Gremio Esportivo Novorizontino Playoff Chances 2021

Tied Botafogo 2-2, playoff odds down 18.3 to 61.1%

19 points 5-4-2

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 4/25	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Palmeiras 0 Inter de Limeira 1	+11.9		+0.1
Palmeiras 1 Mirassol 2	+10.2		+0.1
Sao Bento 1 Novorizontino 1	-5.0		-0.2
Bragantino 0 Ferroviaria 0	+0.8		+0.1
Ituano 0 Sao Paulo 3	+0.1

Week of 5/1	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Novorizontino 2 Botafogo 2	-9.3		-0.2
Palmeiras 3 Santos 2	-8.4		-0.1
Guarani 2 Novorizontino 1	-8.1		-0.4
Santo Andre 0 Palmeiras 1	-2.2
Ferroviaria 1 Ituano 0	+1.2		+0.0
Ituano 2 Ponte Preta 1	-0.2
Bragantino 1 Santos 1			+0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/9	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Ponte Preta vs Palmeiras	In+4.9-28.4		+0.4+0.0-0.3
Corinthians vs Novorizontino	-25.6-6.8In		-0.3-0.1+0.5
Botafogo vs Bragantino			+0.3-0.0-0.0

Chances based on how well the Novorizontino finish out the regular season. Explain

								100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed				Serie
TP	W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	A2	Count

22	1	-	0	-	0	In		13	87			No	1,759,423,992
20	0	-	1	-	0	54.3	%		54	46		No	1,290,246,839
19	0	-	0	-	1	35.5			35	65		No	2,329,721,857

Total:						61.1	%	4	57	39		No	5,379,392,688

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 4/25	100.0*	Lottery seed
Sao Bento 1 Novorizontino 1	+0.6
Palmeiras 0 Inter de Limeira 1	-0.5
Palmeiras 1 Mirassol 2	-0.5
Bragantino 0 Ferroviaria 0	-0.3
Ituano 0 Sao Paulo 3	+0.0

Week of 5/1	100.0*	Lottery seed
Guarani 2 Novorizontino 1	+1.3
Novorizontino 2 Botafogo 2	+0.6
Bragantino 1 Santos 1	-0.4
Palmeiras 3 Santos 2	+0.3
Santo Andre 0 Palmeiras 1	+0.1
Sao Bento 2 Inter de Limeira 1	-0.1
Mirassol 1 Ferroviaria 3	+0.1
Ferroviaria 1 Ituano 0	+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/9	100.0*	Lottery seed
Corinthians vs Novorizontino	+1.2+0.5-2.0
Ponte Preta vs Palmeiras	-1.2-0.2+0.9
Botafogo vs Bragantino	-0.8+0.1+0.1
Sao Caetano vs Ferroviaria	-0.2-0.1+0.1

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16

22	1	-	0	-	0		13			87
20	0	-	1	-	0					18	37			46
19	0	-	0	-	1					5	31			65

Total:							4			35	22			39