How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

 Week of 4/17 100.0* Chance in playoffs 100.0* Serie A2 100.0* Average seed Ferroviaria 1 Guarani 2 -15.3 -0.2 Novorizontino 3 Ferroviaria 1 -9.7 -0.2 Bragantino 2 Ponte Preta 0 +8.3 +0.1 Sao Bento 1 Sao Caetano 1 +0.2 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Sao Caetano vs Ponte Preta +17.5+10.9-8.1 +0.2+0.1-0.1 Sao Bento vs Inter de Limeira -0.3+0.3+0.3 Sao Paulo vs Santo Andre -0.0+0.0+0.1 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Week of 4/25 100.0* Chance in playoffs 100.0* Serie A2 100.0* Average seed Ferroviaria vs Santo Andre +11.9-7.7-16.5 -0.0-0.0+0.1 +0.1-0.1-0.2 Ponte Preta vs Mirassol -14.6+5.3+12.6 -0.1+0.1+0.1 Bragantino vs Ferroviaria -7.9+0.7+18.5 -0.1+0.0+0.2 Ponte Preta vs Inter de Limeira -8.4+10.6+17.2 -0.1+0.1+0.2 Sao Bento vs Novorizontino -1.1+0.1+0.3 -0.1+0.0+0.0 Ituano vs Sao Paulo +0.1*+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Ferroviaria finish out the regular season.   Explain

 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance in Chance will finish regular season at seed Serie TP W - D - L playoffs 1 2 3 4 A2 Count 25 5 - 0 - 0 99.7 % 28 71 0 No 16,689,822 23 4 - 1 - 0 98.1 10 88 2 No 51,411,944 22 4 - 0 - 1 95.2 4 91 5 No 80,540,319 21 3 - 2 - 0 91.7 2 90 8 No 61,701,998 20 3 - 1 - 1 84.9 1 84 15 No 185,280,586 19 3 - 0 - 2 77.1 0 77 23 No 132,414,681 2 - 3 - 0 72.8 73 27 No 35,845,990 18 2 - 2 - 1 66.0 66 34 No 155,559,680 17 2 - 1 - 2 54.1 54 46 No 214,956,783 1 - 4 - 0 47.0 47 52 1 No 10,128,651 16 2 - 0 - 3 43.3 43 56 1 No 94,568,733 1 - 3 - 1 37.8 38 61 1 No 56,609,748 15 1 - 2 - 2 29.7 30 69 1 No 113,363,858 0 - 5 - 0 24.1 24 72 4 No 1,115,770 14 1 - 1 - 3 19.3 19 75 6 0.0 % 96,154,692 0 - 4 - 1 13.9 14 74 12 No 7,531,769 13 1 - 0 - 4 11.8 12 74 14 0.0 28,886,156 0 - 3 - 2 9.2 9 76 15 0.0 19,433,829 12 0 - 2 - 3 5.5 6 74 20 0.0 23,763,564 11 0 - 1 - 4 2.2 2 60 38 0.7 13,595,890 10 0 - 0 - 5 0.8 1 45 54 5.5 3,053,393 Total: 59.3 % 1 58 39 2 0.0 % 1,402,607,856
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

 Week of 4/17 100.0* Lottery seed Ferroviaria 1 Guarani 2 +1.1 Novorizontino 3 Ferroviaria 1 +0.9 Bragantino 2 Ponte Preta 0 -0.3 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Sao Caetano vs Ponte Preta -0.7-0.4+0.3 Inter de Limeira vs Ituano -0.1-0.0+0.0 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Week of 4/25 100.0* Lottery seed Ferroviaria vs Santo Andre -0.7+0.4+1.0 Bragantino vs Ferroviaria +0.5-0.0-1.2 Ponte Preta vs Mirassol +0.6-0.2-0.5 Ponte Preta vs Inter de Limeira +0.3-0.4-0.7 Sao Caetano vs Ituano -0.1-0.0+0.0 Palmeiras vs Inter de Limeira +0.0-0.0-0.1

What If

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance will finish season at seed TP W - D - L 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 25 5 - 0 - 0 10 17 2 62 9 0 23 4 - 1 - 0 0 4 5 0 41 47 0 2 0 22 4 - 0 - 1 0 1 3 0 25 66 0 4 0 0 21 3 - 2 - 0 0 0 1 0 11 78 0 6 2 0 20 3 - 1 - 1 0 0 0 4 80 0 0 9 5 0 19 3 - 0 - 2 0 0 1 75 1 0 10 12 2 0 2 - 3 - 0 1 71 1 0 11 15 1 0 18 2 - 2 - 1 0 62 4 0 8 21 5 0 17 2 - 1 - 2 0 46 8 0 6 26 14 0 0 1 - 4 - 0 0 40 7 0 6 31 16 0 0 16 2 - 0 - 3 0 30 13 1 3 24 29 1 0 1 - 3 - 1 0 26 12 1 3 30 29 1 0 15 1 - 2 - 2 0 12 15 2 1 22 44 3 0 0 0 - 5 - 0 9 13 2 1 22 47 6 0 14 1 - 1 - 3 4 11 4 0 11 57 12 0 0 0 0 - 4 - 1 2 8 3 0 12 55 18 1 0 13 1 - 0 - 4 1 6 5 0 4 51 30 3 0 0 0 - 3 - 2 0 4 4 0 5 49 33 4 0 0 12 0 - 2 - 3 0 1 4 0 1 29 47 16 2 0 0 11 0 - 1 - 4 0 0 2 0 9 41 37 10 1 0 10 0 - 0 - 5 0 1 0 1 18 44 30 5 0 Total: 0 0 1 0 5 47 5 1 5 14 16 4 1 0 0 0