SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Mirassol Futebol Clube Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 5.8 to 85.5%

8 points 2-2-2

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 4/17	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Serie A2	100.0*	Average seed
Ferroviaria 1 Guarani 2	-6.1		+0.2		-0.1
Bragantino 2 Mirassol 1	-1.8		+0.3		-0.1
Sao Bento 1 Sao Caetano 1	+0.1		-0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Mirassol vs Botafogo	+7.2-6.0-14.2		-0.7-0.0+2.0		+0.2-0.2-0.4
Novorizontino vs Santos	+2.4-0.7-8.6		-0.0+0.0+0.1		+0.1-0.0-0.2
Santos vs Bragantino	-8.7-0.8+2.3		+0.1+0.0-0.0		-0.2-0.0+0.1
Guarani vs Palmeiras	-5.2-0.3+2.1		+0.1+0.0-0.0		-0.2+0.0+0.1
Novorizontino vs Guarani	+1.8-0.6-5.4		-0.0+0.0+0.1		+0.1-0.0-0.2
Sao Caetano vs Ponte Preta	-0.7+0.0+0.1		+0.3*+0.0-0.1
Inter de Limeira vs Ituano			+0.5+0.0-0.1
Sao Bento vs Inter de Limeira			+0.0-0.1+0.0
Sao Paulo vs Santo Andre			-0.0+0.0+0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/25	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Serie A2	100.0*	Average seed
Ponte Preta vs Mirassol	-8.0-1.0+9.5		+0.7-0.2-0.7		-0.2-0.0+0.3
Palmeiras vs Mirassol	-5.4+0.9+10.2		+0.4-0.3-0.7		-0.2+0.0+0.3
Santos vs Corinthians	-8.3-0.3+2.8		+0.1+0.0-0.0		-0.2+0.0+0.1
Santo Andre vs Guarani	+3.4+0.9-4.4				+0.1+0.0-0.2
Sao Caetano vs Ituano	-0.7+0.0+0.1		+0.3-0.0-0.1
Botafogo vs Sao Caetano	+0.2+0.1-0.4		+0.0-0.1+0.1
Ponte Preta vs Inter de Limeira			-0.1+0.0+0.5
Sao Bento vs Novorizontino			+0.4+0.0-0.1
Palmeiras vs Inter de Limeira			-0.1+0.1+0.5
Ferroviaria vs Santo Andre			-0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Mirassol finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed				Serie
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	A2		Count

26		6	-	0	-	0	In		100				No		2,360,412
24		5	-	1	-	0	In		100	0			No		9,697,443
23		5	-	0	-	1	100.0	%	100	0	0		No		17,868,540
22		4	-	2	-	0	100.0		100	0	0		No		17,795,995
21		4	-	1	-	1	100.0		99	1	0		No		64,264,119
20		4	-	0	-	2	100.0		97	3	0		No		57,148,476
		3	-	3	-	0	100.0		96	4	0		No		16,972,747
19		3	-	2	-	1	99.9		95	5	0		No		90,088,266
18		3	-	1	-	2	99.7		89	11	0		No		156,808,241
		2	-	4	-	0	99.4		84	15	1		No		8,874,929
17		3	-	0	-	3	99.1		81	18	1	0	No		89,388,653
		2	-	3	-	1	98.7		77	22	1	0	No		61,548,938
16		2	-	2	-	2	97.1		68	29	3	0	No		157,316,969
		1	-	5	-	0	95.0		60	35	5	0	No		2,417,816
15		2	-	1	-	3	92.4		52	41	8	0	No		175,458,830
		1	-	4	-	1	88.5		43	46	12	0	No		20,509,197
14		2	-	0	-	4	85.8		38	48	14	0	0.0	%	71,910,611
		1	-	3	-	2	82.0		31	51	18	0	0.0		68,406,909
		0	-	6	-	0	77.0		26	51	23	0	No		267,106
13		1	-	2	-	3	70.9		21	50	29	0	0.0		111,865,118
		0	-	5	-	1	60.5		14	47	39	0	0.0		2,668,224
12		1	-	1	-	4	52.5		10	43	46	1	0.1		89,445,352
		0	-	4	-	2	41.7		6	36	57	2	0.1		10,883,412
11		1	-	0	-	5	36.0		4	32	61	3	0.7		27,924,723
		0	-	3	-	3	30.1		3	28	66	4	1.6		23,148,862
10		0	-	2	-	4	17.8		1	17	76	7	7.9		27,021,420
9		0	-	1	-	5	5.6		0	6	80	14	26.2		16,347,875
8		0	-	0	-	6	0.5			1	76	23	54.9		4,198,673

