Mirassol Futebol Clube Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 3.6 to 4.4%

5 points 1-2-4

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 2/16	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Serie A2	100.0*	Average seed
Corinthians 2 Sao Paulo 1	-2.7		+1.0		-0.1
Sao Caetano 4 Bragantino 4	+0.9		-1.2		+0.0
Ferroviaria 0 Palmeiras 0	-0.3		+0.1		-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Mirassol vs Sao Bento	+3.8-2.4-3.4		-19.8+5.1+22.9		+0.2-0.1-0.1
Bragantino vs Novorizontino	-1.6+0.2+1.2		+0.3+0.1-0.3		-0.1+0.0+0.0
Oeste vs Sao Bento			-1.6+0.3+7.7

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 2/23	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Serie A2	100.0*	Average seed
Ferroviaria vs Oeste	-1.6+0.2+1.1		+0.2+0.1-0.2		-0.1+0.0+0.0
Botafogo vs Corinthians	+1.3+0.4-1.2		+5.1-0.3-3.7
Guarani vs Sao Caetano			-3.0+0.1+8.3
Sao Paulo vs Red Bull			+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Ponte Preta vs Ituano			+0.1*+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Mirassol finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed				Serie
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	A2		Count

20		5	-	0	-	0	98.6	%	80	19	1	0	No		20,543
18		4	-	1	-	0	86.4		45	41	12	1	No		102,376
17		4	-	0	-	1	76.7		32	45	20	3	No		246,796
16		3	-	2	-	0	53.2		14	40	36	11	No		245,311
15		3	-	1	-	1	36.1		7	30	43	21	No		1,146,579
14		3	-	0	-	2	22.2		3	19	45	33	0.0	%	1,323,217
		2	-	3	-	0	16.4		2	15	44	40	0.0		269,645
13		2	-	2	-	1	7.4		0	7	36	57	0.1		1,820,044
12		2	-	1	-	2	2.6		0	3	24	73	1.0		4,042,829
		1	-	4	-	0	1.3		0	1	18	81	1.0		136,285
11		2	-	0	-	3	0.8		0	1	15	85	5.4		2,946,649
		1	-	3	-	1	0.4		0	0	12	88	6.9		1,193,127
10		1	-	2	-	2	0.1			0	5	95	22.3		3,850,437
		0	-	5	-	0	0.0			0	2	98	18.6		25,649
9		1	-	1	-	3	0.0			0	1	99	46.5		5,439,041
		0	-	4	-	1	Out					100	44.8		275,811
5	-8						Out					100	87.7		9,688,669	*

Total:							4.4	%	1	4	12	84	37.5	%	32,773,008

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 2/16	100.0*	Lottery seed
Corinthians 2 Sao Paulo 1	+0.2
Sao Caetano 4 Bragantino 4	-0.1
Ferroviaria 0 Palmeiras 0	+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Mirassol vs Sao Bento	-0.9+0.3+1.0
Oeste vs Sao Bento	-0.0-0.0+0.2
Bragantino vs Novorizontino	+0.1-0.0-0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 2/23	100.0*	Lottery seed
Guarani vs Sao Caetano	-0.1-0.0+0.2
Ferroviaria vs Oeste	+0.1-0.0-0.1
Botafogo vs Corinthians	+0.1-0.0-0.0

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16

20	5	-	0	-	0	0	9	49	22	3	12	3	0	1	0
18	4	-	1	-	0		0	9	36	0	10	25	6	6	6	1	0
17	4	-	0	-	1		0	2	29	0	3	24	17	7	12	4	0	0
16	3	-	2	-	0			0	13		0	10	29	4	18	19	6	0
15	3	-	1	-	1			0	7		0	3	27	1	12	28	19	3	0
14	3	-	0	-	2			0	3		0	0	19	0	5	25	35	12	0	0
	2	-	3	-	0				2		0	0	15	0	3	22	41	17	0	0
13	2	-	2	-	1				0			0	7	0	0	8	40	40	4	0	0
12	2	-	1	-	2				0			0	3	0	0	2	23	56	16	1	0
	1	-	4	-	0				0			0	1		0	1	19	62	15	1	0
11	2	-	0	-	3				0				1		0	0	8	50	36	5	0
	1	-	3	-	1				0				0		0	0	6	51	36	7	0
10	1	-	2	-	2								0			0	1	29	48	20	2
	0	-	5	-	0								0				0	36	45	17	2
9	1	-	1	-	3								0				0	11	43	39	8
	0	-	4	-	1													13	42	36	9
8	1	-	0	-	4													2	23	54	21
	0	-	3	-	2													3	23	48	26
7	0	-	2	-	3													0	7	42	51
6	0	-	1	-	4														0	20	80
5	0	-	0	-	5																100

Total:						0	0	0	1	0	0	0	3	0	1	3	9	22	23	21	17