Birth100.0*Eliminated100.0*Average seed
Uruguay71.973.273.1
77.779.179.0
Brazil63.564.964.9
70.471.971.8
Ecuador43.745.145.0
51.753.553.3
1.31.41.7
Argentina43.444.844.7
51.453.253.1
1.31.41.7
Colombia43.444.844.8
51.553.253.1
1.41.41.7
Paraguay14.315.015.0
19.420.520.4
9.49.911.0
Chile17.48.45.1
23.412.47.9
5.514.223.6
5.66.57.0
Peru0.91.95.5
1.63.28.4
49.738.622.4
8.27.87.0
Bolivia1.61.81.8
2.72.92.9
44.946.449.8
Venezuela85.986.187.6

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Thank you Noah Vinik for adding this league.