"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 6/18100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Sao Paulo 1 Atletico-MG 2 -1.2
-6.1
+4.7
-1.0
Atletico-PR 1 Sao Paulo 0 -0.9
-5.6
+5.5
-1.0
Coritiba 0 Corinthians 0 +0.2
+0.4
Corinthians 3 Bahia 0 -0.1
*-0.1
-0.3
Cruzeiro 3 Gremio 3 +0.1
+0.2
*-0.1
Gremio 2 Coritiba 0 -0.1
Vitoria 0 Santos 2 -0.3
*-0.1
Chapecoense 0 Botafogo 3 *+0.1
+0.2
Atletico-MG 2 Sport Recife 2 +0.3
-0.2
Fluminense 2 Flamengo 2 +0.2
Palmeiras 1 Atletico-GO 0 -0.2
Avai 0 Fluminense 3 -0.2
*-0.1
Botafogo 3 Vasco da Gama 1 *-0.1
Bahia 2 Palmeiras 4 *+0.1
+0.2
Ponte Preta 1 Cruzeiro 0 -0.1
*+0.1
If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 6/24100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Sao Paulo vs Fluminense+0.7-0.3-0.6
+6.0-1.8-4.9
-7.0+1.6+6.0
+1.1-0.3-1.0
Gremio vs Corinthians-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.1+0.1*-0.0
Santos vs Sport Recife-0.2+0.2+0.1
-0.3-0.2+0.4
Botafogo vs Avai-0.3+0.2+0.2
-0.3-0.2+0.4
Cruzeiro vs Coritiba+0.0+0.2-0.2
+0.2-0.1-0.1
Ponte Preta vs Palmeiras-0.1+0.2-0.1
*-0.0-0.1+0.1
Bahia vs Flamengo+0.0+0.2-0.2
+0.2-0.2-0.1
Vasco da Gama vs Atletico-GO-0.2+0.2+0.1
-0.1-0.2+0.3
Chapecoense vs Atletico-MG-0.2+0.2+0.0
-0.1-0.2+0.2
Atletico-PR vs Vitoria-0.1+0.2+0.0
-0.0-0.2+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Sao Paulo finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-L-Ewins titleLibertadores1234567891011121314151617181920Serie BCount
82-97YesYes100No28,996*
8122-2-599.3%Yes991No888*
8022-3-499.5Yes991No1,708*
7922-4-398.9Yes991No3,119*
7821-3-598.2Yes982No5,686*
7721-4-497.1Yes973No9,885*
7621-5-395.8Yes9640No16,934*
7520-4-594.4Yes9460No28,268*
7420-5-491.7Yes9280No46,330*
7319-4-688.5Yes891100No73,799*
7219-5-584.2Yes841510No115,011*
7119-6-478.8Yes792010No175,834*
7018-5-672.1Yes7225200No262,311*
6918-6-564.1Yes6431400No383,592*
6818-7-454.8Yes5537710No547,913*
6717-6-644.9Yes454212100No769,299*
6617-7-534.6100.0%3544183000No1,057,896*
6516-6-724.9100.02544256100No1,424,921*
6416-7-616.2100.0164032112000No1,880,914*
6316-8-59.4100.093236184100No2,437,693*
6215-7-74.799.8522362692000No3,097,123*
6115-8-61.999.221331321751000No3,858,370*
6015-9-50.697.1162133251130000No4,720,312*
5914-8-70.291.4021227312071000No5,662,251*
5814-9-60.078.90151729281551000No6,671,264*
5714-10-50.058.5001720302512410000No7,707,211*
5613-9-70.034.40002102229231030000No8,741,896*
5513-10-6No14.7000311242921920000No9,729,877*
5412-9-8No4.20001412242920820000No10,635,816*
5312-10-7No0.800014132528198200000.0%11,400,800*
5212-11-6No0.10001414252819720000.011,997,881*
5111-10-8No0.0000015142628187200000.012,390,100*
5011-11-7No0.00001515262817610000.112,557,459*
4911-12-6NoNo0001616272716610001.112,472,187*
4810-11-8NoNo0000161828271541005.212,165,504*
4710-12-7NoNo0000282029251230015.611,633,966*
4610-13-6NoNo000031023312392033.210,911,672*
459-12-8NoNo00014142730185154.410,034,683*
449-13-7NoNo0001619322812273.49,035,986*
439-14-6NoNo000211273421586.77,982,082*
428-13-8NoNo00151835311094.36,914,715*
418-14-7NoNo000021130391897.85,855,145*
408-15-6NoNo0001623432899.34,853,516*
397-14-8NoNo000316423999.83,941,799*
387-15-7NoNo00110395099.93,128,492*
377-16-6NoNo00063361100.02,429,187*
366-15-8NoNo0032671100.01,840,312*
356-16-7NoNo0022078100.01,363,418*
346-17-6NoNo011585Yes984,501*
335-16-8NoNo001089Yes693,064*
325-17-7NoNo00793Yes476,671*
315-18-6NoNo0595Yes318,304*
304-17-8NoNo0397Yes206,222*
294-18-7NoNo0298Yes129,860*
284-19-6NoNo0199Yes79,646*
273-18-8NoNo199Yes46,710*
263-19-7NoNo0100Yes26,862*
253-20-6NoNo0100Yes14,748*
243-21-5NoNo0100Yes7,964*
232-20-7NoNo0100Yes4,189*
222-21-6NoNo0100Yes1,963*
212-22-5NoNo0100Yes807*
10-20NoNo100Yes28,788*
Total:1.3%18.0%1233445555666667777625.7%226,024,320

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship