How are these numbers calculated?

## Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

 Week of 4/17 100.0* Chance in playoffs 100.0* Serie A2 100.0* Average seed Ferroviaria 1 Guarani 2 +14.8 +0.1 +0.2 Novorizontino 3 Ferroviaria 1 +9.1 +0.1 Bragantino 2 Ponte Preta 0 -8.8 +0.1 -0.1 Sao Bento 1 Sao Caetano 1 +0.2 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Sao Caetano vs Ponte Preta -18.0-11.2+8.3 +1.8+0.2-0.5 -0.3-0.1+0.1 Sao Bento vs Inter de Limeira -0.2+0.2+0.2 +0.0-0.1-0.0 Sao Paulo vs Santo Andre -0.0+0.0+0.2 -0.0+0.0+0.1 Inter de Limeira vs Ituano +0.2+0.0-0.1 Mirassol vs Botafogo -0.1+0.0+0.2 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Week of 4/25 100.0* Chance in playoffs 100.0* Serie A2 100.0* Average seed Ponte Preta vs Mirassol +15.0-5.4-13.0 -0.5-0.1+0.6 +0.2-0.1-0.2 Ferroviaria vs Santo Andre -11.5+7.5+15.8 -0.0+0.0+0.1 -0.1+0.1+0.2 Ponte Preta vs Inter de Limeira +8.7-10.9-17.8 -0.5+0.1+1.8 +0.1-0.1-0.3 Bragantino vs Ferroviaria +7.6-0.6-17.9 +0.1-0.0-0.2 Sao Bento vs Novorizontino -0.7+0.1+0.2 +0.2+0.0-0.1 -0.1+0.0+0.0 Ituano vs Sao Paulo +0.1+0.0-0.0 Santo Andre vs Guarani +0.1-0.0-0.1 Sao Caetano vs Ituano +0.2+0.0-0.0 Palmeiras vs Inter de Limeira -0.0+0.0+0.2 Botafogo vs Sao Caetano +0.1-0.1*-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

## What If

Chances based on how well the Ponte Preta finish out the regular season.   Explain

 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance in Chance will finish regular season at seed Serie TP W - D - L playoffs 1 2 3 4 A2 Count 25 6 - 0 - 0 99.6 % 29 71 0 No 10,123,512 23 5 - 1 - 0 97.5 10 87 3 No 33,962,335 22 5 - 0 - 1 92.9 4 89 7 No 48,147,957 21 4 - 2 - 0 87.7 2 86 12 No 47,638,377 20 4 - 1 - 1 79.3 1 79 21 No 132,148,621 19 4 - 0 - 2 67.6 0 68 32 No 88,987,123 3 - 3 - 0 61.2 61 39 No 35,062,140 18 3 - 2 - 1 54.9 55 45 No 142,665,483 17 3 - 1 - 2 41.9 42 58 No 187,670,883 2 - 4 - 0 32.6 33 67 1 No 14,274,087 16 3 - 0 - 3 29.1 29 70 1 No 79,517,936 2 - 3 - 1 23.7 24 75 1 No 75,724,466 15 2 - 2 - 2 18.0 18 81 1 No 145,858,470 1 - 5 - 0 13.0 13 82 5 No 3,051,786 14 2 - 1 - 3 9.9 10 84 6 0.0 % 120,393,831 1 - 4 - 1 5.7 6 82 12 No 19,775,639 13 1 - 3 - 2 3.1 3 81 16 0.0 49,549,215 2 - 0 - 4 4.5 5 80 15 0.0 35,690,592 0 - 6 - 0 2.3 2 78 19 0.0 267,942 12 1 - 2 - 3 1.7 2 77 21 0.0 59,715,706 0 - 5 - 1 0.8 1 66 33 0.1 2,031,547 11 1 - 1 - 4 0.5 0 61 39 0.8 34,406,530 0 - 4 - 2 0.1 0 52 48 1.2 6,213,946 10 0 - 3 - 3 Out 45 55 7.6 9,727,640 1 - 0 - 5 0.1 0 45 55 6.1 7,521,460 9 0 - 2 - 4 Out 35 65 29.3 8,185,011 8 0 - 1 - 5 Out 19 81 64.5 3,489,313 7 0 - 0 - 6 Out 10 90 91.4 806,308 Total: 40.1 % 1 39 54 5 0.5 % 1,402,607,856
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

## Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

## Big Games

 Week of 4/17 100.0* Lottery seed Bragantino 2 Ponte Preta 0 +0.6 Ferroviaria 1 Guarani 2 -0.5 Novorizontino 3 Ferroviaria 1 -0.3 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Sao Caetano vs Ponte Preta +1.3+0.7-0.6 Inter de Limeira vs Ituano -0.1-0.1+0.0 Santos vs Bragantino +0.1+0.0-0.0 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Week of 4/25 100.0* Lottery seed Ponte Preta vs Inter de Limeira -0.6+0.7+1.3 Ponte Preta vs Mirassol -1.0+0.3+0.9 Ferroviaria vs Santo Andre +0.4-0.3-0.6 Bragantino vs Ferroviaria -0.3+0.0+0.7 Sao Caetano vs Ituano -0.1-0.1+0.0 Sao Bento vs Novorizontino +0.1-0.0-0.0 Ituano vs Sao Paulo +0.1-0.0-0.0 Santos vs Corinthians +0.1+0.0-0.0

## What If

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance will finish season at seed TP W - D - L 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 25 6 - 0 - 0 6 20 2 58 13 0 23 5 - 1 - 0 0 4 5 0 40 48 0 2 0 22 5 - 0 - 1 0 1 3 0 26 63 0 6 1 0 21 4 - 2 - 0 0 0 1 0 13 72 0 10 3 0 20 4 - 1 - 1 0 0 0 5 74 0 0 12 8 0 19 4 - 0 - 2 0 0 1 65 1 0 11 19 3 0 3 - 3 - 0 1 58 1 0 17 20 2 0 18 3 - 2 - 1 0 51 4 0 11 29 6 0 17 3 - 1 - 2 0 36 6 0 6 34 18 0 0 2 - 4 - 0 0 28 5 0 9 40 18 0 0 16 3 - 0 - 3 0 20 8 0 2 31 37 1 0 2 - 3 - 1 0 16 7 0 3 37 35 1 0 15 2 - 2 - 2 0 8 9 1 1 27 51 3 0 0 1 - 5 - 0 4 7 2 1 28 52 6 0 0 14 2 - 1 - 3 2 6 2 0 13 62 14 0 0 0 1 - 4 - 1 1 3 1 0 14 61 18 1 0 13 1 - 3 - 2 0 1 1 0 6 52 35 4 0 0 2 - 0 - 4 0 2 2 0 4 52 35 4 0 0 0 - 6 - 0 0 1 1 0 4 42 43 8 0 0 12 1 - 2 - 3 0 0 1 0 1 29 50 17 2 0 0 0 - 5 - 1 0 0 1 0 1 18 51 26 4 0 0 11 1 - 1 - 4 0 0 0 0 8 43 38 10 1 0 0 - 4 - 2 0 0 0 6 37 42 13 1 0 10 0 - 3 - 3 0 1 17 43 32 7 0 1 - 0 - 5 0 0 0 1 19 44 30 6 0 9 0 - 2 - 4 0 3 22 45 27 3 8 0 - 1 - 5 0 5 31 50 14 7 0 - 0 - 6 0 8 50 41 Total: 0 0 0 0 3 32 4 1 5 19 24 8 3 1 0 0