How are these numbers calculated?

## Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

 Week of 4/17 100.0* Chance in playoffs 100.0* Serie A2 100.0* Average seed Sao Bento 1 Sao Caetano 1 -0.4 +6.5 -0.0 Ferroviaria 1 Guarani 2 +0.4 +3.4 Novorizontino 3 Ferroviaria 1 +0.2 Bragantino 2 Ponte Preta 0 +0.2 Novorizontino 2 Santo Andre 0 -0.3 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Sao Bento vs Inter de Limeira +0.4-0.5-0.6 -15.7+8.3+30.2 +0.0-0.0-0.1 Sao Caetano vs Ponte Preta +0.5+0.3-0.2 +5.2+0.1-1.2 +0.1+0.0-0.0 Novorizontino vs Guarani -0.2+0.2+0.5 Inter de Limeira vs Ituano +7.1+0.8-2.4 Mirassol vs Botafogo -1.1+0.0+3.2 Sao Paulo vs Santo Andre -0.5+0.4+2.0 Guarani vs Palmeiras +0.5+0.2-0.3 Santos vs Bragantino +0.3+0.1-0.1 Novorizontino vs Santos -0.1+0.1+0.3 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Week of 4/25 100.0* Chance in playoffs 100.0* Serie A2 100.0* Average seed Sao Bento vs Novorizontino +1.8-0.2-0.5 -17.3-2.5+6.4 +0.1-0.0-0.0 Ferroviaria vs Santo Andre -0.4+0.2+0.6 -1.0+0.0+2.0 Bragantino vs Ferroviaria +0.2-0.1-0.5 Ponte Preta vs Inter de Limeira -0.2+0.2+0.5 -2.2+1.0+7.3 -0.0+0.0+0.1 Ponte Preta vs Mirassol -0.3+0.1+0.3 -0.0+0.1*+0.0 Botafogo vs Sao Caetano +1.0-2.8+0.6 Sao Caetano vs Ituano +5.1+0.1-1.2 Palmeiras vs Inter de Limeira -1.6+1.6+8.0 Santo Andre vs Guarani +1.4-0.3-1.3 Santos vs Corinthians +0.3+0.1-0.1 Palmeiras vs Mirassol -0.1+0.0+0.1 Ituano vs Sao Paulo +0.1+0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

## What If

Chances based on how well the Sao Bento finish out the regular season.   Explain

 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance in Chance will finish regular season at seed Serie TP W - D - L playoffs 1 2 3 4 A2 Count 17 4 - 0 - 0 15.9 % 16 49 35 No 25,341,558 15 3 - 1 - 0 3.5 4 32 64 No 73,162,384 14 3 - 0 - 1 1.1 1 21 78 0.0 % 131,284,148 13 2 - 2 - 0 0.3 0 12 88 0.0 73,307,560 12 2 - 1 - 1 0.1 0 6 94 0.3 244,914,135 11 2 - 0 - 2 0.0 0 3 97 2.2 191,113,291 1 - 3 - 0 0.0 0 2 98 3.3 30,786,422 10 1 - 2 - 1 Out 1 99 16.7 146,015,008 9 1 - 1 - 2 Out 0 100 42.8 217,570,099 0 - 4 - 0 Out 0 100 39.9 4,649,359 8 1 - 0 - 3 Out 0 100 68.1 102,361,417 0 - 3 - 1 Out 0 100 73.1 28,084,975 5 -7 Out 100 96.2 134,017,500 * Total: 0.6 % 1 7 93 24.5 % 1,402,607,856

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

## Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

## Big Games

 Week of 4/17 100.0* Lottery seed Sao Bento 1 Sao Caetano 1 +0.4 Ferroviaria 1 Guarani 2 +0.1 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Sao Bento vs Inter de Limeira -0.6+0.4+1.0 Mirassol vs Botafogo -0.0-0.0+0.1 Santos vs Bragantino +0.1+0.0-0.0 Novorizontino vs Santos -0.0-0.0+0.1 Inter de Limeira vs Ituano +0.1-0.0-0.0 Sao Caetano vs Ponte Preta +0.1-0.0-0.0 Sao Paulo vs Santo Andre -0.0+0.0+0.1 Novorizontino vs Guarani -0.0+0.0+0.1 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Week of 4/25 100.0* Lottery seed Sao Bento vs Novorizontino -1.0-0.0+0.3 Palmeiras vs Inter de Limeira -0.0+0.0+0.2 Botafogo vs Sao Caetano +0.0-0.1+0.0 Santos vs Corinthians +0.1-0.0-0.0 Sao Caetano vs Ituano +0.1-0.0-0.0 Ponte Preta vs Inter de Limeira -0.0-0.0+0.1

## What If

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance will finish season at seed TP W - D - L 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 4 - 0 - 0 0 13 3 0 4 29 40 11 0 15 3 - 1 - 0 1 2 0 0 8 46 41 1 0 14 3 - 0 - 1 0 1 0 0 3 32 59 5 0 0 13 2 - 2 - 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 61 23 1 0 12 2 - 1 - 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 42 46 7 0 0 11 2 - 0 - 2 0 0 0 1 19 57 21 2 0 1 - 3 - 0 0 0 0 0 16 54 26 3 0 10 1 - 2 - 1 0 2 33 49 16 0 9 1 - 1 - 2 0 0 11 46 39 4 0 - 4 - 0 0 12 48 37 3 8 1 - 0 - 3 0 3 29 57 11 0 - 3 - 1 2 25 60 13 7 0 - 2 - 2 0 7 62 30 6 0 - 1 - 3 1 45 54 5 0 - 0 - 4 30 70 Total: 0 0 0 0 0 1 8 22 24 20 19 6