"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 5/22100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Série A100.0*Série C100.0*Average seed
Vitória 4 Bragantino 1 +2.0
+5.7
-5.5
+1.1
ABC 1 Luverdense 1 +0.1
+0.3
-0.2
Mogi Mirim 1 Sampaio Corrêa 1 +0.1
+0.2
-0.1
Atlético-GO 0 Botafogo 0 +0.1
+0.2
Paysandu 2 Ceará 1 *+0.1
*+0.1
*+0.1
Paraná 1 Boa Esporte 1 +0.2
-0.2
If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Ceará vs CRB*-0.0+0.2-0.1
Santa Cruz vs ABC+0.1-0.2*+0.0
If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 5/29100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Série A100.0*Série C100.0*Average seed
Botafogo vs Vitória-2.1-0.8+2.8
-5.5-1.8+6.9
+3.8+0.8-4.4
-0.9-0.3+1.1
Vitória vs Criciúma+2.7-0.8-2.0
+6.8-1.9-5.4
-4.5+0.8+3.9
+1.1-0.3-0.9
Náutico vs Ceará-0.3+0.2+0.1
-0.3+0.3+0.1
-0.1*-0.0+0.2
Sampaio Corrêa vs Náutico*+0.0+0.2-0.2
*-0.0+0.3-0.2
Bahia vs Paraná-0.1+0.1*+0.0
-0.2+0.2*-0.0
Paraná vs Botafogo*+0.0+0.1-0.1
*-0.0+0.3-0.2
+0.1-0.1*-0.0
América-MG vs Sampaio Corrêa*+0.0+0.1-0.1
*+0.0+0.2-0.2
Luverdense vs Macaé*+0.0+0.1-0.1
*-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*-0.0
Macaé vs Bahia*-0.0+0.1-0.1
*-0.0+0.2-0.1
Bragantino vs América-MG*-0.1+0.3-0.1
ABC vs Bragantino-0.1+0.2*-0.1
Atlético-GO vs Luverdense-0.1+0.3*-0.1
Criciúma vs Atlético-GO*-0.0+0.2-0.1
Oeste vs Mogi Mirim-0.1+0.1*+0.0
*+0.0-0.2+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Vitória finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceSérieChance will finish season at seedSérie
TPW-L-Ewins titleA1234567891011121314151617181920CCount
82-111YesYes100No1,184*
8123-6-699.5%Yes1000No410*
8022-5-899.8Yes1000No650*
7922-6-799.6Yes1000No987*
7822-7-699.4Yes991No1,569*
7721-6-898.7Yes991No2,314*
7621-7-798.5Yes982No3,405*
7520-6-997.5Yes973No4,877*
7420-7-896.1Yes964No6,915*
7320-8-794.4Yes9460No9,584*
7219-7-992.3Yes9280No13,114*
7119-8-888.2Yes881100No17,732*
7019-9-783.7Yes841510No23,185*
6918-8-977.8Yes782020No30,396*
6818-9-870.1100.0%7026300No38,161*
6718-10-761.4100.06132600No48,726*
6617-9-950.699.9513810100No59,516*
6517-10-839.699.7404215300No72,728*
6416-9-1029.099.3294322610No86,939*
6316-10-919.097.819392911200No102,928*
6216-11-811.094.6113234185100No118,621*
6115-10-105.687.56233425102000No135,401*
6015-11-92.275.12132931186100No152,375*
5915-12-80.757.216203126134100No167,459*
5814-11-100.236.30210243022920000No182,456*
5714-12-90.018.00141426281872000No194,427*
5614-13-80.06.500151627271661000No204,832*
5513-12-10No1.500161727261551000No211,630*
5413-13-9No0.2000271827251451000No215,045*
5312-12-11No0.000281828251451000No215,640*
5212-13-10No0.0000028192725145100No211,592*
5112-14-9NoNo00281928251451000.0%204,649*
5011-13-11NoNo000281928251441000.1194,534*
4911-14-10NoNo000281928251341000.8182,318*
4811-15-9NoNo000292029241231004.0167,666*
4710-14-11NoNo0003102229231020013.0151,666*
4610-15-10NoNo00131224302181030.0134,571*
4510-16-9NoNo0015152829175051.3117,154*
449-15-11NoNo0001720322711271.5100,617*
439-16-10NoNo00311273420585.684,455*
429-17-9NoNo00151835311094.069,588*
418-16-11NoNo0021130391897.856,498*
408-17-10NoNo01623422899.244,562*
398-18-9NoNo00315424099.834,861*
387-17-11NoNo0019385299.926,584*
377-18-10NoNo063163Yes19,607*
367-19-9NoNo0032573100.014,595*
356-18-11NoNo011980Yes10,337*
346-19-10NoNo11387Yes7,298*
336-20-9NoNo0991Yes4,991*
325-19-11NoNo0694Yes3,304*
315-20-10NoNo0496Yes2,218*
305-21-9NoNo298Yes1,300*
295-22-8NoNo298Yes824*
284-21-10NoNo199Yes542*
274-22-9NoNo199Yes291*
264-23-8NoNo199Yes180*
6-25NoNo100Yes712*
Total:6.9%25.9%7766666555555444443313.5%4,170,720

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship