"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 2/19100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Portuguesa vs Cabofriense-12.9-5.6+16.4
-0.6-0.2+0.7
Madureira vs Boavista+2.6+1.1-3.3
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Fluminense vs Bangu+2.6+1.1-3.3
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Botafogo vs Madureira-3.3+1.1+2.6
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Volta Redonda vs Flamengo+2.6+1.1-3.3
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Flamengo vs Vasco da Gama-3.3+1.1+2.6
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Bangu vs Portuguesa-3.3+1.1+2.6
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Boavista vs Nova Iguacu-3.3+1.1+2.6
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Macae vs Fluminense-3.3+1.1+2.6
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Nova Iguacu vs Botafogo+2.6+1.1-3.3
+0.1+0.0-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 2/26100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Nova Iguacu vs Cabofriense-12.9-5.6+16.4
-0.6-0.2+0.7
Cabofriense vs Volta Redonda+16.4-5.6-12.9
+0.7-0.2-0.6
Vasco da Gama vs Macae+2.6+1.1-3.3
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Vasco da Gama vs Boavista+2.6+1.1-3.3
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Bangu vs Volta Redonda-3.3+1.1+2.6
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Portuguesa vs Botafogo+2.6+1.1-3.3
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Madureira vs Macae+2.6+1.1-3.3
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Fluminense vs Flamengo+2.6+1.1-3.3
+0.1+0.0-0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Cabofriense finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPW-D-Lplayoffs123456Count
186-0-0100.0%9910085,044,715
165-1-099.9964000301,361,672
155-0-199.489111000477,423,080
144-2-098.481182000475,583,152
134-1-194.5662850001,506,813,157
124-0-286.95037112001,193,549,350
3-3-081.5424015300400,267,089
113-2-172.83241215101,902,388,156
103-1-253.518363013303,013,713,327
2-4-041.31130341951189,496,130
93-0-335.38273422711,591,466,496
2-3-126.552134271121,200,844,235
82-2-216.531430321842,853,577,840
1-5-010.719253423647,846,031
72-1-36.616203429113,013,779,465
1-4-13.20313313617379,004,822
61-3-21.10172440281,200,795,706
2-0-42.202112838211,193,615,633
0-6-00.70152141325,030,649
51-2-30.40031640401,902,370,784
0-5-10.100211375047,853,394
41-1-40.1001833591,506,875,122
0-4-20.000042670189,518,816
31-0-50.000032275477,452,879
0-3-30.000011781400,316,759
20-2-40.000011189475,632,499
10-1-50.0000496301,375,033
00-0-6Out0019985,034,129
Total:33.3%17171717171726,418,030,120
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 2/19100.0*Lottery seed
Portuguesa vs Cabofriense+1.4+0.4-1.6
Madureira vs Boavista+0.0-0.1+0.0
Fluminense vs Bangu+0.0-0.1+0.0
Botafogo vs Madureira+0.0-0.1+0.0
Nova Iguacu vs Botafogo+0.0-0.1+0.0
Macae vs Fluminense+0.0-0.1+0.0
Boavista vs Nova Iguacu+0.0-0.1+0.0
Bangu vs Portuguesa+0.0-0.1+0.0
Volta Redonda vs Flamengo+0.0-0.1+0.0
Flamengo vs Vasco da Gama+0.0-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 2/26100.0*Lottery seed
Nova Iguacu vs Cabofriense+1.4+0.4-1.6
Cabofriense vs Volta Redonda-1.6+0.4+1.4
Vasco da Gama vs Boavista+0.0-0.1+0.0
Vasco da Gama vs Macae+0.0-0.1+0.0
Bangu vs Volta Redonda+0.0-0.1+0.0
Portuguesa vs Botafogo+0.0-0.1+0.0
Fluminense vs Flamengo+0.0-0.1+0.0
Madureira vs Macae+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L123456789101112
186-0-099100
165-1-0955000
155-0-182171000
144-2-074242000
134-1-14542111000
124-0-217413191000
3-3-019422981000
113-2-162740225000
103-1-20522362691000
2-4-00317353112200
93-0-30031533311430000
2-3-1003143232153000
82-2-20002112935184000
1-5-00005233925600
72-1-300005213627910
1-4-1000021332351520
61-3-20002133335152
2-0-40003153533121
0-6-0001113338152
51-2-3000214373610
0-5-10018324416
41-1-40002174635
0-4-20001104346
31-0-500043264
0-3-300032968
20-2-400011585
10-1-5000595
00-0-600199
Total:888888888888