"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 2/19100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Macae vs Fluminense+15.8-6.1-13.4
+0.7-0.2-0.6
Fluminense vs Bangu+2.5+1.0-3.4
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Nova Iguacu vs Botafogo+2.5+1.0-3.4
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Volta Redonda vs Flamengo+2.5+1.0-3.4
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Portuguesa vs Cabofriense+2.5+1.0-3.4
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Madureira vs Boavista+2.5+1.0-3.4
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Flamengo vs Vasco da Gama-3.2+1.2+2.7
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Boavista vs Nova Iguacu-3.2+1.2+2.7
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Bangu vs Portuguesa-3.2+1.2+2.7
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Botafogo vs Madureira-3.2+1.2+2.7
-0.1+0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 2/26100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Vasco da Gama vs Macae-12.5-5.0+17.1
-0.6-0.2+0.7
Madureira vs Macae-12.5-5.0+17.1
-0.6-0.2+0.7
Portuguesa vs Botafogo+2.5+1.0-3.4
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Vasco da Gama vs Boavista+2.5+1.0-3.4
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Fluminense vs Flamengo+2.5+1.0-3.4
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Nova Iguacu vs Cabofriense+2.5+1.0-3.4
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Cabofriense vs Volta Redonda-3.2+1.2+2.7
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Bangu vs Volta Redonda-3.2+1.2+2.7
-0.1+0.0+0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Macae finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPW-D-Lplayoffs123456Count
186-0-0100.0%9910060,873,941
165-1-099.9964000216,103,920
155-0-199.489111000343,193,682
144-2-098.481182000341,677,223
134-1-194.5662850001,084,608,562
124-0-287.0503711200860,236,494
3-3-081.6424015300287,969,069
113-2-172.93241215101,370,543,080
103-1-253.518363013302,173,159,625
2-4-041.41130341951136,456,169
93-0-335.38273422711,148,116,172
2-3-126.55213427112865,467,408
82-2-216.531430321842,057,703,367
1-5-010.719253423634,476,250
72-1-36.616203429112,173,072,640
1-4-13.10313313617273,173,750
61-3-21.1017244028865,539,291
2-0-42.20211283821860,304,067
0-6-00.70152141323,625,890
51-2-30.40031640401,370,501,757
0-5-10.100211375034,459,552
41-1-40.1001833591,084,537,998
0-4-20.000042670136,465,113
31-0-50.000032275343,162,838
0-3-30.000011781287,980,081
20-2-40.000011189341,657,885
10-1-50.0000496216,121,382
00-0-6Out0019960,877,546
Total:33.3%17171717171719,032,064,752
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 2/19100.0*Lottery seed
Macae vs Fluminense-1.6+0.5+1.4
Flamengo vs Vasco da Gama+0.0-0.1+0.0
Bangu vs Portuguesa+0.0-0.1+0.0
Boavista vs Nova Iguacu+0.0-0.1+0.0
Botafogo vs Madureira+0.0-0.1+0.0
Fluminense vs Bangu+0.0-0.1+0.0
Volta Redonda vs Flamengo+0.0-0.1+0.0
Portuguesa vs Cabofriense+0.0-0.1+0.0
Madureira vs Boavista+0.0-0.1+0.0
Nova Iguacu vs Botafogo+0.0-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 2/26100.0*Lottery seed
Vasco da Gama vs Macae+1.3+0.3-1.7
Madureira vs Macae+1.3+0.3-1.7
Bangu vs Volta Redonda+0.0-0.1+0.0
Cabofriense vs Volta Redonda+0.0-0.1+0.0
Portuguesa vs Botafogo+0.0-0.1+0.0
Fluminense vs Flamengo+0.0-0.1+0.0
Vasco da Gama vs Boavista+0.0-0.1+0.0
Nova Iguacu vs Cabofriense+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L123456789101112
186-0-099100
165-1-0955000
155-0-182171000
144-2-074242000
134-1-14542111000
124-0-218423191000
3-3-019432981000
113-2-162740225000
103-1-20522362691000
2-4-00317353112200
93-0-3003153331143000
2-3-1003143232153000
82-2-20002112935184000
1-5-000005233926600
72-1-30005213627910
1-4-100021332351520
61-3-20002133336152
2-0-40003153533121
0-6-0001113338152
51-2-3000214373610
0-5-10018324416
41-1-40002174635
0-4-20001104346
31-0-500043264
0-3-300032868
20-2-400011585
10-1-5000595
00-0-600199
Total:888888888888