Total:							85.5	%	59	27	14	1	0.7	%	1,402,607,856

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 4/17	100.0*	Lottery seed
Ferroviaria 1 Guarani 2	+0.5
Bragantino 2 Mirassol 1	+0.4
Sao Bento 1 Sao Caetano 1	-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Mirassol vs Botafogo	-0.8+0.7+1.6
Novorizontino vs Santos	-0.2+0.0+0.8
Santos vs Bragantino	+0.8+0.1-0.2
Novorizontino vs Guarani	-0.2+0.0+0.7
Guarani vs Palmeiras	+0.7+0.0-0.3

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/25	100.0*	Lottery seed
Ponte Preta vs Mirassol	+1.0+0.2-1.2
Palmeiras vs Mirassol	+0.7-0.0-1.3
Santos vs Corinthians	+0.7-0.0-0.2
Santo Andre vs Guarani	-0.4-0.2+0.5

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16

26		6	-	0	-	0	27	55	19
24		5	-	1	-	0	2	29	60	9	0	0
23		5	-	0	-	1	0	10	63	27	0	0	0		0
22		4	-	2	-	0	0	2	55	42	0	0	0		0
21		4	-	1	-	1	0	0	33	66	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
20		4	-	0	-	2		0	17	80	0	2	1	0	0	0	0
		3	-	3	-	0			16	81	0	3	1	0	0	0	0
19		3	-	2	-	1			9	86	0	3	2	0	0	0	0	0
18		3	-	1	-	2			2	87	0	5	6	0	0	0	0	0
		2	-	4	-	0				84	0	7	8	0	0	0	0	0
17		3	-	0	-	3				81	0	4	14	1	0	0	0	0	0
		2	-	3	-	1				77	0	5	17	1	0	1	0	0	0
16		2	-	2	-	2				68	0	3	24	3	0	1	2	0	0
		1	-	5	-	0				60	0	4	28	3	0	2	3	1	0
15		2	-	1	-	3				52	0	1	31	9	0	1	4	2	0	0
		1	-	4	-	1				43		1	36	9	0	1	6	4	0	0
14		2	-	0	-	4				38		0	31	17	0	1	5	8	0	0	0
		1	-	3	-	2				31		0	32	18	0	1	6	10	1	0	0
		0	-	6	-	0				26		0	31	20	0	1	8	13	2	0
13		1	-	2	-	3				21		0	20	30	0	0	5	19	4	0	0
		0	-	5	-	1				14		0	17	29	0	0	6	25	8	0	0
12		1	-	1	-	4				10		0	8	34	0	0	3	28	15	2	0	0
		0	-	4	-	2				6		0	8	29		0	2	29	23	4	0	0
11		1	-	0	-	5				4			2	30		0	1	22	31	10	1	0
		0	-	3	-	3				3			2	25		0	0	17	35	16	2	0
10		0	-	2	-	4				1			0	17			0	7	33	34	8	0
9		0	-	1	-	5				0			0	6			0	1	19	48	25	2
8		0	-	0	-	6								1				0	4	40	48	7

Total:							0	0	5	53	0	2	15	10	0	0	2	6	4	2	1	0