How are these numbers calculated?

## Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Week of 2/19 100.0* Chance in playoffs 100.0* Average seed Botafogo vs Madureira -12.9-5.6+16.4 -0.6-0.2+0.7 Madureira vs Boavista +16.4-5.6-12.9 +0.7-0.2-0.6 Volta Redonda vs Flamengo -3.3+1.1+2.6 -0.1+0.0+0.1 Nova Iguacu vs Botafogo -3.3+1.1+2.6 -0.1+0.0+0.1 Portuguesa vs Cabofriense -3.3+1.1+2.6 -0.1+0.0+0.1 Boavista vs Nova Iguacu +2.6+1.1-3.3 +0.1+0.0-0.1 Bangu vs Portuguesa +2.6+1.1-3.3 +0.1+0.0-0.1 Macae vs Fluminense +2.6+1.1-3.3 +0.1+0.0-0.1 Flamengo vs Vasco da Gama +2.6+1.1-3.3 +0.1+0.0-0.1 Fluminense vs Bangu -3.3+1.1+2.6 -0.1+0.0+0.1 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Week of 2/26 100.0* Chance in playoffs 100.0* Average seed Madureira vs Macae +16.4-5.6-12.9 +0.7-0.2-0.6 Portuguesa vs Botafogo -3.3+1.1+2.6 -0.1+0.0+0.1 Cabofriense vs Volta Redonda +2.6+1.1-3.3 +0.1+0.0-0.1 Vasco da Gama vs Boavista -3.3+1.1+2.6 -0.1+0.0+0.1 Vasco da Gama vs Macae -3.3+1.1+2.6 -0.1+0.0+0.1 Bangu vs Volta Redonda +2.6+1.1-3.3 +0.1+0.0-0.1 Fluminense vs Flamengo -3.3+1.1+2.6 -0.1+0.0+0.1 Nova Iguacu vs Cabofriense -3.3+1.1+2.6 -0.1+0.0+0.1

## What If

Chances based on how well the Madureira finish out the regular season.   Explain

 100 100 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance in Chance will finish regular season at seed TP W - D - L playoffs 1 2 3 4 5 6 Count 18 6 - 0 - 0 100.0 % 99 1 0 0 85,043,852 16 5 - 1 - 0 99.9 96 4 0 0 0 301,385,371 15 5 - 0 - 1 99.4 89 11 1 0 0 0 477,444,446 14 4 - 2 - 0 98.4 81 18 2 0 0 0 475,561,450 13 4 - 1 - 1 94.5 66 28 5 0 0 0 1,506,862,216 12 4 - 0 - 2 86.9 50 37 11 2 0 0 1,193,572,935 3 - 3 - 0 81.5 42 40 15 3 0 0 400,276,464 11 3 - 2 - 1 72.8 32 41 21 5 1 0 1,902,383,021 10 3 - 1 - 2 53.5 18 36 30 13 3 0 3,013,719,231 2 - 4 - 0 41.3 11 30 34 19 5 1 189,507,537 9 3 - 0 - 3 35.3 8 27 34 22 7 1 1,591,448,603 2 - 3 - 1 26.5 5 21 34 27 11 2 1,200,819,524 8 2 - 2 - 2 16.5 3 14 30 32 18 4 2,853,546,688 1 - 5 - 0 10.7 1 9 25 34 23 6 47,843,693 7 2 - 1 - 3 6.6 1 6 20 34 29 11 3,013,792,894 1 - 4 - 1 3.2 0 3 13 31 36 17 378,996,885 6 1 - 3 - 2 1.1 0 1 7 24 40 28 1,200,830,757 2 - 0 - 4 2.2 0 2 11 28 38 21 1,193,583,259 0 - 6 - 0 0.7 0 1 5 21 41 32 5,036,457 5 1 - 2 - 3 0.4 0 0 3 16 40 40 1,902,339,765 0 - 5 - 1 0.1 0 0 2 11 37 50 47,851,096 4 1 - 1 - 4 0.1 0 0 1 8 33 59 1,506,868,183 0 - 4 - 2 0.0 0 0 0 4 26 70 189,540,735 3 1 - 0 - 5 0.0 0 0 0 3 22 75 477,446,663 0 - 3 - 3 0.0 0 0 0 1 17 81 400,297,747 2 0 - 2 - 4 0.0 0 0 0 1 11 89 475,614,104 1 0 - 1 - 5 0.0 0 0 0 4 96 301,360,720 0 0 - 0 - 6 Out 0 0 1 99 85,055,824 Total: 33.3 % 17 17 17 17 17 17 26,418,030,120
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

## Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

## Big Games

 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Week of 2/19 100.0* Lottery seed Botafogo vs Madureira +1.4+0.4-1.6 Madureira vs Boavista -1.6+0.4+1.4 Boavista vs Nova Iguacu +0.0-0.1+0.0 Nova Iguacu vs Botafogo +0.0-0.1+0.0 Portuguesa vs Cabofriense +0.0-0.1+0.0 Flamengo vs Vasco da Gama +0.0-0.1+0.0 Bangu vs Portuguesa +0.0-0.1+0.0 Macae vs Fluminense +0.0-0.1+0.0 Volta Redonda vs Flamengo +0.0-0.1+0.0 Fluminense vs Bangu +0.0-0.1+0.0 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Week of 2/26 100.0* Lottery seed Madureira vs Macae -1.6+0.4+1.4 Vasco da Gama vs Macae +0.0-0.1+0.0 Portuguesa vs Botafogo +0.0-0.1+0.0 Cabofriense vs Volta Redonda +0.0-0.1+0.0 Fluminense vs Flamengo +0.0-0.1+0.0 Bangu vs Volta Redonda +0.0-0.1+0.0 Vasco da Gama vs Boavista +0.0-0.1+0.0 Nova Iguacu vs Cabofriense +0.0-0.1+0.0

## What If

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance will finish season at seed TP W - D - L 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 18 6 - 0 - 0 99 1 0 0 16 5 - 1 - 0 95 5 0 0 0 15 5 - 0 - 1 82 17 1 0 0 0 14 4 - 2 - 0 74 24 2 0 0 0 13 4 - 1 - 1 45 42 11 1 0 0 0 12 4 - 0 - 2 17 41 31 9 1 0 0 0 3 - 3 - 0 19 42 29 8 1 0 0 0 11 3 - 2 - 1 6 27 40 22 5 0 0 0 10 3 - 1 - 2 0 5 22 36 26 9 1 0 0 0 2 - 4 - 0 0 3 17 35 31 12 2 0 0 9 3 - 0 - 3 0 0 3 15 33 31 14 3 0 0 0 2 - 3 - 1 0 0 3 14 32 32 15 3 0 0 0 8 2 - 2 - 2 0 0 0 2 11 29 35 18 4 0 0 0 1 - 5 - 0 0 0 0 5 23 39 25 6 0 0 7 2 - 1 - 3 0 0 0 5 21 36 27 9 1 0 1 - 4 - 1 0 0 0 0 2 13 32 35 15 2 0 6 1 - 3 - 2 0 0 0 2 13 33 35 15 2 2 - 0 - 4 0 0 0 3 15 35 33 12 1 0 - 6 - 0 0 0 1 11 33 38 15 2 5 1 - 2 - 3 0 0 0 2 14 37 36 10 0 - 5 - 1 0 0 1 8 32 44 16 4 1 - 1 - 4 0 0 0 2 17 46 35 0 - 4 - 2 0 0 1 10 43 46 3 1 - 0 - 5 0 0 0 4 32 64 0 - 3 - 3 0 0 0 3 29 68 2 0 - 2 - 4 0 0 0 1 15 85 1 0 - 1 - 5 0 0 0 5 95 0 0 - 0 - 6 0 0 1 99 Total: 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8